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Good News from a Poll

 
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Steve Z
Rear Admiral


Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 687
Location: West Hartford CT

PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:35 pm    Post subject: Good News from a Poll Reply with quote

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=227

New Pew poll for October 1 - 3:

Registered Voters Bush 48 Kerry 41
Likely Voters Bush 49 Kerry 44

Who won Debate?: Kerry 58 Bush 26

Kerry changes mind too much? Yes 49 No 41
Kerry gives too much say to allies? Yes 43 No 44
Bush made misjudgments on Iraq? Yes 46 No 50
Bush too inflexible on foreign policy? Yes 41 No 53

Internals (for Registered Voters):
Republican: Bush 90 Kerry 3
Democrat: Bush 9 Kerry 85
Independent: Bush 42 Kerry 39

From this we can calculate sample as 33.5% R, 30.6% D, 35.9% I. Sample slightly biased toward Republicans, but Bush gets 5% more of his own party, 6% more of crossovers, and 3% more of independents. Bottom Line: After the debate, Bush is still ahead!

Electoral College implications:

Battleground States: Bush 54 Kerry 39
Midwest: Bush 53 Kerry 38

While the "battleground states" and "Midwest" are a smaller sample, which may be biased, these numbers look good for Bush winning the Electoral College.

Even after that awful debate, Kerry hasn't won the election yet! And that remark about providing nuclear fuel to Iran might haunt him...
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Doc Jerry
Commander


Joined: 28 May 2004
Posts: 339

PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ABC today: 51-46 Bush with some very positive internals for Bush.
Zogby: 46-43
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