SwiftVets.com

[jalexson]

Dear President Bush,

I’m concerned about an apparent inability to understand the situation in Iraq. Your critics, and possibly some of your advisors, don’t understand the type of situation that currently exists in Iraq.

All they can see is violence. They take a simplistic view that it must be some type of “war”. The actual situation is the type of situation that often occurs after the fall of a tyrant complicated by a long term ethnic conflict.

Tyrants discourage violence by creating a climate of fear. Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn refers to people living under a tyrant as “rabbits”. When the tyrant falls the fear ends. Those who had wished to act violently not longer feel afraid to do so. The remaining “rabbits” are afraid to tell on them or attempt to stop them. Supporters of the regime may use violence to attempt to reestablish the regime. Others(including outsiders) who would like power may use violence to try to take over.

Reestablishing order can be a long and difficult process which is the reason that violent overthrow of a tyrant often leads to just another tyrant. The disorder can allow a new tyrant to take power such as Napoleon eventually did after the French Revolution. New tyrants often seek to expand their control into neighboring countries.

Americans have an unrealistic expectation of quick results because of Hollywood. For example, they expect the police to solve crimes in an hour even though in the real world the capture of the BTK serial killer took Wichita police 30 years. In Hollywood everyone starts living happily ever after as soon as the tyrant is overthrown. In the real world, many years may be required to reestablish a functional government even when there is no violence.

The United States was worried that it would face guerrilla activity in Germany and Japan when it invaded them after World War II, but both nations had been so thoroughly destroyed the people no longer had any fight left in them. Neither country had the type of ethnic conflicts that exist in Iraq and many other Middle Eastern countries. Even with these advantages the U.S. needed several years to establish workable governments in both countries.

Ethnic conflicts aren’t limited to the Middle East. We had significant ethnic (racial) violence in the 60's, including fatal bombings and widespread destruction of property. Street gang violence in many cities often has ethnic overtones. The “troubles” in Northern Ireland between Catholics and Protestants continued for 30 years after British troops went in to try to stop the violence which often involved bombings.

The type of violence in Baghdad isn’t unique (remember the bombing of the Oklahoma City federal building), only the amount. Completely eliminating violence isn’t possible. The best that can be hoped for is reduction of the amount. Tyrants create a climate of fear to discourage violence. Democracies attempt to create an expectation of getting caught.
American police forces realize that they need cooperation of citizens to enforce laws. Crime is much harder to fight if citizens are afraid criminals will attack them if they help the police. Getting Iraqi citizens to help identify those who use violence should be a high priority, but may take time.

Some Iraqi police officers should be brought to the U.S. to learn community policing techniques from American police departments.

Getting Saudi Arabia to take over the Sunni area could be helpful. This action would eliminate the principle trouble makers from Iraq while allowing the Sunni to be part of a country with oil wealth. The role the Sunni played in the Hussein regime may make it too difficult for them to remain in the same nation as the Shia and Kurds.

You should consider replacing one of more of the generals in Iraq. Every general has different abilities. Three of our greatest generals in World War II, Dwight Eisenhower, George Patton and Douglas MacArthur, might have been far less successful if their roles had been switched. For example, Patton and MacArthur lacked the diplomatic personality to have been able to handle Eisenhower’s job which required work with British and French generals as well as American generals. American generals in Iraq need the ability to stabilize the situation rather than the ability to defeat an enemy on the battlefield.

Attempting to persuade Syria and Iran to help would be a total waste of time. Planting explosives in those countries to stop smuggling might be useful, if it can be done without getting caught. The Study Committee has the typical simplistic view of diplomacy. Diplomacy is rarely of any value against unfriendly nations unless the threat of force is available.
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"That awful power, the public opinion of a nation, is created in America by a horde of ignorant, self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditching and shoe making and fetched up in journalism on their way to the poor house."
-- Mark Twain

[BuffaloJack]

jalexson,
Well thought out and sharp collection of information.
Most is probably right on. I hadn't thought about the fact that nearly every country that outs a totalitarian government goes through this.
Jack
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Swift Boats - Qui Nhon (12/69-4/70), Cat Lo (4/70-5/70), Vung Tau (5/70-12/71)