SwiftVets.com

[noc]

I have been very skeptical of the Newsweek and Time polls ever since they cam out. I wonder whether the Main Stream Media isn't conspiring with the Kerry camp to create Kerry momentum. The Kerry folks are already predicting an even race by the end of the week.

Take a look at the current Rasmussen poll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Shows the race is Bush 47.6 and Kerry 46.4 almost even

This is not the time to become complacent and kick back. It is more important now then ever to work very hard. Keep writing letters. Keep pressuring the media and the Kerry camp to sign the SF180. Continue to spread the story of who Kerry really is and why he is unfit.

I hate to throw water on all the high fives but I think we all still have a great deal of work to do or am I just being overly pessimistic?

[deserturtle]

He doesn't include the Nader factor.
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The door to the room of success swings on the hinges of the opposition.

[Polaris]

noc,

That is the weekly number and it was done during the week of the RNC. That means the bounce is smeared to a certain degree. In fact this is true with most Rasmussen polls. Even so, the numbers I saw today showed a +2.8 Bush which is the highest in a long time. I pay more attention to the internals which look even better.

You are right that the race is still close and we can not let up. In addition, it is possible that Time/Newsweek oversampled GOP voters. However, it still does not look good for Kerry.
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-Polaris

Truth is Beauty

[LewWaters]

Personally, I place little stock in polls. Results are easily skewed to whatever the pollster wishes. This far out still, polls don't mean much either.

The obvious is that they report results much closer than other pollsters. Surely, they can't both be correct
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Clark County Conservative

[Wolfgang]

It's also important to note that whatevcer boost Bush did get is likely in large part a temporary "bpounce" from the convention, which boost will diminish as Kerry attacks more aggressively.

I hope and pray that Bush wins, but could not agree more here that now is not the time for complaceny.

Kerry always campaigns his best when he's behind--he's a very strong closer. Or so those who have followed him over the decades say. (He beat Howard Dean and William Weld by coming back from significant deficits, e.g.).

[rparrott21]

I have yet to talk to anyone about the election who is voting for Kerry...my poll says,, Bush 100% to Kerry 0%....

[noc]

[Chuck Z Ombie AC2000]

I think most polls are BS and that includes the ones that say the race is so close. The choices are,, The guy you know nothing about except that hes a conceited selfish sold elitist who out our troops to the enemy or the presdient who is good hearted god fearing guy who will fight to keep america safe and has a proven track record of doing it. That makes it a very simple choice and Kerry will be on his way back home desperately trying to figure out how his veitnam strategy failed him.
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John Kerry, R.I.P. (Rot In Paris)

[Lily]

I thought it was obvious Bush would get a bounce after his convention. Momentum had been moving toward Bush in Aug and through the convention, a convention that proved effective and convincing as more people tuned in to the GOP convention then the Dem convention. I thought Bush would be up about 5 points after the convention it's the 11 points that's surprising and what has the Kerry campaign shook up.As was pointed out on FOX, this late in the race challengers don't come back from this kind of deficit against an incumbent President.

[debinNC]

I think the 11 point spread was deliberated inflated (by overpolling Republicans) so that when the race inevitably tightens the MSM can replay the Comeback Kid script from 1992.

[Lily]

[noc]

[Dragoro]

Theres no way those two liberal rags would give that much of a bump to Bush after the RNC. They want Kerry to win, all thier articles show thier bias. Inflating Bush's numbers after the RNC would only benifit Bush by demoralizing the liberals and the Kerry campaign. Of all the polls done predicting the outcome of the 2000 election, the rassmussan poll was the most errored.
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[Polaris]

Noc,

That depends on what other pollsters have to say. For instance, I am waiting on the Network Polls and most especially on Gallup.

If Gallup shows no movement, then this approach is dead in the water.
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-Polaris

Truth is Beauty

[Dragoro]

FINAL PUBLIC OPINION POLLS: AMERICAN ELECTION 2000
Bush Gore Nader Buchanan * Lead Ave
Media (Pollster) 100% 47.6% 47.8% 3.6% 1.0% -0.2% Error
CBS 100% 47% 48% 4% 1% -1% 0.30
Fox (Opinion Dynamics) 100% 48% 48% 3% 1% 0% 0.30
Harris 100% 47% 47% 5% 1% 0% 0.65
CNN/USA Today (Gallup) 99% 48% 46% 4% 1% 2% 0.65
Reuters/MSNBC (Zogby) 100% 46% 48% 5% 1% -2% 0.80
Pew 100% 49% 47% 4% 0% 2% 0.90
IBD/CSM/TIPP 100% 48% 46% 4% 2% 2% 0.90
ABC 99% 49% 46% 3% 1% 3% 0.90
Washington Post 99% 49% 46% 3% 1% 3% 0.95
NBC/WSJ (Hart/Teeter) 100% 49% 46% 3% 2% 3% 1.20
Newsweek 100% 49% 46% 5% 0% 3% 1.40
Voter.com (Lake/Goeas) 100% 51% 46% 4% 0% 5% 1.65
Marist College 100% 51% 46% 2% 1% 5% 1.70
Hotline 99% 51% 43% 4% 1% 8% 2.15
Rasmussen 100% 52% 43% 4% 1% 9% 2.40
ICR 99% 46% 44% 7% 2% 2% 2.45
Sources: AEI, PollingReport.com, WP,NYT,Gallup,TIPP




http://members.cox.net/fweil/FinalPolls2000.html
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