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RogerRabbit
Master Chief Petty Officer


Joined: 05 Sep 2004
Posts: 748
Location: Oregon

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is a ridiculous rumor on the web that Kerry is ahead on exit polls...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF THIS!...This untrue rumor was started on the web by two internet gossip columnists and one of them now admits that her source is "not exactly trustworthy."

No one knows who is winning right now---get out and vote!

Please forward this to your email friends and help stop this fraud from being spread around the internet.
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mr_mechanical
Lt.Jg.


Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 121
Location: Virginia

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

peter wrote:
carpro wrote:
peter wrote:
Bush needs to pull a rabbit out of a hat. ....

What happened?



What makes you say that?

Nothing I've seen so far is cause for alarm.


Listen I HATE KERRY as much as anyone , but online betting has moved from $60 margin call to now its in the $29... The money have dramaticly moved to Kerry. (Kerry numbers have exactly reversed)

Drudgereport and Sean H. says Bush down 2 nationally (popular vote is over) and 1% down in Ohio and Fl. We need both.

The MONEY is the best indicator and the MONEY (on-line futures betting) has moved dramaticly toward Kerry.

Obviously, the hope is Ohio and Florida somehow come back and he wins electorial college even while losing popular vote.

If I lived in FLORIDA or Ohio (I live in NY) I'd be beating down doors.


I don't buy the futures indicator -- it is driven by highly emotional speculators based on data coming in from non-scientific and possibly tainted exit poll data. Watch those number change back to Bush big time as news favorable news hits.
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carpro
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Joined: 10 May 2004
Posts: 1176
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

peter wrote:
carpro wrote:
peter wrote:
Bush needs to pull a rabbit out of a hat. ....

What happened?



What makes you say that?

Nothing I've seen so far is cause for alarm.


Listen I HATE KERRY as much as anyone , but online betting has moved from $60 margin call to now its in the $29... The money have dramaticly moved to Kerry. (Kerry numbers have exactly reversed)

Drudgereport and Sean H. says Bush down 2 nationally (popular vote is over) and 1% down in Ohio and Fl. We need both.

The MONEY is the best indicator and the MONEY (on-line futures betting) has moved dramaticly toward Kerry.

Obviously, the hope is Ohio and Florida somehow come back and he wins electorial college even while losing popular vote.

If I lived in FLORIDA or Ohio (I live in NY) I'd be beating down doors.


Conventional Wisdom has always been the electoral college will decide the election. I don't understand why that piece of info would cause any angst any more today than yesterday.

Believe!!!
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cpowkj
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Joined: 22 Aug 2004
Posts: 67
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been watching Drudge all day. Where is this down 2 points nationally?
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RogerRabbit
Master Chief Petty Officer


Joined: 05 Sep 2004
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Location: Oregon

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thune is now reported to be leading Daschle by six points. A Daschle lawyer has been arrested, reportedly, on a reservation. No details yet, at least that I've seen.
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peter
Lieutenant


Joined: 22 Aug 2004
Posts: 214

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cpowkj wrote:
I've been watching Drudge all day. Where is this down 2 points nationally?


Sean said it on radio.

The online betting site is intrade.com ... the money is moving away hour by hour from Bush to Kerry.
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RogerRabbit
Master Chief Petty Officer


Joined: 05 Sep 2004
Posts: 748
Location: Oregon

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, e-mails:

At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point.
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Inatizzy
Former Member


Joined: 28 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Drudge now has a headline that says the winner in SD is Thune. Guess it's just a strong prediction....also Martinez in FL.

Peter, just ignore all that stuff. Bush is ahead. When most of his voters get off work at 5 and head to the polls, it will show whats what.

GWB landslide..........
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RogerRabbit
Master Chief Petty Officer


Joined: 05 Sep 2004
Posts: 748
Location: Oregon

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ignore the exit polls...

