SwiftVets.com

[TroyS]

From what I understand this is an ABC internal media report on the last week politically. The comments are not mine they are from where I got the article. It's pretty revealing on how the press only tells us what they want to.

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM WATCH…..
ABC’s political note is great for getting a sense of Big Media’s take on the campaign.
Some of today’s observations (and my comments):

—There is no sign that the controversy has fundamentally affected the race (There is no dramatic change in the horserace number … ), but plenty of feeling that it can erode Kerry's credibility and tarnish his war record. (CJS: This is the key because it goes to the heart of Kerry’s strategy of being the minimally acceptable alternative to Bush. Once the doubts are planted it will be too late for him to re-introduce himself… and Bush has already taken the heaviest hits.)

—This blind quote in the New York Times from a Democrat "close" to the Kerry campaign is very key: "When you're basically running on your biography and there are ongoing attacks that are undermining the credibility of your biography, you have a really big problem." (CJS: A really big problem. This was THE major strategic decision of the Kerry campaign.)

—There are smart Democrats who think this is all horrible for Kerry; there are ones who think an eventual backlash against the president and a focus on Kerry's war record will be good in the end. And there are smart Republicans on both analytical sides as well. (CJS: Before the latest ad, I thought it cut cut both ways, but now I don’t see any real upside for Kerry.)

—There is no evidence that the Bush campaign is orchestrating the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, and the known ties between them are significantly less close than between John Kerry's campaign and the 527s supporting him. (CJS: This is a huge concession for the mainstream media to make, because it undercuts Kerry’s major counter-offensive, his attempt to link the ads to Bush.)

—The traditional media has shown no capacity to resist the story — for a week and counting this stuff has been the dominant narrative of the presidential race. (CJS:Not that they didn’t try.)

—In the days left before November, name all news organizations who will devote more space and time to the health care proposals of President Bush and Senator Kerry than to Senator Kerry's war record. (The answer: none.) (CJS: I agree. )

—If John Kerry can't build a campaign organization that can de-fang 250 guys spending a million bucks, how good a president could he possibly be? (CJS: This has a blood in the water feel to it…)

—The greatest political effect all this will probably have on the outcome of the election is to give the conservative base many reasons to get all riled up in hating John Kerry the way the left hates George Bush — and, as Matthew Dowd will tell you, firing up the base is the way this election will be won.

—Undermining ONE of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth charges — such as William Rood did — does not undermine them all. The reporting on Rood by many news organizations over the weekend — painting him as repudiating all the charges being made after "dramatically breaking his silence" — was embarrassing. (CJS: Another remarkable acknowledgement that the media’s bias here has become an embarrassment. If this reaction is more widespread, we might actually see something a bit more even-handed. But I’m not holding my breath.)

—Kerry's truthfulness is significantly more in question on the Cambodia "issue" than it is on any of his medals, which is why the anti-Kery group returns to Cambodia whenever its credibility is challenged.(CJS: Better and better. The media is starting to realize that Kerry hasn’t – maybe can’t – explain his Cambodia fabulism. Maybe they’ll start asking him questions he will actually have to answer. )

—The traditional media can never cover this story in enough volume to satisfy Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh. (CJS: OK, that’s true. For me too.)

—Bob Dole knew exactly what effect his statements would have on keeping the story alive.

—Kerry and his campaign have been inconsistent on the question of whether President Bush's National Guard record should be and will be an issue in this race. (CJS: Amazing! They noticed that too. Does all of this mean that more tough questions are on the way? The next week could be brutal for Kerry if this mood spreads though the press bus.)

— The unwillingness of the Bush campaign and the White House to directly answer questions focused on the CONTENT of the Swift Boat Veterans attack on Kerry's war record (rather than their view of 527s) should ashame and embarrass the whole nation -- despite reporters' best efforts. (CJS: All right, back to reality. What about the unwillingness of Kerry to talk about the CONTENT of Michael Moore’s movie? Or the MoveOn.org slime or…. You get the idea.)

—If President Bush is so upset about the failure of McCain-Feingold to stop all 527 advertising (as he claims he thought the law he signed would do), why doesn't he propose some new First Amendment restrictions that he would be willing to sign into a new law? (CJS: Actually, I'm hoping he's regretting that he signed McCain-Feingold in the first place... one of his absolutely worst decisions.)

—If the terrain switches to Kerry's protest-era statements, the story will be kept alive even longer, and Kerry's capacity to win the "truth" war will be more limited. (CJS: Kerry's worst nightmare…because the issues are starker and Kerry’s room to spin much smaller…It's hard to accuse the other side of "smearing" you, if all they are doing is quoting you. Worse yet, the anti-war, medal-throwing, cavorting-with-Jane -Fonda John Kerry blows to smithereens the war hero, commander-in-chief in-waiting persona he's been trying so hard to build up.)

—The new Bush ad going after John Kerry on taxes is almost certainly more likely to work, now that Kerry's "trouble with the truth" reputation has been stoked by the Swift Boaters. (CJS: If Kerry’s credibility has really been damaged, it is ALL going to work…since Kerry is now caught with a content-free campaign that was supposed to be kept afloat by his biography.)

—The effectiveness of the counter attack by veterans who support Kerry has yet to be measured. The Kerry campaign has more waves of veterans coming out today to support Kerry and is making sure local stations in key states have access to their new real and Internet ads.

—For what is the "mainstream" press a bigger sucker — accusations that the president and Karl Rove are engaged in a secret smear, or anything involving John McCain? (It's a close call, but marry them up, the Kerry campaign knows, and you have something potentially potent!!)

—Kerry having to spend general election money on ads in August to combat the SBVfT is not that big a deal — given the amounts involved — but it ain't nothing, either.

—We'll wait to see if, as expected, the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth go up with their new ad in three new states tomorrow, and Kerry matches them with HIS new ad. (CJS: Sorry, but his new ad is no match for the new Swiftee ad. It is just devastating.)

—Look for Kerry to give a big speech in New York tomorrow; for Thursday's poverty and health insurance numbers; the Republicans continue to try to finesse their platform contretempts under the media radar; more Iraq developments; and for cable TV and talk radio to ignore everything but Swift Boats. (CJS: They are on to us

[stealthy]

A NYTs survey found that news people in washington were 12-1 for Kerry.
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American Conservative