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BrianC
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Joined: 02 Jun 2004
Posts: 364
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 Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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Agreed, Sonar5.
I'd like to see what the pollsters were saying about President Reagan's (may he Rest in Peace) chances in September 1984 !  |
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Steve Z
Rear Admiral
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 687
Location: West Hartford CT
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| Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:07 pm Post subject: Polls |
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California as "weak Kerry" still shows him with a 9% lead, just below the 10% "strong Kerry" threshold.
The same website also shows a graph of their Electoral College projections as a function of time--Kerry's support started dropping about 10 days after the date marked "Swift Boat Ad".
However, the website also lists Tennessee as "barely Kerry" and Arizona as "barely Bush", whereas Rasmussen has both solidly for Bush. I suppose lots of these polls have to be taken with lots of salt!
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The traitor will crater! |
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MAXX
Ensign
Joined: 31 Aug 2004
Posts: 68
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| Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:11 pm Post subject: Ads in Southern California |
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| noc wrote: | http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html
A bold move would be to put an ad in the San Diego area since there are so many military and vets there. |
A close friend of mine lives in SanDiego -
he saw MANY of the SWIFTBOAT ads recently in intervals less than an hour, not just one..
you are really giving Kerry a hard time !
Just say NO to Comrade Kerry
MAXX (from Austria) |
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BrianC
PO2
Joined: 02 Jun 2004
Posts: 364
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| Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:19 pm Post subject: Re: Polls |
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| Steve Z wrote: | | However, the website also lists Tennessee as "barely Kerry" and Arizona as "barely Bush", whereas Rasmussen has both solidly for Bush. I suppose lots of these polls have to be taken with lots of salt! |
...........
Good point.
Note that some of the polls are from Zogby -(a pollster I trust about as far as I could throw him) and some from Rasmussen.
And your point about the polls being taken with lots of salt is well understood.
THE ONLY POLLS THAT MATTER ARE THOSE TAKEN ON ELECTION DAY! |
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Polaris
Rear Admiral
Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Posts: 626
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| Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:35 pm Post subject: |
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Everyone,
The current California Poll you see on www.electoral-vote.com is a Rasmussen poll done from 1 August to 26 August. Since much of the movement happened in the past week to two weeks, I think California is weaker than that poll suggests.
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-Polaris
Truth is Beauty |
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Indianbaboon
Lieutenant
Joined: 04 Jul 2004
Posts: 234
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| Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:40 pm Post subject: |
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keep in mind the Rasmussen difference is the same as teh Bush/Gore difference, does anyone know how accurate surveyusa.com has been?
they claim to be the best, but I don't have MS excel so I can't look at their track record.
IMO one of hte things that will help Bush is that the hispanic vote is rapidly becoming a VERY bipartisan thing with 40% voting repub, that can shift really easily closer to 50% as long as people don't confuse things like anti-illegal immigration with anti-hispanic politics. |
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noc
PO1
Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 492
Location: Dublin, CA
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| Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:46 pm Post subject: Re: Ads in Southern California |
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[quote="MAXX
A close friend of mine lives in SanDiego -
he saw MANY of the SWIFTBOAT ads recently in intervals less than an hour, not just one..
(from Austria)[/quote]
This is great news. I will be very interested in new polls here. |
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