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armybrat
Seaman Apprentice
Joined: 05 Oct 2004
Posts: 77
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 Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:32 pm Post subject: |
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I view them this way, all of them show Bush trending up. The consistency of data showing W's lead is more improtant than an individual poll. This is just the first to show a jump outside the margin of error so it's just a good sign, not a victory.
Look at this result as more ammunition to throw at "undecided" or wavering Kerry supporters. The best defense is a good offense
FIGHT ON!!!
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No man's life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in session.....Mark Twain |
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Chuck54
PO1
Joined: 14 Aug 2004
Posts: 466
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| Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Anker-Klanker wrote: | I'd advise caution, caution, caution in accepting this information. Real polls don't change that fast. It may be a "glitch" or a set-up.
In the last CNN/Gallup poll (close-out date 10/10/04) it was Bush 48%, Kerry 49%. |
Poll psychology is interesting. I visit pro bush websites and when a poll has Kerry in the lead they cry slanted poll, the dems are trying to discourage us. When a poll comes out with Bush in the lead, its another slanted poll trying to make us complacent.
My head is spinning round and round with this, I need some dramamine.
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"And no pair has been more wrong, more loudly, more often, than the two Senators from Massachusetts, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry"
Zell Miller |
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fr11
Seaman
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 154
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| Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:47 pm Post subject: |
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I don't trust the CNN/Gallup poll for one second! They've been all over the place. A few weeks ago, Bush was up by 13, then down by 1 last week, and now up by 8. I don't buy it.
I don't trust Zogby either. He's an Arab-American who strongly supports Kerry and hand-picks the people he polls. Rasmussen has been pretty consistent, so I'd say they're probably the most trustworthy poll right now.
Latest Rasmussen results:
Overall - Bush 48% Kerry 46%
FL - Bush 49% Kerry 46%
OH - Bush 49% Kerry 47%
PA - Bush 46% Kerry 47%
WI - Bush 47% Kerry 48%
This race is far from over. We still have LOTS of work to do! |
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Navy_Navy_Navy
Admin
Joined: 07 May 2004
Posts: 5777
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| Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:54 pm Post subject: |
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I'm not going to trust any of these polls, and I don't care how scientific they are, or how non-partisan.
The other side could easily throw us off and convince us that we don't need to go vote against Kerry because Kerry has already lost. Or they can convince us that Kerry is so far ahead that we'll never catch up, so what's the use in putting in our one little vote?
We need to act every day as if Kerry is three or four points ahead in all the polls, no matter what they're actually saying.
Please keep your energy up and stay focused on fighting for every vote, right up through election day.
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Altering course to starboard - On Fire, Keep Clear
Navy woman, Navy wife, Navy mother |
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kmudd
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Posts: 825
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Jack Mclaughlin
PO3
Joined: 13 May 2004
Posts: 280
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| Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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| In this day and age when Americans cast their ballots there will be one question they will ask themselves that will trump all the other issues and that is, who will do a better job in protecting my children and grandchildren from terrorism? The answer to that question is now being answered and it is being reflected in the polls. |
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directorblue
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 21 Aug 2004
Posts: 121
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| Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:38 pm Post subject: a |
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The RealClearPolitics average is probably one to closely examine. Anytime you can increase the sample size, you should be able to increase the accuracy.
The RCP average is now at Bush +4 including the Gallup numbers. Keep the foot on the accelerator everyone, there's at least one more MSM story waiting in the wings positioning Kerry as "closing the gap". And maybe one more DUI-style dirty trick to boot.
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http://directorblue.blogspot.com - click for various missives on the folly of John Kerry's candidacy. |
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srmorton
PO2
Joined: 07 Aug 2004
Posts: 383
Location: Jacksonville, NC
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| Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:03 pm Post subject: |
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I think this poll is more accurate than the one that showed them tied
at 48% that came out the evening after the debate. This one is far
enough removed from the debate so that most people not only know
about John Kerry's tasteless comment about Mary Cheney, but they
have also seen the replay. You can see in John Kerry's face that it
was a calculated move to mention her name in that context and most
of the American people see the comment for what it was and not how
the Kerry people have tried to spin it. A mistake like that can really
turn this election because it so clearly shows what kind of person
John Kerry is and that kind of person is not worthy of being CinC.
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jataylor11
Vice Admiral
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 856
Location: Woodbridge, Virginia
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| Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:06 pm Post subject: |
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I think that the polls may be correct in one respect. The population of registered voters is almost equally divided. The gap shows up when likely voters are questioned. That is why President Bush pulls ahead. Why
(1) This year "educated" voters will vote on security as the major issue and all other issues --- pocketbook/wallet --- taxes, healthcare, jobs, will be secondary. If you understand that President Bush is the only candidate with a dedication and viable plan for winning the war on terrorism .... then you will vote for President Bush.
(2) If the voter is voting pocketbook/wallet issues first --- then Kerry's liberalism --- big government, big taxes will slant your vote against Kerry
and for President Bush.
(3) If the voter is just anti-President Bush and not a big tax and spend liberal who thinks governemnt solves all problems --- Kerry's liberalism scares you enough to stay home and not vote --- This is the cause for the substantial drop between registered voter and likely voter opinon --- those who dislike President Bush/Republicans --- but worry more about Kerry emptying their wallets --- After all this is the crowd that thinks "What about me -- first and always. -- The security of our country, our neighbors, our future is irrelevant --- they also think that they are not a potential terrorist target (denial). |
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twicearound
PO2
Joined: 02 Sep 2004
Posts: 362
Location: San Antonio
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2004 2:11 am Post subject: |
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TRY THIS OPINION ON FOR SIZE, FROM NRO KERRY SPOT
http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp
| Quote: | REMAIN CAUTIOUS ABOUT THOSE POLLS! [10/17 09:34 PM]
Yes, the Gallup poll of likely voters has Bush up, 52 to 44. Yes, Bush’s approval rating in that poll is at 55 percent.
