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SangRun Hunter
PO1
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 462
Location: Zinzinnati
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 Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2004 6:09 pm Post subject: What cancels out Ohio? |
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Pennsylvania, Michigan, or New Jersey? Maybe Florida?
I live here in Ohio, but I live in Cincinnati and this area should fall Republican except the city center where libs and welfare types live.
It's starting to get to me with al the stories of voter fraud and the B/C headquarters were broken into and vadalized this week in Hamilton county (Downtown Cincinnati).
What has to happen that Ohio become non-essential for electoral votes?
Anyone?
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Mad as Hell! |
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Anker-Klanker
Admiral
Joined: 04 Sep 2004
Posts: 1033
Location: Richardson, TX
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| Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2004 6:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | If either candidate wins both Ohio and Florida, he wins the election.
If Kerry wins Ohio but Bush wins Florida, Bush wins the election.
If Bush wins Ohio but Kerry wins Florida, the election turns on who wins Minnesota.
There is another interesting possible combination. My calculations assume that the Democrats will carry New Mexico by hook or by crook. But: if Kerry wins Florida and Minnesota, and Bush wins Ohio and New Mexico, the electoral count is a tie. |
http://www.powerlineblog.com/ |
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fr11
Seaman
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 154
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| Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2004 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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| If Bush wins Florida, but loses Ohio, he can still take the election by winning 2 of the following 3 states: MN, WI, IA (that's assuming Kerry takes NH, OR, and NM). |
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ccr
Commander
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 325
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| Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:33 pm Post subject: |
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The conventional wisdom has been, whoever wins 2 out of three of the following: FL, PA & OH is the winner.
This is approach has been spread by those in the MSM who look at everything from the perspective of "what does John Kerry have to do to win."
Let's say that Bush locks down FL and Kerry locks down PA. Does it all come down to OH? For Kerry, yes. Bush, no.
Right now, the following 2000 BLUE states are very much in play for Bush(there are some more blue states that are winnable, but let's not get greedy here):
-IA (7 EV)
-MN (10 EV)
-WI (10 EV)
-NM (5 EV)
-PA (21 EV)
-1 ME CD (1 EV)
Total 54 EV
The only 2000 RED states in play for Kerry are:
-FL (27 EV)
-OH (20 EV)
-NH (4 EV)
Total 51 EV
However, based on how the rest of the states stack up, the EV count is 227 to 207.
Kerry has a much more narrow strategy for victory.
Here is the big picture. Keeping the 227 he has, if Bush carries FL (or OH) + IA, he gets to 261. At that point, any of the following put him over 270:
OH (or FL)
NH + NM
WI
PA
MN
On the other hand, if Bush carries FL + IA, Kerry must win everything else in play: He needs NH to get to 270.
Kerry's best strategy, may be to win PA, OH & FL.
In terms of EV, Kerry has a very, big hill to climb.
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http://www.learnthat.com/quiz/
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