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neverforget · Vice Admiral Joined: 18 Jul 2004 Posts: 875

>>On the day of the second Presidential Debate, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%.<<

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
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Fort Campbell · Vice Admiral Joined: 31 Aug 2004 Posts: 896

Good news. I only hope it is higher tomorrow.

msindependent · Posted: Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:37 pm Post subject:

I'd say the heat is on Kerry then.

Fort Campbell · Vice Admiral Joined: 31 Aug 2004 Posts: 896

Bumping up so I can check it again after 12 Noon. Razz

coolhand · PO3 Joined: 26 Aug 2004 Posts: 255 Location: MA/RI

10/11 Rasmussen poll has Bush up by 4 (49 to 45). Zogby had Bush down by 3 (Now he has them tied at 45 tot 45) and Washington post has Bush slowly pulling away with a 6 point lead (51 to 45) and CBS has Bush leading by 3 (48 to 45) while they were tied at 47 to 47 after the first debate. Yet all the headlines are reading the race is "tied" even though BUSH HAS GAINED IN EVERY SINGLE POLL TO COME OUT SINCE THE SECOND DEBATE.

Try as they may, the MSM cannot change the reality and the reality is that Cheney and Bush in his second debate stopped Kerry's momentum and now pulling back ahead into a 3 to 4 point lead.

buffman · LCDR Joined: 21 Aug 2004 Posts: 437

In reality this number matters not----it is the electoral college that must be watched. Last one I saw was Bush 274-260.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
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coolhand · PO3 Joined: 26 Aug 2004 Posts: 255 Location: MA/RI

Me#1You#10 · Site Admin Joined: 06 May 2004 Posts: 6503

Rasmussen appears to be pretty conservative in "calling" electorals for either candidate...gotta like this trend tho...

Electoral College 2004

Date Bush Kerry

RasmussenReports.com

Fort Campbell · Vice Admiral Joined: 31 Aug 2004 Posts: 896

It can get confusing. I was surprised that CNN shows Bush with over 300 Electoral Votes because all of their Polls show the race as a dead heat. And I am tired of trying to explain the difference between the popular vote and the Electoral College to people. Did they stop teaching Civics Classes in our schools? Confused

Endaar · Posted: Tue Oct 12, 2004 6:04 pm Post subject:

2ndamendsis · PO3 Joined: 08 Sep 2004 Posts: 288 Location: NJ

JimRobson · Posted: Tue Oct 12, 2004 6:15 pm Post subject:

Here's the latest chart. It's not as pretty as yesterday, but it is still very positive.

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coolhand · PO3 Joined: 26 Aug 2004 Posts: 255 Location: MA/RI

Is it just me or are we letting the Dems win the spin war. Here's the latest poll from ICR: Bush +5 among likely voters and +3 among registered. Kery's little bounce from the first debate is clearly stopped and he is not getting any more traction.

http://www.icrsurvey.com/ICRInTheNews/Presidential_Tracker_1012.html

Bush won the second debate and the polls are reflecting that

Steve Z · Posted: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:03 pm Post subject: Rasmussen Poll

I'm wondering if the Dem spin is starting to hit voters, because in today's Rasmussen poll, Bush dropped from 49.0 to 47.4%, and Kerry went up from 45.4 to 45.8%, a net gain of 2.0% for Kerry. Since these are three-day moving averages, the single-day drop might be larger, or else some earlier polling days when Bush was strong (the post-VP debate bounce) have dropped out of the average. It might be an outlier poll day, but we'll have to see what happens over the next few days.

Also, Rasmussen now has Kerry leading IA 50-46, although Bush now leads Ohio 50-45 (Oct 9) and Florida 49-45.

A lot will hinge on how well Bush handles the third debate, on domestic policy.

If Bush wins both Ohio and Florida, he wins the election, even if Kerry wins PA, WI, MN, NH, IA, and NM. WI, MN, and NM are extremely close, which could save Bush if he loses OH.

If SBVT runs any more ads, they should probably be targeted to Ohio first, then WI, IA, MN, and PA.
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Nathanyl · PO3 Joined: 24 Aug 2004 Posts: 280

Watch trends and not the numbers. The numbers of any individual polls are nearly meaningless. The trend was going down for Bush through the week after the first debate, after that it leveled out and now there's a definite upward trend for Bush. As long as Bush does well during tomorrows debate I think he'll win the election.
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