Steve Z
Rear Admiral
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 687
Location: West Hartford CT
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 Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:35 pm Post subject: Good News from a Poll |
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http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=227
New Pew poll for October 1 - 3:
Registered Voters Bush 48 Kerry 41
Likely Voters Bush 49 Kerry 44
Who won Debate?: Kerry 58 Bush 26
Kerry changes mind too much? Yes 49 No 41
Kerry gives too much say to allies? Yes 43 No 44
Bush made misjudgments on Iraq? Yes 46 No 50
Bush too inflexible on foreign policy? Yes 41 No 53
Internals (for Registered Voters):
Republican: Bush 90 Kerry 3
Democrat: Bush 9 Kerry 85
Independent: Bush 42 Kerry 39
From this we can calculate sample as 33.5% R, 30.6% D, 35.9% I. Sample slightly biased toward Republicans, but Bush gets 5% more of his own party, 6% more of crossovers, and 3% more of independents. Bottom Line: After the debate, Bush is still ahead!
Electoral College implications:
Battleground States: Bush 54 Kerry 39
Midwest: Bush 53 Kerry 38
While the "battleground states" and "Midwest" are a smaller sample, which may be biased, these numbers look good for Bush winning the Electoral College.
Even after that awful debate, Kerry hasn't won the election yet! And that remark about providing nuclear fuel to Iran might haunt him...
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The traitor will crater! |
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