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GenrXr Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 05 Aug 2004 Posts: 1720 Location: Houston
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Posted: Tue Jun 20, 2006 5:02 am Post subject: As Iran and North Korea Rattle their Sabers, |
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As Iran and North Korea Rattle their Sabers, do we have anyone in the Pentagon who actually reads?
We are using the Aegis class warships as sensors says Gertz, yet the Heritage Foundation which was formed in the 90’s by a group of missile defense experts argues we should be placing our Aegis Cruisers on the west coast armed with SM-3 missiles.
Heritage notes in ‘War Footing’ that the SM-3 was successful in 5 out of 6 tests in 2005, yet at time of the books publication we only had a reserve of 3 SM-3’s.1 We have a proven missile intercept technology, yet the Pentagon continues to retire our cruisers while not adding SM-3’s to our arsenal.
We need to produce SM-3’s and place our retiring Aegis Cruisers on the west coast as missile defense platforms.
I have no problem with land based systems, yet until they are proven we must have our offshore Aegis system in place as an interceptor, not a sensor.
Anything else is pure incompetence.
Frank J. Gaffney and Colleagues, ‘War Footing’ Naval Institute Press 2006 pp. 282-284 _________________ "An activist is the person who cleans up the water, not the one claiming its dirty."
"All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to stand by and do nothing." Edmund Burke (1729-1797), Founder of Conservative Philosophy |
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dusty Admiral
Joined: 27 Aug 2004 Posts: 1264 Location: East Texas
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Posted: Tue Jun 20, 2006 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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Well, I'm not in a position to know but I'd say that the SM-3 is probably not our first line of missle defense. We should probably look skyward.
Just a guess of course.
Dusty _________________ Left and Wrong are the opposite of Right! |
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GenrXr Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 05 Aug 2004 Posts: 1720 Location: Houston
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Posted: Wed Jun 21, 2006 1:45 am Post subject: |
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dusty wrote: | Well, I'm not in a position to know but I'd say that the SM-3 is probably not our first line of missle defense. We should probably look skyward.
Just a guess of course.
Dusty |
The SM-4 might have replaced the SM-3, yet my point is whether SM-3 or SM-4 this techonology does work and should be part of our missile defense.
From 'War Footing'
pp. 282-283
A successful test in feb 2005 - the fifth success out of six attempts to date-proved that US Navy ships can track, intercept, and destroy a ballistic missile in flight. Best of all, they can do so using their existing AEGIS fleet air-defense systems and a new Standard Missile, known as the SM-3.
This test was particularly noteworthy for the confidence it provided in three areas. For the first time, the hardware and software used for the experiment were the same as will be installed in all other AEGIS missile defense ships. No less important is the fact that the SM-3 used to shoot down the target was one of the first of the production rounds to come off the manufacturing line. And, the personnel who performed the test were the regular crew of an operational navy ship, the USS Lake Erie.
The February test featured another signal development. A second AEGIS ship, the USS Russell, brought to bear for the first time a powerful upgrade to the vessels radar, known as the AEGIS Ballistic Missile Signal Processor (BMSP). This S-band radar provided real-time information that helped precisely identify and track, information that considerably enhances the likelihood of its successful interception. The AEGIS BMSP holds promise for greatly expanding missile defense radar coverage at a fraction of the cost of other approaches.
In other words, this was the "real deal." We can now begin with confidence to do what we should have done long ago: start deploying as quickly as possible sea-based missile defenses aboard AEGIS vessels to compliment the land-based antimissile systems now being placed in silos in Alaska and California. _________________ "An activist is the person who cleans up the water, not the one claiming its dirty."
"All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to stand by and do nothing." Edmund Burke (1729-1797), Founder of Conservative Philosophy |
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BuffaloJack Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 1637 Location: Buffalo, New York
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Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:24 am Post subject: |
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Now that North Korea has supposedly detonated a nuke, what is next?
Iran doesn't need to continue their nuke program. That nutbar in North Korea will just sell Iran a fully functional nuke. For that matter, Iran will probably have to get in line behind Osama at the N. Korean "Quickie-Nuke" checkout counter.
According the the USGS seismic readings, the NK blast was equivalent to 550 tons of TNT. For comparison, the Nagasaki blast had a 20-kiloton yield.
