SwiftVets.com

[richnlori2000]

I have lived in California all my lift. I can't remember seing presidential political advertising here. Could it somehow be possible that Kerry is doing sooo bad that California could go Republican this year? Campaigns do internal polling and would only advertise here if the numbers are changing.

[lolajl]

[jataylor11]

1) California has a lot of military and veterans
2) Maybe the rest of the population has gotten tired of the nuts and berrys and Hollywood crowd painting California lunatic lefties.

[Steve Z]

According to the latest Rasmussen poll in California (8/28/04), Kerry leads CA by 51-42%. Closer than what would be expected, BEFORE Gov. Schwarzenegger's speech to the RNC, which could sway some CA voters toward Bush.

It would be interesting to see poll numbers in CA after the RNC, and see if things are getting closer. If Kerry loses CA, he is toast, and he knows it!

It's expensive to advertise in CA, and maybe the Bush campaign believes the money would be better spent elsewhere. But if things start getting closer, some SBVT ads in CA might be worthwhile--especially aimed at veterans and VIETNAMESE immigrants. If the Kerry campaign gets worried about losing CA, they might be forced to advertise there, and divert money from other states Kerry needs, whereas Bush has shown that he can win the Presidency without California.

Maybe those who control the purse strings at SBVT might want to study this...
_________________
The traitor will crater!

[noc]

http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Another survey here shows Kerry only up by 3 percent.

That spells trouble.

A bold move would be to put an ad in the San Diego area since there are so many military and vets there.

[Frogg]

I read something the other day.....that in matters concerning California business Arnold has been doing something for unusual. He has been hitting it hard and talking in areas that are traditionally Dem strongholds. Supposedly he is trying to rake in the Reagan Dems behind him. I wonder if he is building up that base for when he campaigns on Bush's half while Bush is in California.

[frankzzz]

I honestly believe California could be in play if this issue is allowed to play out among its large veteran and (oft ignored) large Vietnamese refugee population.

Perhaps an ad that features Kerry saying his convention line about “never cutting and running and leaving the people of a country to whatever might follow” juxtaposed with the footage of the Vietnamese people clamoring to get on one of those last few choppers out of Saigon. Then, a voice that says something like, “John Kerry was the poster boy for cutting and running away from the Vietnam War so God help the poor people of Iraq if he should ever be elected president”.

Also, there is an extremely large Hispanic voting bloc in California (many of whom are veterans) and they hold things like truthfulness, integrity and credibility in the highest regard. This bloc of voters is also very religious and family-oriented and I simply don’t think they would ever vote for Kerry once they knew the truth about him. I also believe that Kerry’s obstructionist filibuster of qualified Hispanic judges could be used against him with this bloc of voters.

Also, I seem to recall that there were over one million absentee ballots that were never counted in Californian because Gore’s lead was greater than one million votes. In a closer race, those ballots (which most believe were a majority for Bush) would need to be included.

Actually, even if it only forced Kerry to spend money in California, running an ad there could help defeat him.

[dukeblue]

Source http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/ca_polls.html

Rasmussen's Poll has Kerry up by 9 (51-42).
Both SUSA and Rasmussen show a 9 point shift towards Bush.

This is before Ah-nold spoke last night!

SUSA also shows Boxer below 50. If her race gets weak, the state is definitely in play!

[noc]

[RocketFett]

I'd thought now and then about California and wondered about this. This is great news. EASILY kerry should be beating Bush in California by a 3-1 margin IMO. The fact that he's only up by 9 in that one poll, and only 2 in another, he is in BIG BIG HONKING CAMPAIGN KILLING TROUBLE THERE! It should NEVER be that close for a democrat in California. One other thing that might be hurting him, is the trend that showed up during the recall last year. half the people that voted for Schwarzennegger were democrats. Large numbers of them voted for him because he promised to lower the taxes to reasonable levels, davis raised them. He won by something like 33% (it was some significant number like that). At the same time, there was a proposition the democrats in the state legislature put forward that would change state law so that it would only take a simple majority (51%) to raise taxes, not a super majority (60%) the way it is now. With 55 democrats in the California Senate, that would give them immediate power to raise taxes! That proposition lost by a HUGE margin, within a couple points of the margin by which Schwarzennegger won by! That's significant because it shows that large numbers of democrats voted both FOR Schwarzennegger and AGAINT that proposition which basically was a tax increase ploy by the state democrats. That's significant because it's clear that when kerry gets in, he WILL roll back most if not all of the Bush tax cuts. In the past kerry said ALL, but then after getting flack from democrats he backed down and said just some of them would be rolled back. The ones on the evil wealthy of course. But to liberals, "wealthy" is anyone who makes more than $80K per year before taxes! Looking at those stats, is Bush hammers in California that kerry will roll back all the tax cuts and raise California's tax burden, that could well push kerry over the edge there. This is definitely worth watching. If Bush gets any kind of surge from the AWESOME AMAZING speech Schwarzennegger gave, kerry is ready for the fork.

[frankzzz]

Much of the analysis of Zell Miller’s speech that I saw indicated that his speech was directed squarely at the so-called “Reagan Democrats” (as opposed to the “Undecided Voters”). And, many of the people doing this analysis were careful to note that these Reagan Democrats (especially in a place like California) will never admit that they do not want a democrat (like John Kerry) in the White House. However, when it comes time to actually cast their vote, they will not vote for him.

If this is true and there are enough "Reagan Democrats" out there, the polls we are looking at on this thread could be showing support for Kerry that simply does not exist.

I agree with keeping our eyes on the prize and concentrating on states like Florida and Ohio but, considering the bang-for-the-buck each SBVT ad gets, I would hope that they at least have some feelers out in California (especially Southern California) because it is such a huge prize.

[low26]

I think the Swiftees should run an ad in Cali. There is only a 3 point lead by Kerry

[one more captins mast]

Then it will be which state wants to go down in the History books

as the ONLY STATE TO VOTE FOR KERRY.


"gun running in Cambodia'

"magic hats", still in his possission after 30 years?? come on

"flying dogs" ,, sounds to much like a B movie

" CIA" Seal Team", delivery boy, "I'm super man" man of "steal"

"your all baby killers", I'm the hero,? I don't want these awards
I'll just spend a lot time "redoing them"




baby killers, baby killers, baby killers ,

ps so if we were that "kangas kong" or what ever, its our mothers fault for raising such sorry asses, he is a nut case.
_________________
the strange mr aj

[BrianC]

[Sonar5]

The Kerry weak is Aug 26th, for Caleeefornia.

Polls this weekend will be interesting, so we'll see.

I am not a big fan of polls, because I think this election more than any in the recent past, people will be concerned for their safety, and will pull Bush no matter what they tell the pollsters, IMHO...

Regard,
Joe
_________________
Veteran-United States Marine Corps 1983-1989

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