SwiftVets.com

[Chuck54]

Given the other thread where he says Bush will win, I think Zogby his behaving exactly like is candidate Kerry.
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"And no pair has been more wrong, more loudly, more often, than the two Senators from Massachusetts, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry"

Zell Miller

[Steve Z]

Zogby has published a series of daily tracking polls for battleground states, whose results have been wildly erratic. For example, on October 25, he published Bush 43 Kerry 52 in Michigan, and on October 28, he said Bush 47 Kerry 45 in Michigan. A net gain of 11% for Bush in three days, and Kerry has the momentum???

I would LOVE to believe that Bush has gained 11% in Michigan, but we've got to carefully consider what Zogby polls really are. Zogby state polls are four-day moving averages of 600 voters per state, so Zogby interviews 150 people per state per day. Each day, a new 150 people enter his sample, and 150 people from four days ago drop out of the average.

If his moving average swings by, say, 4% in one day, it looks like huge momentum, but it really represents a swing of 24 people in four days, or an average of 6 people per day. Can anyone predict an entire state based on SIX people per day???

What if, on a given day, Zogby happens to call 24 Republicans, who don't answer the phone because they're at a Bush campaign rally, and Zogby ends up with 24 Democrats who are at home. Zogby says that Kerry has momentum, but those Republicans at the Bush rally each come back and sway a few of their friends to Bush. Where's the reality?
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The traitor will crater!

[Inatizzy]

and don't forget that it's the Democratic strategy to make it appear that Kerry has won, even if he hasn't. What better way to do that than a concerted and coordinated effort by the media and the pollsters to say that Kerry is winning, that he might as well declare victory.

Don't believe anything right now. Just VOTE.

Well, maybe we can believe Fox.

[Chuck Z Ombie AC2000]

Just ignore the retardation polls. Zogby is a lefty kerry puppet first of all.
Second nobody knows the outcome of those florida vote polls becuase they havent been tallied yet. what you are hearing about are regular polls of people who have already voted. So what you see is really maybe a few hundred people who already voted and they are basing it on that.
BTW yesterday i read on national review online bush up 15 points nationwide. just make sure yall vote. thats the only poll that means anything.
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John Kerry, R.I.P. (Rot In Paris)

[Proud of my VietVet Dad!]

Could it be this simple? People voting for GWB don't trust these early voting procedures. I thought about voting early for a split second, then decided I felt safer going on Nov. 2. All these polls saying Kerry is leading in the early voting also helps get Republicans out there on Tuesday.

[Inatizzy]

Yep, don't forget the dirty trick the MSM played last election by calling it for Gore too early and causing those people in the panhandle of Florida to go home because they thought the election was over.

Expect another trick like that this time. They've already forfeited their credibility so what have they got to lose? They would be willing to have egg on their face if it meant a Kerry victory.....with these people the ends justifies the means.

In regards to this election, I wouldn't believe ANYTHING they say. Even if they say Kerry wins I wouldn't believe it until I saw him being sworn in in January.

THe gloves are off with this election and the MSM has already shown whose side they're on. Expect the worst. Hope for the best.

[Lily]

Well here's what a "highly placed" GOP source is telling NRO about FL and the campaign in general. I think the GOP would have a better idea of what's going on on the ground then a polling company.

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THE WORD FROM A HIGHLY-PLACED SOURCE [10/29 01:24 PM]

I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” A lot of folks want to know who this source is and are suspicious of campaign leaks. Let’s say this information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.

Why is info given to me (and Kathryn)? I suspect that in some GOP circles, Kerry Spot and NRO are seen as a good way to reach the Bush base voters who are plugged into the Internet, keeping up with the news, etc. I think the info gets thrown my way to make sure the base isn't being panicked by the Kerry spin from some corners the mainstream media...

So here’s the news for today.

Among early and absentee votes cast already, Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.

There’s a great contrast in the respective get-out-the-vote operations for Bush and Kerry. Around 25 percent of registered voters report being contacted by a Bush-Cheney volunteer, most often members of their church or community organization or neighbor. About 19 percent of registered voters have been contacted on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards campaign, but the vast majority of these contacts are by paid temps of the campaign, the DNC, or a related 527. Will the personal touch have an effect?

In Hawaii, the Bush campaign has quietly had its eye on this state for a while, and been building a surprisingly strong statewide organization with more than 2,000 volunteers. Kerry put up ad about how bad the economy was, while Hawaii has one of the lowest unemployment rates in country.

In New Mexico, Bush is only few thousand behind in early/absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, a heavy Democrat county.

In Florida, the campaign expects Bush to end up with an estimated 100,000 vote advantage among early and absentee voters.

In Nevada, there is little expectation that this state will be all that competitive. Bush is competitive in Clark County (which includes Las Vegas). Right now Kerry leads 44 percent Bush 41 percent. Kerry needed over 50 percent out of Clark county to win NV. But Bush within a few thousands votes of heavy Dem county.

Finally, a big point of enthusiasm for the GOP is their deep bench of Bush surrogates who can garner big crowds and lots of media attention. The President is in New Hampshire and Ohio today, vith Ah-nuld. Cheney is going to Hawaii. Tommy Franks is in Florida, as is John McCain and former President Bush. Rudy Giuliani is in Iowa, Mitt Romney is in Michigan, and former President Bush will also be in Pennsylvania later

[Steve Z]

I had heard some stories on Fox about Republican women in Palm Beach County being intimidated by Kerry supporters while waiting in line for early voting. The lines stretch around the block, because there aren't many early-voting locations.

But on Election Day, there will be many more polling places, and probably enough Bush voters in line that anyone they tried to intimidate would find some defenders, and the police is probably planning to patrol polling places!
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The traitor will crater!

[msindependent]

Zogby was correct in '96 with the democrat win, HOWEVER they were wrong wrong wrong in 2000. This is all the beginning of the big plot to declare a traitor kerry win. Zogby is a democrat tool. Bush is going to win in Florida. Get your butts out and vote.

[davman]

What it will come down to is how many fraudulent votes the Dems can manufacture before Teusday. It all starts with the early voting, which was devised to give them the opportunity to get thier minions to vote multiple times and to get non qualified voters to vote. They have been planning a massive fraud for four years. If they manage to steal the election, we need to start the process of trying to impeach Kerry immediately. We should also get out en-mass for the inaugeration parade and protest!

[joeshero]

[DaveL]

[rparrott21]

I have a cell phone and I'm a Bush man...