If you really think about it, NK could have just trucked 550 tons of conventional TNT into that abandoned coal mine and set it off. Who'd know the difference? The world would see them as joining the Nuke Club and nobody'd be the wiser. _________________ Swift Boats - Qui Nhon (12/69-4/70), Cat Lo (4/70-5/70), Vung Tau (5/70-12/71) |
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Schadow Vice Admiral
Joined: 30 Sep 2004 Posts: 936 Location: Huntsville, Alabama
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Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 4:38 pm Post subject: |
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BuffaloJack wrote: | .... According the the USGS seismic readings, the NK blast was equivalent to 550 tons of TNT. For comparison, the Nagasaki blast had a 20-kiloton yield. |
It's hard to imagine that the NK would purposely design a half-kiloton weapon. If they didn't and that's what they got, there's probably a weapons designer or two already on the way to the gulag.
The extrapolation of remote seismic readings to yield is tenuous at best. I wish we could swoop in there with a Predator or something similar to scoop up a sample of the gas which inevitably will seep to the surface. Analysis of the gas species could determine if the device had an efficient reaction or was a near-dud.
On the other hand, they could be going for the (inappropriately named) "suitcase" weapon for distribution via their Bombs-R-Us outlets. But, you don't need plutonium for those - so....?
I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Schadow _________________ Capt, 8th U.S. Army, Korea '53 - '54 |
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BuffaloJack Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 1637 Location: Buffalo, New York
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Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:11 am Post subject: |
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Did you ever see such a BS story in your life?
Kim didn't use enough explosives to make his hoax believeable, so now he's changed the story to claim that the bomb was a Neutron Bomb. - BUSTED !!! _________________ Swift Boats - Qui Nhon (12/69-4/70), Cat Lo (4/70-5/70), Vung Tau (5/70-12/71) |
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Schadow Vice Admiral
Joined: 30 Sep 2004 Posts: 936 Location: Huntsville, Alabama
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Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:20 pm Post subject: |
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BuffaloJack wrote: |
Did you ever see such a BS story in your life?
Kim didn't use enough explosives to make his hoax believeable, so now he's changed the story to claim that the bomb was a Neutron Bomb. - BUSTED !!! |
The lamestream press is never so lame as when it tries to deal with science. And, when it tries to take on nuclear physics, the press is totally out of touch with reality.
I suspect that this test will turn out to be a near-dud caused by imperfect mechanical geometry in the initiator explosives focus arrangement or mis-timing of detonators. Or, it really could have been just a really big chunk of high explosive posing as a nuke.
Tell ya' what we ought to do. Someone call the New York Times and tell them that the NK's are way ahead of the US in development of the (gasp!) Gravity Bomb, a weapon that will make nukes look like firecrackers. Can't reveal the source of the leak, of course, but in their haste to lock up another Pulitzer, they will run with it until someone notices that gravity bombs are merely conventional bombs dropped from airplanes. That would be a hoot.
Schadow _________________ Capt, 8th U.S. Army, Korea '53 - '54 |
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BuffaloJack Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 1637 Location: Buffalo, New York
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Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:32 pm Post subject: |
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Schadow,
You're a scoundrel after my own heart.
Jack _________________ Swift Boats - Qui Nhon (12/69-4/70), Cat Lo (4/70-5/70), Vung Tau (5/70-12/71) |
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baldeagle PO2
Joined: 27 Oct 2004 Posts: 362 Location: Grand Saline, Texas
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Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:02 pm Post subject: |
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Could "Dear Leader" have just dumped 500 tons or so of Ammonium Nitrate and fuel oil into a hole and set it off?
In April of 2004, they had a train explosion killing 100 people or so and injuring thousands, could that trainload have been intended for the same hole in the ground and just set off sooner than intended?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3649655.stm
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,117872,00.html
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2004/s1131470.htm _________________ "In a word, I want an American character, that the powers of Europe may be convinced we act for ourselves and not for others; this, in my judgment, is the only way to be respected abroad and happy at home." --George Washington |
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BuffaloJack Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 1637 Location: Buffalo, New York
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Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2006 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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Quote: |
from the National Review
Not Atomic [Michael Yon]
A very well-placed government source told me Tuesday afternoon that the North Korean explosion was non-nuclear. The explosion may have been an actual nuclear test — this is unknown — but the source reports the outcome was non-nuclear. The source stressed the importance of bearing in mind that though the explosion occured in North Korea — if it was actually a test and not merely a dictator clamoring for attention and influence — the test may have been by or for the Iranians. The source reported that American physicists with access to the information see no sign of nuclear activity, however. My source also mentioned that Japanese sensors picked up no radiation signatures.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmFmMjRhZDFmY2E1YjE4MWRhMWYzODE3Y2Y3YzI5NmQ= |
Busted !!!
