SwiftVets.com

[noc]

This also represents a seven point additional loss since 9/5/04 in their poll.

http://pollingreport.com/

Very good trend.

[Steve Z]

http://realclearpolitics.com

Also, a new Gallup poll for Wisconsin shows Bush 52 Kerry 44. Gore won Wisconsin in 2000, and the first SBVT ad ran in Wisconsin. I wonder if there's a connection?

What about future strategy for SBVT ads? Does SBVT just let the "Medals" ad run for awhile before hitting Kerry on early Vietnam troop withdrawal and/or conspiring with the Viet Cong?

The polls I've seen show Bush pulling away in some "battleground" states (especially Arizona, Missouri, and Ohio), and leading slightly in some Gore states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), and even closing the gap in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Jersey, while Bush is still behind in New Hampshire and tied in Colorado and Nevada (states he won in 2000). Florida is huge, but people down there are too busy dodging hurricanes to respond to polls!

Some national polls (Rasmussen, Christian Science Monitor) show the national race as tied, others (Time, Gallup) have Bush with big leads.

If Bush wins the same states he won in 2000, he gets 277 Electoral votes to Kerry's 261. If Bush wins Florida, he could afford to lose New Hampshire, but not Nevada or Colorado. Even if Bush lost Florida and New Hampshire, he could still (barely) be re-elected by winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

So, what should the SBVT ad strategy be to ensure that Kerry does not win the White House? Which of the states above would be most receptive to SBVT ads, so that SBVT can get the most bang from limited bucks?
_________________
The traitor will crater!

[neverforget]

I don't know anything about this polling outfit. Are they polling likely or registered voters or is it a compilation of other polls?
_________________
US Army Security Agency
1965-1971

[Kimmymac]

Bush isn't going to lose Florida. Maybe these hurricanes, horrible as they are, will have the net result of keeping the twice Dem voting New Yorkers home this fall, and the real residents of Florida can have their say.

Granted, I am a ****-eyed optimist, but I have been predicting a Bush landslide all along.

Remember, we haven't even gotten to the debates yet, and I can't see Kerry being able to either attack or defend. And hey, maybe this time our military will be able to have their absentee votes counted. (Told ya I am an optimist!)

[Kimmymac]

Bush isn't going to lose Florida. Maybe these hurricanes, horrible as they are, will have the net result of keeping the twice Dem voting New Yorkers home this fall, and the real residents of Florida can have their say.

Granted, I am a ****-eyed optimist, but I have been predicting a Bush landslide all along.

Remember, we haven't even gotten to the debates yet, and I can't see Kerry being able to either attack or defend. And hey, maybe this time our military will be able to have their absentee votes counted. (Told ya I am an optimist!)

[Steve Z]

FYI, NeverForget:

RealClearPolitics.com is a website that features lots of editorials dealing with political subjects, and they compile an "average" of recent polls done by the well-known polling organizations (Gallup, Zogby, Rasmussen, Time, Newsweek, Quinnipiac, and others). I don't know whether they do their own polling, but they do gather lots of poll results from various sources into a single site for comparison.

As for their editorials, they link to many other sources on both sides of the political aisle, although it seems like their own opinions run center-right. I don't know whether they cherry-pick their polls to favor one candidate over another, although they have published polls which show Kerry leading by huge margins in states like New York and Massachusetts, and Bush leading by huge margins in states like Oklahoma and Utah.
_________________
The traitor will crater!

[shawa]

Steve Z

You noticed it too! Wisconsin was neck and neck until SBVT ads ran there.
Since then, Bush is really pulling ahead! Keep it up Swifties. I'll be donating another $100.00 today.