SwiftVets.com

shawa · CNO Joined: 03 Sep 2004 Posts: 2004

In the new Zogby Poll today President has opened a 4 point lead
over John Kerry.

BUSH 48
KERRY 44

Poll was Bush 46/ Kerry 45 yesterday with pre-debate data.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&u=/nm/20041015/pl_nm/campaign_poll_friday_dc_5

Fort Campbell · Vice Admiral Joined: 31 Aug 2004 Posts: 896

Thanks, Shawa! I have a ton of laudry to do and it is raining here. Good news will make the work go easier. Very Happy

Nathanyl · PO3 Joined: 24 Aug 2004 Posts: 280

Even better Bush's lead in the RCP average is starting to climb again. The trend seems to be showing an upswing for Bush. Let's keep our fingers crossed. Smile

_________________
Bill Hershey
www.worldwar4.net

coolhand · PO3 Joined: 26 Aug 2004 Posts: 255 Location: MA/RI

This is the first poll to come out that polled people after the debate. The new tied Wash post poll didnt include the third debate or the Mary Cheney stuff. Also, Zogby had Bush down by three last week. That's a seven point swing. Definate momentum.

Chuck Z Ombie AC2000 · Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 1:41 pm Post subject:

Tomorrow kerry will most likely have a 5 point lead, those polls are fixed and biased, just gather as many friends as possible to vote for Bush on nov 2 .
_________________
John Kerry, R.I.P. (Rot In Paris)

RogerRabbit · Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 1:57 pm Post subject:

According to the "selective question answerer" from Time magazine Laura Ingram just interviewed one would think that by his reading of the polls sKerry had it wrapped up.

He really did a lot of dancing at her questions

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"Si vis pacem, para bellum"

Nathanyl · PO3 Joined: 24 Aug 2004 Posts: 280

Steve Z · Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:14 pm Post subject: Rasmussen Poll

More good news from the Rasmussen poll.

Today is the first day including samples polled after the last debate.

Bush 49.0 Kerry 45.5.

Compared to the previous poll (all pre-debate), Bush is up +1.4, Kerry down -0.7, a net gain of 2.1% for Bush.

Since this is a three-day moving average, this could indicate a bigger bounce once the pre-debate polls drop out of the sample.

Kerry shot himself in the foot trying to read Mary Cheney's mind--but the Swifties know that he's good at self-inflected wounds!!!
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The traitor will crater!

Nathanyl · PO3 Joined: 24 Aug 2004 Posts: 280

I was just looking at the Rasmusson poll and it shows Bush trending up since the debate. The other very interesting thing about that poll is Kerry's numbers. During Kerry's strongest period the highest percentage he could get was 47.0 on Oct 5th which was still bleeding from that first debate. Since that point he has trended downward and is stuck around 45 percent. The more I see the more I'm convinced that Kerry is in very deep trouble. We can't get complacent but I'm liking what I see.
_________________
Bill Hershey
www.worldwar4.net

Chuck Z Ombie AC2000 · Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:44 pm Post subject:

Those polls are biased i tells ya Smile

They want bushies to think we got it in the bag then in the last week they will shift 12 points and all of a suddent the race will be closer than expected. make sure you vote and get your friends to vote bush too. Even if Bush wins in a landslide he will still get sued. make that lead as big as possible .
_________________
John Kerry, R.I.P. (Rot In Paris)

joeshero · Commander Joined: 30 Aug 2004 Posts: 321 Location: Midwest

Navy_Navy_Navy · Admin Joined: 07 May 2004 Posts: 5777

Swear that NOTHING will keep you from voting, no matter what the "polls" are saying.

Let none of them convince you that Bush has it sewed up and doesn't need your vote. Let none of them convince you that Kerry has it sewed up and your vote won't make any difference.

Just make it inviolable - that you will vote no matter what.

Think how terrible you will feel if, after election day, it turns out that your state needed some ridiculously small number of anti-Kerry votes to turn the electoral votes from blue to red.
_________________
~ Echo Juliet ~
Altering course to starboard - On Fire, Keep Clear
Navy woman, Navy wife, Navy mother

Whacker77 · Ensign Joined: 06 Sep 2004 Posts: 55

Obviously, I'm happy with the new numbers from Zogby. It's good to see Bush climbing in the polls. But a word of caution on Zogby. His polling has been very erratic lately. Just five days ago, he had Kerry with a three point lead. Now, he has Bush up four.

These types of moves are tough to judge because of the way tracking polls operate. If two days are the same but the third day is skewed, it can give a inaccurate result. It will take at least three more days to see if the move is sutained or a one day blip.

It's best to take the RCP average on the polls. A tracking poll can drive a person nuts, but fortunately we have several operating. Rasmussen, Zogby, TIPP, and the Washington Post each have a tracking poll that uses a three day sample. Battleground is also doing a tracking poll, but they only release their daily results on Sunday.

Right now, these polls are genarally showing Bush up by 3-4 points. The Washington Post poll is the "outlier" at 48-48. It should be noted that Bush went from a seven point lead to a one point deficit in just two days. A good Kerry result goes by the wayside tomorrow. Take them all in and keep your fingers crossed. If Bush gets to four or five ahead, then look out!