It is now confirmed that Kim is a maniacal lying dwarf! _________________ Swift Boats - Qui Nhon (12/69-4/70), Cat Lo (4/70-5/70), Vung Tau (5/70-12/71) |
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GenrXr Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 05 Aug 2004 Posts: 1720 Location: Houston
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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:39 am Post subject: |
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Schadow wrote: | BuffaloJack wrote: |
Did you ever see such a BS story in your life?
Kim didn't use enough explosives to make his hoax believeable, so now he's changed the story to claim that the bomb was a Neutron Bomb. - BUSTED !!! |
The lamestream press is never so lame as when it tries to deal with science. And, when it tries to take on nuclear physics, the press is totally out of touch with reality.
I suspect that this test will turn out to be a near-dud caused by imperfect mechanical geometry in the initiator explosives focus arrangement or mis-timing of detonators. Or, it really could have been just a really big chunk of high explosive posing as a nuke.
Tell ya' what we ought to do. Someone call the New York Times and tell them that the NK's are way ahead of the US in development of the (gasp!) Gravity Bomb, a weapon that will make nukes look like firecrackers. Can't reveal the source of the leak, of course, but in their haste to lock up another Pulitzer, they will run with it until someone notices that gravity bombs are merely conventional bombs dropped from airplanes. That would be a hoot.
Schadow |
lmao that is too funny...a gravity bomb
what makes it so good is how dangerous it sounds haha _________________ "An activist is the person who cleans up the water, not the one claiming its dirty."
"All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to stand by and do nothing." Edmund Burke (1729-1797), Founder of Conservative Philosophy |
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GenrXr Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 05 Aug 2004 Posts: 1720 Location: Houston
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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:41 am Post subject: |
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I believe it is 'Our Dear Glorious Supreme Divine Leader Kim Jong Ill', now off to a gulag for 10 years for improper prefacing! _________________ "An activist is the person who cleans up the water, not the one claiming its dirty."
"All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to stand by and do nothing." Edmund Burke (1729-1797), Founder of Conservative Philosophy |
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NortonPete PO2
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 Posts: 385
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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 11:53 am Post subject: |
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Perhaps the bogus story could be enhanced a little.
North Korea working on an Anti-Gravity bomb.
The NYTimes would buy that. Oh the humanity, imagine people and
building suddenly flying out into space when hit with one.
But on a more serious note. I agree with the above analysis of the NK test.
And I'm not sure about the timing of the recent report of radiation being found right before the UN vote.
There is some small amount to be found everywhere.
What if the little Kim doesn't know it wasn't a real Nuke? What if those who
set it off just told him it worked? Now he hears another story in the foreign press that it was a dud?
This guy is capable of anything including insisting his
people set one off above ground. Perhaps for his birthday.
I remember that Sadam's Generals were telling him they had all kinds
of weapons, some of which may have been hoaxes. |
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Schadow Vice Admiral
Joined: 30 Sep 2004 Posts: 936 Location: Huntsville, Alabama
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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 7:22 pm Post subject: |
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I've been thinking some more about this NK nuke test (always a dangerous thing to do, I know). A recent article by Michael Goldfarb in The Weekly Standard posited the idea that the test could have been a research test of a primary, or "trigger", device for a two-stage fission/fusion, or three-stage fission/fusion/fission assembly (or "H-bomb").
A schematic for a three-stage, Teller-Ulam design, weapon is shown here:
The primary is a standard fission device whose principal purpose is to release an intense X-ray flux and doesn't add much, in itself, to the eventual yield of the whole assembly. The X-rays are reflected off the inner surface of the bomb casing and provide extreme compression to the mass of lithium hydride/lithium deuteride, encased in clunky old U238, which fuses into heavier atoms with a huge release of energy. In the case of a three-stage weapon, the fusion reaction then exerts great pressure on a core rod of plutonium which then fissions, augmenting the fusion process. And the whole enchilada then has a yield in the megaton range.
(Don't worry, no classified info revealed here. Details of all this is to be found in this Wikipedia article.) The article includes photos of many weapons including the Soviet's "Tsar Bomba" behemoth which, in a test, yielded 50 MT (that's 50 million tons TNT equivalent, the largest man-made explosion ever). Significantly, pictures of "physics packages", which contain all the stuff needed, are shown and are in the size range suitable for weapons as small as cruise missiles.
