SwiftVets.com

[Me#1You#10]

IMHO, early reports designating a "trend" favoring one candidate can serve to lower turnout for that candidate. I don't think Drudge is doing His Fraudulence any favors.

[GoEagles]

Looks like Drudge has the same numbers posted now. It's not good:

.........AZ..CO..LA..PA..OH..FL..MI..NM..MN..WI..IA..NH
Bush..55..51..57..40...48..48..47..48...40...43..49..41
Kerry.45..48..42..60...52..51..51..50...58...52..49..57
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"We cannot win this election" - John Fraud Kerry 11/3/04

Would you have gone to war with Iraq?
"You bet we might have" - John Fraud Kerry

[swctexas]

Exit polls do not reflect early voters. 1/4 of the electorate has voted in early voting states. Traditionally, 50%+ of these voters vote Republican.

I have always been an exit poll watcher. This year, they are out the window.

LET NOT YOUR HEARTS BE TROUBLED!

SWC

[Steve Z]

Kerry winning by 20% in PA and 18% in MN? Dream on!!!

Exit polls had Gore winning FL by 6% in 2000, and the real vote was just about a tie. They polled some 4,000-odd voters, about of 6 million total, or about 0.07%.

In a book about the 2000 election "How Al Gore Tried to Steal the Election", there's an anecdote about a computer operator who somehow messed up typing in the exit-poll results from Duval County, and the result was 99% for Gore, which was then extrapolated to all of Duval County. In the actual vote, Bush won over 60% of Duval County (heavily populated Jacksonville area), and that error alone was a major part of the error between the exit-polls and the actual election results.

The problem with exit polls is where people get them. They can't exit-poll at every precinct, so they probably cherry-pick precincts. If they want a big sample, they go to the heavily urbanized areas, which are more Democrat than average. Even if they throw in a few rural or suburban precincts, they get less people there, so the average is still skewed toward Democrats.

The Kerry people can crow about exit polls now, and eat crow later. Let's wait for "hard numbers" from the Secretaries of State!
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The traitor will crater!

[the0point]

Those numbers are correct, Drudge is reporting them. But the polls right now are unreliable. It's just a sampling of people who have voted. I just don't see Kerry winning any battleground state by four points like Drudge has him in Florida or Ohio. It would be a lot closer. Plus, from National Review, the GOP pollsters have been trolling around for anything to be worried about and haven't raised any warning flags yet. The key is getting out the vote. Poll numbers are all but meaningless now...it's a foot race to the finish.

DNC/MSM/Moveon vs. GOP. The battle will not be won until the battle is won because the MSM will never let you see Kerry bleeding.

[peter]

[GoEagles]

Drudge has now removed the numbers, but he's added "But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio".
_________________
"We cannot win this election" - John Fraud Kerry 11/3/04

Would you have gone to war with Iraq?
"You bet we might have" - John Fraud Kerry

[Proud*American]

Drudge says "But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE... " I feel confident these early polls will switch to favor Bush in a few hours.

[ccr]

Drudge has changed his headline. It now reads:

[WallaceNails]

Drudge has CHANGED his headline:

Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE...




KERRY FINDS COMFORT IN FIRST BATCH OF EXIT POLLS; BOTH CAMPS URGE CAUTION
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FOUR MORE YEARS!!!!!!!!!

[the0point]

"But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio"

That sampling is outragously favorable to Kerry! This is it people, the last gasp of the MSM trying to drag Kerry over the finish line. If they can muddy the hype of a Bush win and show Kerry has some fight then they can try to depress Bush turnout, especially in Florida. We can't let this happen! I say we flood message boards with this sampling info and get back into a positive mood. Kerry is going down in flames. And if you know someone who hasn't voted yet, drive them to the polls.

[cpowkj]

I hope these numbers don't hold up. We need OH & FL. If you live in those states--get everybody you know to the polls.
_________________
Chief Johnson
Young Vietnam Era Vet, was at Yankee Station on USS Coral Sea (CVA-43) during fall of Siagon, April 1975. Also, participated in rescue of the Merchant Ship Migues from Cambodia, May 1975. Currently, drilling reservist supporting CENTCOM.

[IpsoFacto]

Early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio.

Also, the voters in the morning tend to be people without jobs, more women than men and lots of college age kids. Family people, couples tend to vote in the Afternoon Rush. That is where Bush is strong.

Though, Britt Hummes has just said that Bush is toasted. What the heck!! Did i hear right?

[Steve Z]

No offense to the women on this forum, but women do tend to vote more Democrat than men. If a sample is used with 18% more women than men, that will definitely help Kerry in an exit poll.

The other problem with exit polls is: how do they choose which precincts to cover? Can they be sure that the precincts they choose are representa-tive of the state electorate?
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The traitor will crater!

[concernedgranny]

No, Brit was talking about 4 yrs. ago, and that the Bush campaign thought that they were losing and one of them made a gesture toward his neck. No he was saying that these first exit polls are not accurate and take a wait and see attitude.