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Newsweek poll: Bush lead gone
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neverforget
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 8:59 pm    Post subject: Newsweek poll: Bush lead gone Reply with quote

On www.drudgereport.com

No story yet, just the alarm.
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bach04
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's the start of the liberal's "comeback kid" campaign. I am not surprised that this is happening now. Too bad Bush did not took advantage of the debate to blow this once and for all, but I guess everybody was getting complacent before that.
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bach04
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does anybody know what was the last Newsweek poll before this? I remember 5-6 points lead for Bush.


New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.

The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.

A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush). The two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.

Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.

Among registered voters, 60 percent say they know "a lot" about what Bush stands for, compared to 38 percent who say so about Kerry, the poll shows.

During the debate, President Bush said the military would remain "an all-volunteer army," but if Bush is re-elected, 38 percent of registered voters say the draft is likely to be reinstated; 51 percent say it's not, according to the poll. If Kerry is elected president, 18 percent say the draft is likely to be reinstated; 67 percent say it is not. And 62 percent of registered voters say reinstating the draft should not be considered at this time; 28 percent say it should be considered.

A 60-percent majority of registered voters say Bush administration policies and diplomatic efforts have led to more anti-Americanism around the world and 51 percent say the administration has not done enough to involve major allies and international organizations in trying to achieve its foreign policy goals, the poll shows.

As for who will handle issues better overall, among registered voters Bush leads Kerry 52 to 40 percent on terrorism and homeland security; the situation in Iraq (49% vs. 44%); the situation involving Israel and the Palestinians (46% vs. 39%) and controlling the spread of nuclear weapons (47% v. 43%). Kerry scores better on the economy (52% vs. 39%); health care, including Medicare (56% to 34%) and American jobs and foreign competition (54% vs. 36%), the poll shows.

Overall, 62 percent say Bush has strong leadership qualities (compared to 56% who say so for Kerry). Sixty-six percent say Bush says what he believes, not just what people want to hear, compared to 48 percent for Kerry. Sixty-five percent say Bush is personally likeable (63% say so for Kerry). But more registered voters (57%) say Kerry is honest and ethical (vs. 55% for Bush); the same amount (51%) says they would trust Kerry to make the right decisions during an international crisis as would trust Bush (51%); and more (57%) say Kerry cares about people like them (vs. 49% for Bush). And 80 percent of registered voters say Kerry is intelligent and well informed, compared to 59 percent for Bush.

On Iraq, 50 percent of registered voters polled say the war in Iraq was not necessary; 46 percent say it was. And 55 percent of registered voters say going to war in Iraq has not made Americans safer from terrorism; 41 percent say it has. Fifty-one percent of registered voters say the Bush administration misinterpreted or misanalyzed the intelligence reports it said indicated Iraq had banned weapons; 41 percent say it didn't. And 45 percent say the administration purposely misled the public about evidence that Iraq had banned weapons in order to build support for the war; 50 percent say it did not.

During is 19-year career in the U.S. Senate, Kerry has changed his position on a number of issues. From what they know about Kerry, 47 percent of registered voters say this is because Kerry is thoughtful and changes position as circumstances change or he learns more about an issue; the same number (47%) say it's because Kerry is politically-motivated and changes his position when he thinks it will improve his image or help him win an election.

For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,013 registered voters on Sept. 30-Oct. 2, 2004.
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oasis
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello,

This is what is important, everything else is just smoke and mirrors.

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 238 Bush 296
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neverforget
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only hope I can take away from this is that these are registered and not likely voters.
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neverforget
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oasis wrote:
hello,

This is what is important, everything else is just smoke and mirrors.

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 238 Bush 296


I hope you're right.
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bach04
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps this poll reflects the "comeback" conspiracy given that the last poll seemed to oversample republicans. While one should be apprehensive of sources liike Newsweek, I hope that this is a wake up call for everybody, especially the president - who I hope and pray will change his style with the next debate....

the last poll was:
, the Bush/Cheneyts 49 percent of the vote among registered voters; the Kerry/Edwards ticket gets 43 percent of the vote; Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo get 2 percent, the poll shows
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truthseeker
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't forget, the only poll that counts is the one held on December 2.

You know, the poll of the court justices, after the litigation.
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Navy_Navy_Navy
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rush Limbaugh predicted this over a week ago - that no matter what the outcome of the debate, the leftstream would start making "comeback" noises and start talking about Kerry closing the gap.

They NEED a horserace, or they have fewer stories.

That's okay - we were getting too complacent, anyway. We need that leftstream media to keep feeding us this stuff to get us back on our toes and keep us fighting for EVERY vote, right up to election day.

This must not just be a defeat of John Fraud Kerry; in the name of our brothers and sisters who he has betrayed and slandered and abandoned, the defeat must be humiliating. It must be punishing.

And it must completely repudiate the media and expose it for the Kerry-machine that it is.

The only way to do that is to get out the anti-Kerry vote and keep them energized. Focus. Laser focus.

The President has taken almost four years of the steady drumbeat of negativity, baseless accusations and outright slander and libel in the name of "freedom of the press" and somehow, this is STILL a horserace.

How does he even remain a contender in the face of all the free pro-Kerry/anti-Bush propaganda that's masqueraded itself as news for the last four years???

There are going to be more of these polls and more of this type of "comeback kid" cheerleading from the press.

Get ready for it, expect it - and then go on about your business of getting out the vote against Traitor John. Wink

"If It's Not Close, They Can't Cheat" - Hugh Hewitt
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azpatriot
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

truthseeker wrote:
Don't forget, the only poll that counts is the one held on December 2.

You know, the poll of the court justices, after the litigation.


How true!

I've just checked just about every poll I could find and they are still all showing Bush way ahead. This is all just shoke and mirrors, treat it the same as a cheap magic trick.
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ProudArmyWife
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seems a lot like the call that Gore won Florida....while the polls were still open in the west. I watched some news show (probably FOX), who had the Gallup people explaining that the first true picture of the debate results wouldn't happen until MONDAY....after they polled on Friday, Saturday and Sunday..... Newsweek comes out with a poll stating that Bush's lead is gone today....so how does that impact the "picture" when Gallup (or others) call and ask their questions.... I've been checking the polls posted on Realclearpolitics.com and they are showing that Kerry has gained a little 2 points...but Bush still with lead. This poll is out in time to make the Sunday morning "news" shows... Looks like it's going to be a rough October.

(What's truly annoying is that if you just read the debate...Bush clearly dominates and Kerry's comments seems very well..."Kerryish". My prayer is that more and more people do read now....via the Internet....)
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Chukkal
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You might call it more mind games by the left....
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margie
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What is scary is sooo many people( maybe a majority of the populas) that really don't follow all of this closely, but get their news with sound bites and the "evening NETWORK news". They vote. If everyone would check things out closely I believe Bush would win in a landslide. Who in the world would vote for Kerry? Maybe Hollywood and ONE WORLD ORDER people.
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Doc Jerry
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 10:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The internals on this recent Newsweek poll show it was weighted more heavily toward Dems and women. It's still within the margin of error. In fact, up until a few weeks ago, that's where most have been. We're seeing some "settling" occurring now. It will be interesting to see what the other polls show in the next few days. In addition, this poll was probably taken closer to the close of the debate if it was just published today. We can probably expect the polls to stay close from now until the election just as they have been most of the year. No surprise here.

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msindependent
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Newsweek is always wrong anyway. I expect a couple of points gained on most of the polls.
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