So, the NK could possibly have been testing a small first stage and measuring primarily the X-ray flux. (X-rays are instantaneous and would have no residue for later sampling.)
I'm not suggesting that the DPRK has the talent to work out all the geometries and other tech requirements to get to a biggie weapon but there's a lot of talent out there to help, including those nations who insisted on watering down the recently passed UN "sanctions". China itself once tested a 3.3 MT weapon (also pictured in the article).
Schadow _________________ Capt, 8th U.S. Army, Korea '53 - '54 |
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SBD Admiral
Joined: 19 Aug 2004 Posts: 1022
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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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From a post I made on 12/15/05 at Free Republic.
Quote: | “1994 Report 1: The North Korean Nuclear Arsenal is Deployed, Despite Face-Saving Agreements With the US The following report appeared in the July 31, 1994, edition of Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy .North Korea and the United States were preparing, in August [1994], to sign a deal which would “resolve their differences” over the DPRK’s military nuclear development. But the deal is merely intended to save face for all concerned. North Korea — the DPRK — already has deployed a substantial number of nuclear weapons and the US is not prepared to confront the matter. Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily November 19, 2002 Tuesday” |
Quote: | “North Korea — the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) — already has close to 10 operational nuclear warheads for its ballistic missiles, and two nuclear devices that can be carried by truck or transport aircraft. All the weapons are 50kt nuclear warheads, each weighing around 500kg (1,100lb.). All the DPRK’s ballistic missiles can carry nuclear warheads.” |
Quote: | “Since June 1992, activities intensified in the DPRK’s primary nuclear weapons site at Yongbyon, an elaborate underground complex called Building 500. Pyongyang argued that the building was merely a nuclear waste storage site. In early 1993, the IAEA inspectors requested access to Building 500 to confirm what it was. The DPRK not only refused, but announced its withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The Korean People’s Army (KPA) quickly established 40 military encampments, three airbases, a major ammunition depot, and deployed some 300 heavy anti-aircraft guns around the entire Yongbyon complex. The IAEA’s continued insistence on inspecting Building 500 resulted in the DPRK’s declaring the Semi-War State, ordering mobilization of its armed forces. Presumably, North Korea would not have risked war over a dump site.” |
Quote: | “In order to confirm the status of the North Korean military nuclear capabilities, a high level delegation of West European diplomats and experts based in Beijing visited the DPRK in the early winter of 1993. Returning from Pyongyang in mid-December 1993, the delegation reported that the DPRK had “several atomic bombs and the vehicles to launch them”. The delegation confirmed much of the data provided by defectors, including that North Korea “has built several kilo[ton]-size bombs”. On the basis of the DPRK’s verified plutonium production at Yongbyon alone, the delegation concluded that the DPRK already had “at least half a dozen bombs” to be delivered by a growing arsenal of ballistic missiles.” |
Quote: | “Meanwhile, since the early 1980s, the DPRK gained access to both Iranian Western-educated scientists and the Libyan clandestine procurement infrastructure for Western technology. Tehran and Tripoli convinced Pyongyang to significantly expand its military nuclear program even before the initial phase was complete. Consequently, in the mid-1980s, the DPRK had access to Western nuclear technology, mainly West German, through the strategic cooperation between the DPRK, Libya, Syria, and Iran. Indeed, Ko Yong-Hwan confirmed that the North Korean nuclear program utilized diversified technology from West European sources. Indeed, key components of the DPRK’s new 50mw research reactor, built near the submarine base in Sinpo, are German-made. Like the Yongbyon complex, the Sinpo reactor is the center of a large scale underground complex. Simultaneously, in May 1989, the DPRK and the GDR signed a comprehensive agreement on the transfer of “substantial” amounts of German nuclear technology and nuclear weapons materials, including enriched uranium, to Pyongyang.” |
Quote: | “The Geneva accord constitutes a profound change in US policy concerning the North Korean nuclear arsenal. Washington gave up on preventing the DPRK from becoming a nuclear power. Washington even no longer insists on verifying the extent of the North Korean arsenal through IAEA inspection. Instead, the US opted to appease and bribe North Korea with the hope that Pyongyang would freeze its nuclear build-up. Washington is buying time while maintaining the charade that the DPRK does not have nuclear weapons. Consequently, the US and its allies have settled into the do-nothing-for-now mode, merely postponing the hour of reckoning.
All that time, Washington is getting used to the fact, although without acknowledging it publicly, that the threat of North Korean nuclear blackmail is already pending.” |
SBD |
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