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Weekly Standard staffers give predictions

 
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Schadow
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Joined: 30 Sep 2004
Posts: 936
Location: Huntsville, Alabama

PostPosted: Fri Oct 29, 2004 1:09 am    Post subject: Weekly Standard staffers give predictions Reply with quote

Interesting and encouraging (mostly).

http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/831ikvkm.asp

Schadow
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RogerRabbit
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Joined: 05 Sep 2004
Posts: 748
Location: Oregon

PostPosted: Fri Oct 29, 2004 1:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

At least the GOP will have a great majority in the Senate

Quote:
Terry Eastland

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: 296 Bush -242 Kerry

Senate: 543 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry takes Florida and Pennsylvania, but the Midwest goes for Bush as values voters decide the election--at least on the initial count. Kerry goes to court in states where the margin of victory in each is less than 537 votes: Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Chaos ensues as lawyers take over, but only Minnesota shifts to Kerry, making the final tally 286-252.


and you just have to love this one

Quote:
atherine Mangu-Ward

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry
Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush

Senate: 51 (D), 49 (R)

House: Republicans retain control (who knows by how much) but I predict an upset in Vermont, knocking Bernie Sanders out of his seat and finally eliminating the irritating "1" in the "Other" category in all these tallies

Dark horse: Hillary Clinton for VP. Obviously, this is a very dark horse. But here's how it's possible: When the House decides the outcome for president (as it will in the event of an Electoral College tie), the Senate chooses the vice president. But it's not the current Senate that decides, it's the newly elected Senate. I predict that Democrats take control of the Senate, ditch Edwards, and install Hillary, thus giving her a fantastic (if unorthodox) launch pad for her 2008 presidential campaign.

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Schadow
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Joined: 30 Sep 2004
Posts: 936
Location: Huntsville, Alabama

PostPosted: Fri Oct 29, 2004 1:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Senate: 543 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)"

Yep. Weekly Standard needs a proofreader.

The thing that haunts me is the maverick elector. Already, one elector, apparently from a red state, has announced SHE will not vote as instructed. State not identified that I remember.

I clearly remember just about exactly four years ago, the fat-faced ferret, Bob Bechel, announced publicly on TV that he was planning to strike out across the country to dig up dirt on electors and blackmail them to change their vote. Why he didn't wind up in jail just for his announcement is beyond me.

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rparrott21
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Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Posts: 760
Location: Mckinney, Texas

PostPosted: Fri Oct 29, 2004 1:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

erry Spot [ jim geraghty reporting ]
[ kerry spot home | archives | email ]
FROM A SOURCE CLOSE TO THE CAMPAIGN

Just heard from a source close to the campaign, tuned in to the conversations at the highest levels.

According to the Bushies, the last few days have seen a huge burst of momentum in their numbers.

They think Bush is ahead by a few points nationally. They expect the next round of tracking polls to show a bit of a bump.

The internal polls show a significant lead in Florida (outside margin of error) and Arkansas is out of play, with a Bill Clinton visit or without. As for most of the other big ones - Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, internal polls show all too close to call.

Michigan is seriously looking like a pickup - Bush and Cheney could be there four times in the last four days.

An exit poll of those who have already voted show Bush ahead by 15 points! [UPDATE: This is ahead 15 points overall, nationwide, not just in Michigan. Obviously, those who have already voted are only a small, small segment of the electorate at large, so one should not read too much into this number. But it is interesting.]

Undecided voters appear to be breaking Bush’s way - some days he has a slight lead, other days it’s right around 50-50. (Note this would be considerably better than the 1/3 calculated that Bush needs here.

Finally, the ammo dump story appears to have left the Kerry campaign deep in al-Qaqaa.

Tommy Franks is going to enter this story and rip Kerry and the New York Times a new one. The Kerry folks are acting like they realized they have botched this story, and want to shift back to domestic topics. Lockhart, Bill Richardson on Imus — when asked about al-QaQaa, they dodge the question and quickly try to bring up other issues.

The campaign is going to avoid the Russian angle and go with the straightforward, “As the facts mount in this story, American people have a choice between believing Kerry-NYTimes-CBS or believing Bush and the Troops.”

This source close to the campaign didn’t say it, but I wonder if the Bush administration wants to deal with Russia in its own manner, and not have whatever diplomatic confrontations are going on behind the scenes complicated by a furious American electorate blaming Russia for hiding Iraq’s weapons and explosives.

[Posted 10/28 02:07 PM]
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neverforget
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Joined: 18 Jul 2004
Posts: 875

PostPosted: Fri Oct 29, 2004 3:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Drudge Report has it at about 20% of the electorate voting early. That's a huge number.

>>An exit poll of those who have already voted show Bush ahead by 15 points!<<

That is incredible, especially since the Democrats were claiming early voting woild benefit them.
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