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Jack Mclaughlin
PO3
Joined: 13 May 2004
Posts: 280
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 Posted: Tue Jun 29, 2004 6:10 pm Post subject: Bush approval ratings down, yet, picks up 8% on Kerry |
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| In the most recent CBS-New York Times Poll Bush`s approval rating drops to 42% yet he picks up 8% against Kerry. This can only mean that the American people are learning who this guy Kerry is, thanks to groups like the Swift Vets. This poll was prior to the Iraq turnover and also before the Consumer sentiment numbers released today showing confidence best in two years. Things are coming together folks but let`s keep the pressure on. |
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coldwarvet
Admiral
Joined: 03 Jun 2004
Posts: 1125
Location: Minnetonka, MN
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| Posted: Tue Jun 29, 2004 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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AMEN
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Defender of the honor of those in harms way keeping us out of harms way.
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fortdixlover
Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 12 May 2004
Posts: 1476
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| Posted: Tue Jun 29, 2004 7:31 pm Post subject: Re: Bush approval ratings down, yet, picks up 8% on Kerry |
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| Jack Mclaughlin wrote: | | In the most recent CBS-New York Times Poll Bush`s approval rating drops to 42% yet he picks up 8% against Kerry. This can only mean that the American people are learning who this guy Kerry is, thanks to groups like the Swift Vets. This poll was prior to the Iraq turnover and also before the Consumer sentiment numbers released today showing confidence best in two years. Things are coming together folks but let`s keep the pressure on. |
The fact that the media is full-bore against Bush, to the point of propaganda that would make Goebbels proud, and yet Bush is a strong contender, is a sign of sanity returning.
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mikest
PO2
Joined: 11 May 2004
Posts: 377
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| Posted: Tue Jun 29, 2004 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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Alittle historical perspective.
| Quote: | Kohut of the Pew center pointed out in his Times piece that the lack of a direct correlation between an incumbent’s decline in the polls and a challenger’s ascent was “the same … in the 1980 race. President Jimmy Carter's favorable rating in the Gallup surveys sank from 56 percent in January to 38 percent in June, yet he still led Ronald Reagan in Gallup's horse-race measures. For much of the rest of the campaign, voters who disapproved of Mr. Carter couldn't decide whether Mr. Reagan was an acceptable alternative.”
“Similarly,” Kohut wrote, “in May 1992 President George H. W. Bush had only a 37 percent approval rating according to a Times Mirror Center survey, but the same poll showed him with a modest lead, 46 percent to 43 percent, over Bill Clinton. Only the Democratic convention and the debates brought about an acceptance of Mr. Clinton.” |
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4962832/ |
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nakona
Lieutenant
Joined: 04 Jun 2004
Posts: 242
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| Posted: Tue Jun 29, 2004 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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Mike -
Correllation does not equal causation.
Reagan won because America wanted it's hostages back and Clinton won because there wasn't sufficient time between the economic recovery of 1992 and the election.
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mikest
PO2
Joined: 11 May 2004
Posts: 377
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| Posted: Tue Jun 29, 2004 8:31 pm Post subject: |
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| nakona wrote: | Mike -
Correllation does not equal causation.
Reagan won because America wanted it's hostages back and Clinton won because there wasn't sufficient time between the economic recovery of 1992 and the election. |
I'm not saying this is proof that Bush will lose. But this is also from that article.
| Quote: | Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll, said Bush’s slowly sinking job approval rating, down to 46 percent in his latest survey, was similar to the dropping trajectory of the last three incumbents to lose their elections -- George Bush, the current president’s father, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford.
In contrast, the five most recent incumbent presidents who won their elections never dipped below 50 percent in their job approval rating at any point in the election year, he said.
“The Bush campaign has to be concerned and worried at this point,” Newport said. “When you look at the trend, you certainly see that Bush is beginning to track the trajectory of the three losing presidents rather than the winners.”
The 46 percent who approved of Bush’s handling of the job in Monday’s Gallup poll was the lowest of his presidency. An NBC/Wall St. Journal poll last week put his approval rating at 47 percent, with 49 percent saying he did not deserve re-election and 50 percent saying the country was headed in the wrong direction.
Low approval and re-election numbers are particularly bad for an incumbent, who already is well known to voters. Undecided voters, who have had plenty of time to evaluate the incumbent, often break heavily for the challenger.
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War Dog
Captain
Joined: 10 May 2004
Posts: 517
Location: Below Birmingham Alabama
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| Posted: Tue Jun 29, 2004 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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Polls really do not matter at this point. What matters is what happens on November 2nd, 2004. That's when the American People will decide on who is to be the next President, either Bush or Kerry. Polls are very selective, depending on who is doing the poll, the exact wording of the questions, the area of the US where the poll is conducted, and many more factors. Polls can be configured to get the results you want, and I'm not saying that anyone, either dem or rep is doing that, but it happens on both sides.
It's Way Past Time For The Gloves To Come Off!
FRIGGIN WAR WOOF!
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nakona
Lieutenant
Joined: 04 Jun 2004
Posts: 242
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| Posted: Tue Jun 29, 2004 10:27 pm Post subject: |
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Mike -
Do you understand the concept embodied in the phrase; "correllation does not equal causation"?
Because your response suggests that you don't.
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LewWaters
Admin
Joined: 18 May 2004
Posts: 4042
Location: Washington State
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| Posted: Wed Jun 30, 2004 3:26 am Post subject: |
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With the endless garbage that has been spewed about Bush since he won the election, Kerry, if he were really that popular, should be up by a good 15 points or better.
That he continually lags behind just shows how people really see him. As more and more vets come forward, watch his ratings drop even lower. |
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