SwiftVets.com

[Mary Ann Parker]

A positive prediction.
Make it a positive day.
Mary Ann Parker
*************************
With Carl Limbacher and NewsMax.com Staff
For the story behind the story...
Thursday, Oct. 28, 2004 1:22 a.m. EDT

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2004/10/28/12353.shtml

Political Scientists Predict a Bush Win

George Bush will win this year’s presidential election,
according to a study by the American Political Science Association.

The group developed seven models of the election results, six of which had Bush on top.
The APSA used "nine distinguished and nonpartisan political scientists" to predict the outcome of the race.

When averaged out, the experts’ results show that Bush will receive 53.8 percent of the popular vote.

Only one of the seven models predicts a razor-thin margin victory for John Kerry, with 50.1 percent of the vote.

All others show a solid lead for Bush.

The biggest Bush lead comes from Brad Lockerbie of the University of Georgia, who predicts that Bush will receive 57.6 percent of the popular vote.
Lockerbie examined party control of the White House, as well as Americans’ financial expectations over the next year.

Political scientists from several universities around the country used a wide range of historical information and current data, including the economy, the polls and Bush’s status as an incumbent.
A big consideration was also the amount of time each party has controlled the White House.

The results of this study appear in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, a journal of the American Political Science Association.

Joseph Taranto contributed to this report.