GoEagles
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Posts: 147
Location: Philadelphia
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 Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 8:46 pm Post subject: |
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Here's the results -
http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/cuyahoga/1099129007156500.xml
| Quote: |
Bush-Kerry race tightens in state
Saturday, October 30, 2004
Mark Naymik
Plain Dealer Politics Writer
Ohio voters are nearly split over their choice for president, according to a new Plain Dealer poll that shows President Bush's lead over John Kerry has shrunk to 3 percentage points, making the race statistically too close to call.
Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over his Democratic challenger, 48 percent to 45 percent, down from a Plain Dealer poll of the same size conducted in mid-September, when the president held an 8-point lead, 50 percent to 42 percent. Five percent of voters in the new poll say they are undecided, down from 6 percent in September.
The new poll, taken after Kerry's strong performances in the three presidential debates, suggests that voters have begun to embrace the Massachusetts Democrat as a presidential candidate.
Though a majority of Democratic voters surveyed 56 percent still cite their dislike of Bush as their top reason for backing Kerry, Democratic voters gave Kerry improved marks for his character and integrity.
Among those who say they are planning to vote for Bush, 50 percent cite his character and integrity as the top reason, followed by his leadership in the war on terror. The president's marks in both categories, however, are slightly lower than those in the previous poll.
The survey of 1,500 likely voters, conducted Oct. 26-28 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, meaning that either candidate's support could be 2.6 percentage points higher or lower.
Two percent of those interviewed for the new poll favor neither Bush nor Kerry and responded "other," though no specific alternatives were offered. Ralph Nader, who attracted 2 percent in the last Plain Dealer poll, was not included in the new poll because he has been dropped from the ballot for failing to properly collect petitions.
The Bush and Kerry campaigns responded cautiously to the poll numbers Friday, though both claimed that the numbers favor them and that their voter mobilization efforts will bring them a victory.
"This shows what we know that this race is tied and very close in Ohio," said Brendon Cull, a spokesman for the Ohio Democratic coordinated campaign. "What is going to be most important this year is the ground game, and our 170,000 volunteers are working hard talking to undecided voters and reminding people to vote on Election Day."
Cull attributed the improved numbers to Kerry's performance in the debates and to Kerry and John Edwards' frequent visits to Ohio in the first three weeks of October. Bush, on the other hand, did not campaign in the state for nearly three weeks in October.
"We certainly have the momentum in what was always expected to be a close race," Bush campaign spokesman Kevin Madden said.
Referring to Bush's three consecutive days of campaigning in the state this week, Madden said, "President Bush has used these last few hours of the campaign to make a very strong, very direct appeal to all Ohio voters. Couple that with our extensive grassroots organization that has every inch of the state covered, and it's fair to say we would much rather be in our position than theirs."
When compared with the September Plain Dealer poll, the new survey shows that Kerry has made more headway in pumping up his base and reaching into Bush's strongholds than Bush has in building on his base and swinging voters his way.
Kerry expanded his lead in Northeast Ohio, a Democratic stronghold, while cutting into Bush's lead in Republican stronghold southwest Ohio, where Bush's margin narrowed from 27 percentage points to 18.
Kerry gained ground in central Ohio and dramatically narrowed Bush's lead in socially conservative southeast Ohio, from 21 percentage points to just 4 percentage points, when compared with the September poll.
Cull said that's a reflection of Kerry and Edwards' recent campaigning in the southern and southeastern sections of the state, traditionally Republican country.
Bush improved on his lead over Kerry only in northwest Ohio, which includes Toledo and the state's farm belt. There, Bush improved his lead from 5 percentage points to 16 percentage points.
Some national polls conducted this week show voters slightly favor Bush, while others show voters prefer Kerry. The polls, however, show that neither candidate holds a lead much beyond the margin of error. And all of the polls suggest that Kerry has closed in on Bush when compared with polls taken last month.
Ohio voters were narrowly split in the 2000 election, with Bush defeating Al Gore by less than 4 percentage points. With 20 electoral votes up for grabs and most polls showing the race locked in the state, Ohio has remained the top priority of both campaigns. And in the last three days before the election, neither campaign will concede defeat. |
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"We cannot win this election" - John Fraud Kerry 11/3/04
Would you have gone to war with Iraq?
"You bet we might have" - John Fraud Kerry |
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