 |
SwiftVets.com
Service to Country
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Schadow
Vice Admiral
Joined: 30 Sep 2004
Posts: 936
Location: Huntsville, Alabama
|
 Posted: Sun Mar 12, 2006 4:58 am Post subject: Iran Readies Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz |
 |
|
This is a long and sobering article about a multi-faceted Iranian plan to close Harmuz. Sounds like a credible source but who knows?
| Quote: | Iran Readies Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz
Kenneth R. Timmerman, NewsMax.com
Wednesday, March 1, 2006
Iran's Revolutionary Guards are making preparations for a massive assault on U.S. naval forces and international shipping in the Persian Gulf, according to a former Iranian intelligence officer who defected to the West in 2001.
The plans, which include the use of bottom-tethered mines potentially capable of destroying U.S. aircraft carriers, were designed to counter a U.S. land invasion and to close the Strait of Hormuz, the defector said in a phone interview from his home in Europe.
They would also be triggered if the United States or Israel launched a pre-emptive strike on Iran to knock out nuclear and missile facilities.
"The plan is to stop trade," the source said.
Between 15 and 16.5 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz each day, roughly 20 percent of the world's daily oil production, according to the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration.
The source provided NewsMax parts of a more than 30-page contingency plan, which bears the stamp of the Strategic Studies Center of the Iranian Navy, NDAJA. The document appears to have been drafted in September or October of 2005.
The NDAJA document was just one part of a larger strike plan to be coordinated by a single operational headquarters that would integrate Revolutionary Guards missile units, strike aircraft, surface and underwater naval vessels, Chinese-supplied C-801 and C-802 anti-shipping missiles, mines, coastal artillery, as well as chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
The overall plans are being coordinated by the intelligence office of the Ministry of Defense, known as HFADA.
Revolutionary Guards missile units have identified "more than 100 targets, including Saudi oil production and oil export centers," the defector said. "They have more than 45 to 50 Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 missiles ready for shooting" against those targets and against Israel, he added.
The defector, Hamid Reza Zakeri, warned the CIA in July 2001 that Iran was preparing a massive attack on America using Arab terrorists flying airplanes, which he said was planned for Sept. 11, 2001. The CIA dismissed his claims and called him a fabricator.
The source also identified a previously unknown nuclear weapons site last year to this writer, which was independently confirmed by three separate intelligence agencies.
NewsMax showed the defector's documents to two native Persian-speakers who each have more than 20 years of experience analyzing intelligence documents from the Islamic Republic regime. They believed the documents were authentic.
A U.S. military intelligence official, while unable to authenticate the documents without seeing them, recognized the Strategic Studies Center and noted that the individual whose name appears as the author of the plan, Abbas Motaj, was head of the Iranian navy until late 2005.
A former Revolutionary Guards officer, contacted by NewsMax in Europe, immediately recognized the Naval Strategic Studies institute from its Persian-language acronym, NDAJA. He provided independent information on recent deployments of Shahab-3 missiles that coincided with information contained in the NDAJA plan.
The Iranian contingency plan is summarized in an "Order of Battle" map, which schematically lays out Iran's military and strategic assets and how they will be used against U.S. military forces from the Strait of Hormuz up to Busheir.
The map identifies three major areas of operations, called "mass kill zones," where Iranian strategists believe they can decimate a U.S.-led invasion force before it actually enters the Persian Gulf.
The kill zones run from the low-lying coast just to the east of Bandar Abbas, Iran's main port that sits in the bottleneck of the Strait of Hormuz, to the ports of Jask and Shah Bahar on the Indian Ocean, beyond the Strait.
Behind the kill zones are strategic missile launchers labeled as "area of chemical operations," "area of biological warfare operations," and "area where nuclear operations start."
Iran's overall battle management will be handled through C4I and surveillance satellites. It is unclear in the documents shared with NewsMax whether this refers to commercial satellites or satellite intelligence obtained from allies, such as Russia or China. Iran has satellite cooperation programs with both nations.
The map is labeled "the current status of military forces in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, 1384." 1384 is the Iranian year that ends on March 20, 2006.
Iran plans to begin offensive operations by launching successive waves of explosives-packed boats against U.S. warships in the Gulf, piloted by "Ashura" or suicide bombers.
The first wave can draw on more than 1,000 small fast-attack boats operated by the Revolutionary Guards navy, equipped with rocket launchers, heavy machine-guns and possibly Sagger anti-tank missiles.
In recent years, the Iranians have used these small boats to practice "swarming" raids on commercial vessels and U.S. warships patrolling the Persian Gulf.
