SwiftVets.com

msindependent · Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:41 am Post subject: Interesting Take on the Polls

http://denbeste.nu/special/polltrends.shtml

Forgive me if this link has been posted before. This guy has some interesting ideas about what has been going on in the polls.

lrb111 · Captain Joined: 28 Jul 2004 Posts: 508

There's no question they have been gimmicked. There was a link to a story that showed whatever they polss say, htey are anywhere from 5 to 10 points light in their support for GWB.
_________________
said Democratic Chairman Terry McAuliffe. "It is inexcusable to mock service and sacrifice."
well, when even the DNC can see it,,,,, then kerry is toast.

Nathanyl · PO3 Joined: 24 Aug 2004 Posts: 280

Yep. You can't pay attention to the raw numbers of any of the polls. Just watch the trends or you'll go nuts. For instance Zogby has gone from Bush up by 4 to the election being a dead heat in the last 2 days. A 4 percent change in 2 days isn't very likely, in particular when all the other polls show Bush trending up. Zogby states that were seeing the results of Kerry winning the last debate. Errr excuse me that debate was over a week ago and the result of it has shown Bush trending up and has been since the middle of last week when you'd expect to start seeing how the debate effected the election.
_________________
Bill Hershey
www.worldwar4.net

jimlarsen · Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2004 2:53 pm Post subject:

It looks like Zogby decided to scew the poll back in Kerry's favour since it didn't naturally trend that way. The conclusion at the above link seems to be that there was some manipulation to make Bush look good, but that the anticipated rise for Kerry hasn't materialized. We might find more polls suddenly dropping Bush's numbers as they realize that the real trend favours Bush.

Also, looking at the chart at
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html
it appears that there's about a 4 week cycle in the spread. It also appears that the center of the spread has shifted from 0 to about 3. With a 4 week cycle the trend would continue to be down for Bush (favoring Kerry) this week with a point of inflexion at about 3 by weekend, and next week should start a new cycle with an upward tread (favoring Bush).

If this was a stock I'd sure want to be long on Bush. All in fun of course. Now where's that Oct. surprise.
_________________
-I'm Jim, and I approve what I write, unless it's wrong.
Speak softly and carry a BIG STICK. -T. Roosevelt
Need some WOOD? -G. Bush

Steve Z · Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2004 3:35 pm Post subject: Rasmussen poll

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Today's Rasmussen poll shows race tightening: Bush 47.5 Kerry 47.3

Rasmussen says that "The New York Times and Senator Kerry have brought Social Security back into the campaign over the past two days. An earlier Rasmussen Reports survey found voters evenly divided as to which is riskier--letting workers invest on their own or relying on the federal government for promised benefits. As you would expect, there are huge generational differences on this issue."

The New York Times recently published some allegedly "secret" quote from Bush that he intended to "privatize" Social Security in January. It's totally bogus, because Greenspan said that doing NOTHING to Social Security would lead to higher taxes or lower benefits or both, so Bush's plan to allow younger workers to allocate part of the Social Security taxes to an investment plan is the ONLY way to save Social Security.

Something needs to be done about this--could another SBVT ad which talks about Kerry's proposed withdrawal from Vietnam, its disastrous consequences, and Kerry's plan to withdraw from Iraq shift the focus of the campaign away from Social Security and scaring senior citizens?
_________________
The traitor will crater!