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Newsweek poll: Bush lead gone
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3rd gen Navy
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doc Jerry,
could please post the source for your analysis of the internals? I seem to have missed it. My wife and I just dissected this "poll" as a piece of unsubstantiated spin. It would be nice to be able to see that we were right.
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neverforget
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Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3rd gen Navy wrote:
Doc Jerry,
could please post the source for your analysis of the internals? I seem to have missed it. My wife and I just dissected this "poll" as a piece of unsubstantiated spin. It would be nice to be able to see that we were right.


From a post on www.lucianne.com:

>>In the poll from 9/9-9/10 there were 391 republicans, 300 democrats and 278 independents. In the just released poll there are 345 republicans, 364 democrats and 278 independents (according to a poster a realclearpolitics, I couldn't find the data on msnbc). So either newsweek was intentionally inflating republicans in the previous poll so that they could have the comeback story or they are intentionally overstating the democrats for the same reason. Pass this on<<
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Doc Jerry
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 11:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My pleasure:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/index.html

or just keyword: Real Clear Politics.

Also, check out what the sports bettors and traders are saying. They still have Bush up by a healthy margin. Remember, these guys are betting their hard earned money. I heard Hugh Hewitt referencing these guys a few times. You can see that at:

http:/tradesports.com/

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twicearound
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 12:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BE ENCOURAGE. LET OUR HEARTS NOT BE TROUBLED
DRUDGE

LA TIMES POLL SUNDAY: Bush's favorability rating among debate viewers actually improved slightly (although within the survey's margin of error). Before debate, 51% of watchers viewed Bush favorably, 49% unfavorably; after, numbers were 52% and 47%...
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nathan roland
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 1:13 am    Post subject: Polls Reply with quote

To me, one thing is certain about polls and the MSM...they can sway the outcome of an election. If we hear repeatedly in the MSM that "The Polls" show our candidate so far behind they cannot win...we may not vote. If we are told by the MSM that "The Polls" show the race is over while voting places are still open...we may not vote. If the MSM repeats hourly and daily until the election their nit-picking negative portrayals of our candidate...we may change our vote. How easily the many can be discouraged by the few. Don't wilt...others see Kerry for what he is too. Don't go wobbly...convince your friends to vote for Bush.

I keep hearing and reading reports that Kerry was RESOLUTE in the debate and very clear about his positions...shouldn't be a surprise to anyone! Hide and Watch Kerry has always been RESOLUTE and clear on each of his 11 different positions! Let's see what he says this week. Laughing Laughing
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shawa
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Joined: 03 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 1:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

When this poll first broke, I went into a panic. OOHHH NOOO!!

Then I said to myself, consider the source!
Newsweek is to newsmagazines what CBS is to TV news.
All Libs--big Kerry KoolAid drinkers!

Then I saw how they weighted the previous poll to show Bush UP big
and then weighted the post debate poll the other way--obviously
for the purpose of launching the BIG COMEBACK.

All Propaganda and Manipulation!

I will wait to see more respectable polls before I let myself
get rattled.
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oasis
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello,


President Bush and PM Blair liberated many people in Iraq.
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Nomorelies
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Newsweek is pulling a trick. Read what Ijust found on
http://www.powerlineblog.com
Quote:

UPDATE: Reader Meg Kreikemeier points out that according to RealClearPolitics, Newsweek's most recent poll included 345 Republicans, 364 Democrats and 278 independents. This compares to Newsweek's published data for their most recent prior poll, which showed President Bush with a comfortable lead: 391 Republicans,
300 Democrats and 270 independents. Yes, if you drop 46 Republicans and add 64 Democrats, you will get considerably better results for the Democratic nominee. This is a good reminder of why poll data always need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially until you see the underlying data.

My point about the Newsweek poll, however, was not that it was right, but that it and others like it will be the basis for a media effort to give the Kerry campaign momentum going down the stretch.


I suggest you read the entire article. Rasmussen still has Bush ahead.
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llano
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Bush lets Kerry spout off like the last debate without putting up any kind of rebuttals then the race will not be close. Mad
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bach04
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

llano wrote:
If Bush lets Kerry spout off like the last debate without putting up any kind of rebuttals then the race will not be close. Mad



I really hope that Bush et al will change strategies and come out swinging next time. I can understand that they want to portray Bush as an "ordinary kinda guy" to connect to voters but there are many "undecided" or "leaning" Americans who preferred "style" and they will foolishly vote for style over substance. The most frustrating thing was that Bush did not fully take advantage of Kerry's atrocious records and shred him to pieces that night. Bush can be the nice guy all he wants after the election, but he must be more aggressive next time. After all, the future of this nation is totally at stakes.
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PC
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:05 am    Post subject: Stock Market Reply with quote

According to Jim Stack the DOW30 performance for the two months prior to the election is a good indicator of who will win. If the DOW is up for Sept and Oct, the incumbent party won 15 of 16 elections since 1900. If the Dow is down the incumbent lost in 9 of 10 elections. The DOW was at 10174 on 8/31/04.

I still think the market being up so big the day after the debates is very positive for GWB.

Just remember how hard it is to make money in the stock market, it acts much differently than you think it should. Hence, the crowd is saying Kerry won the debate, the market knows otherwise.

How many of you would have bet that the market would have had a down day on Friday after seeing the debates? Most of you right?

Now is the time to get tougher. GWB will win this. It is not possible for Kerry to win. He is a loser.
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msindependent
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The first thing I looked for friday was the stock market report. They sure felt that W did okay. I seem to remember one of the bulls and bears guy saying something about all W had to do was avoid a hugh goof in the debates. Be sure and protest all this msm spin, it's up to us folks and we can do it.
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ProudDaughterofVet
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have an idea..lets just NOT look at these blasted things anymore. They are making my head spin. The absolute most important thing..VOTE, get your friends to VOTE and volunteer to get out the VOTE. I, for one, am done watching each and every poll..

Now...as someone who used to do this for a living..Bush did suffer a bit, but once the second debate show Edwards to be a inexperienced puppet of the left, who knows nothing..and Bush gets second crack at it, answering peeps questions which he is great at..I have a feeling it will be okay. close, but okay..getting out the vote is the KEY..and we will

Take care my friends..we will be okay, and maybe need a break from the polls, JMO..

PD
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ProudDaughterofVet
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have an idea..lets just NOT look at these blasted things anymore. They are making my head spin. The absolute most important thing..VOTE, get your friends to VOTE and volunteer to get out the VOTE. I, for one, am done watching each and every poll..

Now...as someone who used to do this for a living..Bush did suffer a bit, but once the second debate show Edwards to be a inexperienced puppet of the left, who knows nothing..and Bush gets second crack at it, answering peeps questions which he is great at..I have a feeling it will be okay. close, but okay..getting out the vote is the KEY..and we will

Take care my friends..we will be okay, and maybe need a break from the polls, JMO..

PD
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ProudDaughterofVet
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have an idea..lets just NOT look at these blasted things anymore. They are making my head spin. The absolute most important thing..VOTE, get your friends to VOTE and volunteer to get out the VOTE. I, for one, am done watching each and every poll..

Now...as someone who used to do this for a living..Bush did suffer a bit, but once the second debate show Edwards to be a inexperienced puppet of the left, who knows nothing..and Bush gets second crack at it, answering peeps questions which he is great at..I have a feeling it will be okay. close, but okay..getting out the vote is the KEY..and we will

Take care my friends..we will be okay, and maybe need a break from the polls, JMO..

PD
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