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peter · Lieutenant Joined: 22 Aug 2004 Posts: 214

What is the groups take on the "wisdom" that the polls are NOT taking into account a monster turnout.

If these polling companies are "professional" why would they ALL be wrong into not taking this into consideration?

What will the actual turnout be? Is this the one thing nobody knows and hence we might be in for a ugly surprise?

MikeM · Ensign Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 71

Not sure which polls you mean, but I suggest that anything that is labeled as "national" be ignored. National polls are irrelevant, what counts are the polling that takes place at the state level. Conventional wisdom suggests that you average all the polls conducted on a comparable level (meaning say, all covering the same state).

With all that said, ALL polls other than the one taken on Nov 2 are irrelevant for anything other than getting sheeple to go with the winning crowd.

Nomorelies · Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2004 8:57 pm Post subject:

No.
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jataylor11 · Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2004 9:59 pm Post subject:

Polls are inaccurate -- they are based on a initial assumption that you call x% of Democrats, x% of Republicans, and x% of Independents --

if the % who self -identify as belonging to any one group has shifted since you determined your % (most are operating off a 2000 or 1996 % split) then your numbers are off ---

the there is the bias that that polltaker puts into the questions that force a bias answer ---

I think after 9/11 everything changed --- historically the nation has been moving Republican since 1992 --- look at the shift in Republican versus Democrat in Congressional and statewide elections....

the polls do not take this shift into account.

All said -- ignore the polls and go vote and take 2, 5, 10 friends and family

Another study shows that all the polls were off in 2002 --- all underestimated Republican votes --- by at least 2% and sometimes into the double digits

Woodrow · Posted: Fri Oct 29, 2004 1:20 am Post subject:

JMHO. The polls are light. With all the violence and union pressure, I believe voters are saving it for the voting booth.

Chuck Z Ombie AC2000 · Posted: Fri Oct 29, 2004 1:36 am Post subject:

I go by where the candidates go. Bush will be in blue states this weekend and so will kerry. that translates into very bad news for Kerry. Clinton even appeared via TV in Hawaii today.
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openfish24 · Lt.Jg. Joined: 18 Aug 2004 Posts: 140

http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=4870

http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=4176

http://slate.com/Default.aspx?id=2108778&

a couple of good articles on the polls

basically showing which ones to consider valid

and how they tend to undercount republicans

good stuff

semper fi

down with the traitor kerry

ccr · Commander Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 325

I'm going to take the contrarian view here....

The polls are a highly accurate tool for measuring exactly what they are designed to measure.

Polls are designed to take a snap shot of the public perceptions of a representative sample of the universe surveyed.

Here is what a survey is not:

+ Effective for handicapping the election horse race.
+ Capable of accurately measuring a universe if the sample is not representative.
+ Able to predict the future. As a general rule, the public is highly fickle and a substantial portion changes perspectives on any number of issues with a shocking degree of speed.
+ Providing any particularly valuable information by just looking at the "top line" numbers and overall "head to head".

The news media is obsessed with the horse race. That is why they pay big money for all of these polls that are simply worthless in terms of real news. Now, they have you obsessed with the horse race.
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