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Rasmussen Sunday

 
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neverforget
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Joined: 18 Jul 2004
Posts: 875

PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 4:18 pm    Post subject: Rasmussen Sunday Reply with quote

Rasmussen Poll looks good today, with 2/3 of post-debate interviews included in the sample:

Bush 49

Kerry 45

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
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JimRobson
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 6:20 pm    Post subject: Rasmussen Chart Reply with quote

We are back on the original trend now and the 9 day moving average looks like it is about to take off again. Let's not take anything for granted but the good news is that there has been no negative impact from the debate.


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Tacan70UDN
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Joined: 05 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 6:51 pm    Post subject: Re: Rasmussen Chart Reply with quote

JimRobson wrote:
We are back on the original trend now and the 9 day moving average looks like it is about to take off again. Let's not take anything for granted but the good news is that there has been no negative impact from the debate.


Thanks for posting the graphs. I'm am more visual, and these help a whole lot!Very Happy
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buffman
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Joined: 21 Aug 2004
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It would take a few days to digest the debates. Kerry had huge gaffes that a tired President did not catch. Bush was up past his usual bedtime and had spent the day touring hurricane damage. He really could have ended this election had he caught the gaffes, like pro-coaliton in Iraq and anti-coalition with N. Korea, the nuclear fuel to Iran, etc. and finished his last 2 minutes lambasting Kerry on them. But, intelligent voters will listen to dissemination and breakdown through people like Rush and summate that Kerry just sounded and looked good but offered no substance. The national polls mean diddly squat, the polls in the battleground states mean everything in this race.
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subsailor
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Joined: 01 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 7:00 pm    Post subject: Rassmussen Chart Reply with quote

Thanks, JimRobson, The Charts communicate better than anything else I've seen. Please keep it up. Nice work in Excel.
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Kimmymac
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Joined: 01 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have a question about the polls and the elctoral vote projections. I wish I was a statistician so I could check this out myself. We have a couple of posters that seem knowledgable, maybe they can help me understand.

Looking at the overall popular vote, Bush is averaging about 3.5 points ahead of Kerry. (I am discounting the Newsweek poll, because that polls internals are crap) Bot looking at the elctoral votes, and looking at the percentages of the "barely Bush" vs "barely Kerry", "Strong Bush" vs. "Strong Kerry", I am seeing much stronger, deeper support for Bush. His "barelys" are much higher overall than Kerry's barely's, for one thing.

I don't know if I am explaining this clearly, but what I am trying to say is that what I see when I look at the state by state poll numbers, I see more like a double digit lead for Bush (more like the Gallup poll popular vote number of 8 percentage points) than this 2 percent or 3 percent stuff.

It is why I am predicitng an overall landslide for Bush, with a double digit popular vote lead. Voter fraud and OIM co-operation and bias not withstanding.

Any one else have any thoughts on these numbers? I am looking at real clear politics, as well as state by state polls from various sites.
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neverforget
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Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 10:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kimmymac wrote:
I have a question about the polls and the elctoral vote projections. I wish I was a statistician so I could check this out myself. We have a couple of posters that seem knowledgable, maybe they can help me understand.

Looking at the overall popular vote, Bush is averaging about 3.5 points ahead of Kerry. (I am discounting the Newsweek poll, because that polls internals are crap) Bot looking at the elctoral votes, and looking at the percentages of the "barely Bush" vs "barely Kerry", "Strong Bush" vs. "Strong Kerry", I am seeing much stronger, deeper support for Bush. His "barelys" are much higher overall than Kerry's barely's, for one thing.

I don't know if I am explaining this clearly, but what I am trying to say is that what I see when I look at the state by state poll numbers, I see more like a double digit lead for Bush (more like the Gallup poll popular vote number of 8 percentage points) than this 2 percent or 3 percent stuff.

It is why I am predicitng an overall landslide for Bush, with a double digit popular vote lead. Voter fraud and OIM co-operation and bias not withstanding.

Any one else have any thoughts on these numbers? I am looking at real clear politics, as well as state by state polls from various sites.


I'm for you, Kimmymac. And also thanks for the charts, Jim. I'm always checking moving averages for financial stuff, and forget how important they are for discerning trends in other things, too.
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