Don’t get excited if you’re a Bush supporter. Don’t get depressed if you’re a Kerry supporter. The polls at this point are bouncing around too wildly, and the internal breakdown by party isn’t out yet. My guess is, Gallup polled more Republicans than its previous one. In fact, I will be shocked if Gallup didn’t poll more Republicans as a percentage than their last poll.
Stephen Den Beste suggests that pollsters are intentionally skewing their data. He writes:
In my opinion, the polls were being deliberately gimmicked, in hopes of helping Kerry. In early August it looks as if there was an attempt to engineer a "post-convention bounce", but it failed and was abandoned after about two weeks. But I'm not absolutely certain about that.
The data for September, however, is clearly an anomaly. The data is much too consistent. Compare the amount of jitter present before September to the data during that month. There's no period before that of comparable length where the data was so stable.
The September data is also drastically outside of previous trends, with distinct stairsteps both at the beginning and at the end. And the data before the anomaly and after it for both Kerry and Bush matches the long term trendlines.
If I saw something like that in scientific or engineering data, I'd be asking a lot of very tough questions. My first suspicion would be that the test equipment was broken, but in the case of opinion polls there is no such thing. My second suspicion would be fraud.
In September, I think there was a deliberate attempt to depress Kerry's numbers, so as to set up an "October comeback". Of course, the goal was to engineer a bandwagon.
I don’t know if his theory is right, but the wild swings over the past few months suggest that the pollsters ought to be a bit more modest when they hype their results. Apparently, a ten point lead can disappear within a day or two.
Let me also reassert that one week from today will start the last full week of the campaign. This means each side is going to have an enormous interest in convincing you that they are ahead. Each side needs to convince their core supporters that they’re riding to victory, and try to depress the supporters of the other guy. If they have to fudge some poll numbers, they will do it. If they have to skew the sample, they'll do it. If they have to shrink the sample size, they will do it. If campaign staffers, pundits, and repoters have to offer blustery comments about how great the campaign's "internal polls" look, they'll do it.
Powerline recalls that “On just about this date in 2000, Gallup reported that George Bush had a 13-point lead over Al Gore, 52% to 39%. This result was an obvious outlier with no apparent relation to what was happening in the campaign. The final Gallup poll had Bush winning by 2 points.” |
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twicearound
Last edited by twicearound on Mon Oct 18, 2004 2:17 am; edited 1 time in total |
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ProudDaughterofVet
Commander
Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 340
Location: New York
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2004 2:13 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | No. Some polls are legitimate and are statitiscally well founded. I do believe that Bush is ahead by at least 6%, and it is well above the margin error. I have been long convinced that, assuming there are no massive frauds committted by the Dems, Bush would win by at least 6-9% margin in the election. But hey, even with this in mind, it's not the time to be complacent. |
I fully agree..this is IMHO, correct!! There is a point in any election when decisions are fully made by the voter. The polls were back and forth because of nifty statistical juggling by pollsters..Dems % vs Rep%..what you are seeing is that this DEADHEAT is non existant, why? So that we all pay attention to the news, watch the cable news, buy the papers..but this time, the voters have made their decision..The more you see of Kerry the less you like Kerry..and the little nugget, the MSM is overlooking..was in the third debate..when Bush talked from the heart about faith and family..and Kerry looked uncomfortable, his eyes shifted all over and simply said, "yes, I married up!"..
complacent..of course not..but Bush is up..and unless some major disaster explodes..he will be just fine..and of course WE VOTE and get all our friends, and family..and church members..to VOTE..
Keep the faith and continue the march to November 2!!!
PD
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jim_nyc
Seaman
Joined: 13 Sep 2004
Posts: 198
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2004 2:45 am Post subject: |
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| twicearound wrote: | | Powerline recalls that “On just about this date in 2000, Gallup reported that George Bush had a 13-point lead over Al Gore, 52% to 39%. This result was an obvious outlier with no apparent relation to what was happening in the campaign. The final Gallup poll had Bush winning by 2 points.” |
I would like to suggest an alternative way to look at that. The poll was right but the democrats were cheating. 
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joeshero
Commander
Joined: 30 Aug 2004
Posts: 321
Location: Midwest
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2004 3:01 am Post subject: |
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| jim_nyc wrote: | [
I would like to suggest an alternative way to look at that. The poll was right but the democrats were cheating. |
LOL, right on!! I really can't wait for Nov 2. Big win, unless all dead people vote for Kerry. I know over optimistic is not good, but highly pessimistic is an excellent recipe for a disaster. As others have pointed out, the MSM are deliberately trying to keep the balance, otherwise the libs should have been pessimistic now.
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All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. |
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azpatriot
Senior Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 593
Location: Arizona
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2004 3:44 am Post subject: |
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The only poll I'll trust is the one I'll bend over Kerry's head BONG!!!  
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sdonions
PO3
Joined: 21 Jul 2004
Posts: 294
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2004 4:05 am Post subject: |
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| azpatriot wrote: | | The only poll I'll trust is the one I'll bend over Kerry's head BONG!!! |
Thanks AZ. When you bust em up side of the head will you give one for the Swifties, one for the POWs and another one for the rest of us.  |
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