SwiftVets.com

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TEHRAN ON THE BRINK?
TTP Intelligence Bulletin
Dr. Jack Wheeler
Thursday, February 24, 2005

My friends at RegimeChangeIran have just received a copy of a secret report prepared by the Pasdaran Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s key security forces, for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It warns they would be unable to control a demonstration or rebellion in Tehran lasting longer than six hours.

Here’s the report’s key confession:

Society is in an unstable state. Were certain sensitive locations in Tehran to 'explode' under these circumstances, and the capital sink into chaos, if uprisings continue unabated and grow larger for more than six hours in Tehran, the situation would become uncontrollable.


You can be sure every student protestor in Iran knows about this report by now.

Iranian State Security Forces (SSF) have already had their hands full this month. On February 13, thousands of people poured into the streets of Mahabad in northwestern Iran to violently protest cut-offs of water, gas, and electricity as well as bread shortages. Demonstrators set fire to banners and posters celebrating the 26th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in front of government offices. SSF agents and Basij paramilitary thugs attacked the demonstrators with clubs and batons, who proceeded to fight back, injuring a number of agents and thugs.

On February 21, three towns in western Iran erupted simultaneously, Sardasht, Saqqez, and Baneh. When SSF agents attacked the demonstrators protesting fuel shortages, they were violently resisted. In Sardasht, over 200 people were arrested, hundreds more in Baneh, but in Saqqez, the townspeople beat up several SSF agents and forced them to run away.

There have been dozens of very small-scale protests in Tehran over the past few months, but as word of the Pasdaran report gets out and springtime starts to arrive, you can expect that six-hour limit to be tested, and on increasingly large scales. Events in Iran may be about to move as fast as Michael “Faster Please” Ledeen never ceases to ask for.

from To The Point - http://www.tothepointnews.com


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[PhantomSgt]

Rest assured the only thing "Secret" about this report is the Mullah's motives behind it being released. The information apparatus of Iran's leadership is under their total control. We are not talking about the Pentagon here that leaks constantly.

So what reason would the Mullahs have for floating this "Secret" report? It is quite simple really and a standard manipulation by despots. Embolden the resistance to show at a demonstration and then quietly round them up for mass execution. The quickest way to undermine a resistance.

Why would six hours be the deadline for the Iranian State Security Forces (SSF) to hold their own. Remember the SSF is the Mullah's personal Army and none of them would dare present a report such as this to the Mullahs. These folks do not take bad news well and would hang the messenger. Six hours would allow the group of protesters to grow from the outlying areas around Tehran and ensure the SSF and regular Iranian forces have the time to react in force or cut off routes of escape.

Surrounded, with no means of escape, the resistance would be crushed.


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Retired AF E-8

Independent that leans right of center.

[SBD]

Don't take lightly what Dr Jack Wheeler says, his bio speaks for itself.

Dr. Wheeler received his Ph.D. in Philosophy from the University of Southern California, where he lectured on Aristotelian ethics. Author of numerous articles in political philosophy and geopolitics, he began in the early 1980s a series of extensive visits to anti-Soviet guerrilla insurgencies in Nicaragua, Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Cambodia, Laos, and Afghanistan, and to democracy movements in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, becoming an unofficial liaison between them and the Reagan White House. Based on this, he developed the strategy for dismantling the Soviet Empire adopted by the White House known as the “Reagan Doctrine.” It worked. The Freedom Research Foundation, founded by Dr. Wheeler in 1984, continues to provide information to a number of Congressional offices on issues regarding political and economic freedom throughout the world and in the United States.

Dr. Wheeler has been called the “real Indiana Jones” by the Wall St. Journal, the “creator of the Reagan Doctrine” by the Washington Post, and an “ideological gangster” by the Soviet press. He has traveled to over 180 countries and all seven continents, leads 2 to 3 expeditions a year, and is a consultant to a number of international corporations on geopolitics strategy.

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[GenrXr]

[DLI78]

I hope Wheeler is right, but I have to agree with Phantom Sgt.

Mao Zedong did something along those lines with the Hundred Flowers Campaign in 1956. The party encouraged intellectuals to write posters criticizing the government "so they would know what needed fixing."

In time, people got a little bold and started laying it out. Then Mao grabbed 'em all and sent them for "thought reform". Hasta la vista, guys.

If the Mullahs are confident they can overcome the protesters they might just sucker them in with a bogus report and a few incidents in small towns where the security types get their butts kicked.

We might end up seeing a Tehran version of the Tiananmen Square massacre. If that happens I hope this President Bush doesn't repeat his father's gross mistake and reward the murderers with most favored nation status.
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DLI 78
Army Linguist
1978-1986

[PhantomSgt]

I would never question the credentials of Jack Wheeler, but I reserve the right to question his sources and methods that lead to the mysterious Intel appearing on the web. There are thousands of Iranian Freedom sites and rest assured some charter members of these groups are from the SSF.

All transmissions in or out of Iran are monitored by the SSF (you can thank the French for the Iranian monitoring and communications systems). God, how the French love that oil money.

Well to make a long story short whatever you read on one of the Iranian Freedom Fighter's Webs "you need to take with a grain of salt". Some posts are legitimate and some are floated out by the regime.

I stand on what I posted above.


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Retired AF E-8

Independent that leans right of center.