SwiftVets.com

WallaceNails · Seaman Apprentice Joined: 07 Aug 2004 Posts: 89

Kerry takes the lead for the first time since August.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
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FOUR MORE YEARS!!!!!!!!!

GeorgiaBoy · Seaman Apprentice Joined: 13 Sep 2004 Posts: 97

I saw that on realclearpolitics.com (see below)

It's strange that the Rasmussen poll is the only poll showing gains by Kerry. Would it be incorrect of me to wonder why?

Rasmussen: Kerry 48, Bush 46
Reuters/Zogby: Bush 48, Kerry 45, Nader 1
TIPP: Bush 50, Kerry 42, Nader 2 | Bush 50, Kerry 42

PrinceLazar

WallaceNails · Seaman Apprentice Joined: 07 Aug 2004 Posts: 89

Im sure the MSM will be all over this today.
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FOUR MORE YEARS!!!!!!!!!

blue9t3 · Admiral Joined: 23 Aug 2004 Posts: 1246 Location: oregon

Did they take into account that the Pope is voting for Bush? Wink

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MOPAR-BUYER

noc · PO1 Joined: 24 Aug 2004 Posts: 492 Location: Dublin, CA

All the polls are going to be close right up to the day of the election.

Stay focused. Make your calls, write your letters, influence who you can. Help get the vote out.

It is time to roll up the sleeves and finish what we have started. Don't let all the hard work go to waste.

Steve Z · Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:52 pm Post subject: Rasmussen poll

The Rasmussen poll looks scary at first glance, but it has been running in cycles, where Bush does well in midweek, and poorly on weekends. It's a three-day moving average, meaning that Monday's results were from polls taken on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Last Monday (Oct 17) numbers were low for Bush and high for Kerry, then Bush surged again. Earlier in the campaign, Rasmussen didn't poll on Mother's Day, and on Father's Day Kerry surged, but three days later Bush retook the lead. All the polls show that Bush has a big lead among married people, while Kerry leads among single people. Possibly, on the weekends, married people are busy running errands or going out with their families, while singles sit by the phone waiting for a date, and are ready to say Kerry when Rasmussen calls.

Rasmussen doesn't give "internals" for his polls, except (maybe) to Premium members. It would be interesting to see how many Republicans and Democrats are surveyed on any given day. We'll probably have to wait at least until Thursday to see whether today's Rasmussen results are really a bad trend or a weekend fluke.

Strangely enough, the Zogby polls, which are usually friendly to Democrats, show Bush leading 48-45, his biggest lead in a week. Yesterday Zogby also released state polls:

FL Bush 49-46
OH Bush 47-42
PA Kerry 47-45
MI Kerry 52-42
MN Kerry 46-45
WI Bush 48-45
IA Bush 47-45
NM Bush 49-44

Bush is leading the two big states of FL and OH, also WI, IA, and NM, and within striking distance in MN and PA. Zogby also showed Kerry leading Colorado by 4 points, but that's an outlier--every other CO poll shows Bush up by at least 6 points.

TIPP also shows Bush up 50-42, his biggest lead ever.

In any of these polls, a swing of a few percent might be due to about a few dozen people, who happen to either be home or not be home when the pollster calls. A better appreciation is possible when looking at the average results of several polls. According to RealClearPolitics.com, the average spread is Bush 48.6, Kerry 45.4. Bush has maintained a 2 to 3-point lead since the third debate.

http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html
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The traitor will crater!

blue9t3 · Admiral Joined: 23 Aug 2004 Posts: 1246 Location: oregon

Noc, thats good advice but the polls will be tight even if Bush has a 10 point lead. Got to plug away like your behind even though I don't think there are undecided out there. I think "no voters" are good for Bush and kerry creates them when he talks or shows his face!

(unless I'm wrong! in that case I agree with my content)
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MOPAR-BUYER

Whacker77 · Ensign Joined: 06 Sep 2004 Posts: 55

At least for now, don't get too worried about Rasmussen's poll. I think his poll has been good this year, but I think we just have to wait. This is the only poll that shows Kerry ahead. Remember, Rasmussen uses robots to poll. A person doesn't do the polling, the process is automated. If the trend continues, then start to worry. Kerry has won three daily samples in a row. He has not done this in more than three months. It could be that the randomness of polling and the weekend caught up to this poll.

Bush Kerry
46.3 48.1
46.5 47.8
46.4 49.3

Kerry's best day was yesterday. It won't drop until Thursday, but this the only poll that shows Kerry above the 46 percent mark. Bush has had a lot of 50 percent days in the past few weeks. Hopefully, they will show back up.

Chuck Z Ombie AC2000 · Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:03 pm Post subject:

Just a reminder not to forget next tuesday is election day and get your big behind over to vote for Bush.
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John Kerry, R.I.P. (Rot In Paris)

Son of a VET · Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:09 pm Post subject:

I think we will see the polls go all over the board. I don't trust them.
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Stolen Honor

Inatizzy · Former Member Joined: 28 Sep 2004 Posts: 439

All my family has already voted and we made D@MN sure there were no hanging chads.

GWB landslide.........

Fort Campbell · Vice Admiral Joined: 31 Aug 2004 Posts: 896

Just keep repeating......................Truman and Dewey ..............Truman and Dewey.........................Truman and Dewey.

Truman and the Democrats were in trouble in 1948. As Election Day neared, the polls predicted a resounding defeat come November. Truman, the incumbent faced a variety of candidates: Thomas Dewey, a Republican, Henry Wallace, of the Progressive Party, and Strom Thurmond of the Dixiecrats -- a band of Southern Democrats who abandoned their party.

The night before the election ALL polls predicted a Dewey Landslide.

But Harrys S. Truman won.

ccwebb · Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:07 pm Post subject: Rasmussen in 2000

The final Rasmussen poll in 2000 had Bush winning 49-40.

While I wish that was the final actually Gore beat Bush 48.38% to 47.87% while Bush as we all know won the election because of more electoral college votes.

In other words Rasmussen was off by a mile.

I think the best we can do as far as polls go is average them out as
http://www.realclearpolitics.com does.

Then we can send in money here to swiftvets before Tuesday morning (Oct 26).

Then the most important thing is to get all Bush supporters to turn out and vote at the polls November 2nd.

Charlie

JK · PO3 Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 259

From now to election day there will be polls to show Kerry in the lead FOR THE MAIN PURPOSE OF MAKING BUSH VOTERS GIVE UP AND NOT VOTE...LET'S NOT FORGET DAN RATHER THROWING THE ELECTION TO GORE HOURS BEFORE POLLS CLOSED - FORTUNATELY MANY STILL VOTED BUT RATHER CAME CLOSE TO A VICTORY FOR GORE...

JK