The raw numbers trickling out are just that...raw. Exit polling is heavily "scrubbed" at the end of the day to account for turnout in each precinct, to account for pre-existing demographic sensibilities (i.e. samples are re-jiggered for sex, race, income, etc). These raw numbers obviously cannot be scrubbed in this matter. This means that the MOE is so high for Bush and Kerry that they are basically useless. What's more...you don't know what kind of data out there is reliable or not -- it is all rumour and innuendo.
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Steve Z
Rear Admiral


Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 687
Location: West Hartford CT

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear Peter:

Where do you find Sean Hannity saying that Bush is down in the popular vote? Does he have any HARD NUMBERS, as in hundreds of thousands of votes counted? Where would he or anyone else get HARD NUMBERS from this early, before the polls closed? Or are these just meaningless exit polls, like those who predicted Gore would win by 6% in Florida in 2000?

If the bettors have been thrown off by misleading early exit polls, (or Soros buying up Kerry bets?) why don't you go bet on Bush for cheap, and make some money?
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RogerRabbit
Master Chief Petty Officer


Joined: 05 Sep 2004
Posts: 748
Location: Oregon

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

President Bush remains a heavy favorite in on-line betting, so those who are putting their money where their spin is aren't putting much stock in rumors of exit polling.
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ProudDaughterofVet
Commander


Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 340
Location: New York

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Look, the thing that these exit polls show is that early voters..were heavily Kerry voters..NOW, the REPUBLICANS must, and I repeat must march to the polls. I know that this will be close, I see another 2000. Not in the recount effort, but in the closeness in this race. I believe that Bush will take Ohio..seems to be now 50-50 in OHIO..

I know that as a family..always after dinner, my mom and dad would take us to the voting booth with them..so, we have hours left here..It will be fine..I feel it. The Bush Campaign seems quite confident..and look if Martinez (according to those exit polls won) then how can Kerry be ahead? The after dinner crowd ..our crowd will be voting now and in the next few hours. This is about standing up for liberty..for God's sake, I can not believe that this country would allow this. Get your friends out to vote, your family, hell, your fourth cousin twice removed..call them, remind them IT MATTERS..

KEEP THE FAITH MY FRIENDS!!!!!!! After all we have a party to attend tonight, right here!!

PD
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Lily
Lieutenant


Joined: 08 Aug 2004
Posts: 244

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been listening to Sean since his show began and he did not say Bush was down by 2 nationally. Sean had Drudge on his program who rattled off some exit poll numbers with an emphasis that not one vote has been counted yet. Bush supporters do not be fooled go vote no matter what.
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peter
Lieutenant


Joined: 22 Aug 2004
Posts: 214

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zogby site zogby.com just called the election for Kerry in a electorial landside, but shows Bush winning popular vote. Curiously he seems to show Bush ahead in OH and FL but calls the states for Kerry. Weird His site is zogby.com

I have over a 100 posts to this site, I HATE John Kerry and have donated money to swift vets.

I'm only sharing whatever info I find. I would love it to be postive.
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GiveMeFreedom
PO3


Joined: 23 Aug 2004
Posts: 279
Location: Wisconsin

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From the Kerry Spot on National Review:
http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp
MIDDLE CHEESE REPORTS IN! [11/02 05:24 PM]

Here's an update from Middle Cheese:

The "big cheeses" in GOP circles weren't worried by today's nutty exit poll scare. They know the bad, bad history of initial exit polls. In 2000, the first polls showed Bush and Gore even - Bush won by nine points. The 2000 Florida poll showed Gore winning by three, and we all know that ended with a 537 vote Bush win.
Even more glaring, in 2002, the first exit polls showed Wayne Allard down by 10 in the Colorado Senate race. He won by 10.

Catholic vote looks good for the President, particularly in Wisconsin.

Bush is getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to 35 percent in 2000.

And no, exit polls don't include early and absentee voting. Bush leads these nationwide.

There is total confidence that at the end of the night, Bush will win.
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