The White House listed two such attacks in the list of 10 foiled al-Qaida terrorist attacks it released on Feb. 10. The attacks were identified as a "plot by al-Qaida operatives to attack ships in the [Persian] Gulf" in early 2003, and a separate plot to "attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz."
A second wave of suicide attacks would be carried out by "suicide submarines" and semi-submersible boats, before Iran deploys its Russian-built Kilo-class submarines and Chinese-built Huodong missile boats to attack U.S. warships, the source said.
The 114-foot Chinese boats are equipped with advanced radar-guided C-802s, a sea-skimming cruise-missile with a 60-mile range against which many U.S. naval analysts believe there is no effective defense.
When Iran first tested the sea-launched C-802s a decade ago, Vice Admiral Scott Redd, then commander of U.S. naval forces in the Gulf, called them "a new dimension ... of the Iranian threat to shipping."
Admiral Redd was appointed to head the National Counterterrorism Center last year.
Iran's naval strategists believe the U.S. will attempt to land ground forces to the east of Bandar Abbas. Their plans call for extensive use of ground-launched tactical missiles, coastal artillery, as swell as strategic missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia and Israel tipped with chemical, biological and possibly nuclear warheads.
The Iranians also plan to lay huge minefields across the Persian Gulf inside the Strait of Hormuz, effectively trapping ships that manage to cross the Strait before they can enter the Gulf, where they can be destroyed by coastal artillery and land-based "Silkworm" missile batteries.
Today, Iran has sophisticated EM-53 bottom-tethered mines, which it purchased from China in the 1990s. The EM-53 presents a serious threat to major U.S. surface vessels, since its rocket-propelled charge is capable of hitting the hull of its target at speeds in excess of 70 miles per hour. Some analysts believe it can knock out a U.S. aircraft carrier.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff has been warning about Iran's growing naval buildup in the Persian Gulf for over a decade, and in a draft presidential finding submitted to President Clinton in late February 1995, concluded that Iran already had the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
"I think it would be problematic for any navy to face a combination of mines, small boats, anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedoes, coastal artillery, and Silkworms," said retired Navy Commander Joseph Tenaglia, CEO of Tactical Defense Concepts, a maritime security company. "This is a credible threat."
In Tenaglia's view, "the major problem will be the mines. Naval minefields are hard to locate and to sweep," and the United States has few minesweepers. "It's going to be like running the gauntlet getting through there," he said.
When Iran last mined the Gulf, in 1987-1988, several U.S. ships and reflagged Kuwaiti oil tankers were hit, even though the mines they used were similar to those used in the Battle of Gallipoli in 1915, Tenaglia said.
The biggest challenge facing Iran today would be to actually lay the mines without getting caught. "If they are successful in getting mines into the water, it's going to take us months to get them out," Tenaglia said. |
Source-NewsMax
If this stuff is creditable, I imagine the word "preemptive" is floating about the Pentagon.
Schadow
_________________
Capt, 8th U.S. Army, Korea '53 - '54 |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
fortdixlover
Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 12 May 2004
Posts: 1476
|
| Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:52 pm Post subject: Re: Iran Readies Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz |
|
|
| Schadow wrote: | This is a long and sobering article about a multi-faceted Iranian plan to close Harmuz. Sounds like a credible source but who knows?
| Quote: | Iran Readies Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz
Kenneth R. Timmerman, NewsMax.com
Wednesday, March 1, 2006
Iran's Revolutionary Guards are making preparations for a massive assault on U.S. naval forces and international shipping in the Persian Gulf, according to a former Iranian intelligence officer who defected to the West in 2001.
The plans, which include the use of bottom-tethered mines potentially capable of destroying U.S. aircraft carriers, were designed to counter a U.S. land invasion and to close the Strait of Hormuz, the defector said in a phone interview from his home in Europe. |
|
Idiots. I don't think we plan a land invasion.
Those mines won't be stopping our B52's, stealth planes, and our new jet fighters, will they?
-- FDL
_________________
"Millions For Defense, Not One Cent For Tribute" - Thomas Jefferson on paying ransom to Muslim corsairs (pirates). |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Schadow
Vice Admiral
Joined: 30 Sep 2004
Posts: 936
Location: Huntsville, Alabama
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:24 am Post subject: Re: Iran Readies Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz |
|
|
| fortdixlover wrote: | Those mines won't be stopping our B52's, stealth planes, and our new jet fighters, will they?
-- FDL |
There's no question that a US air campaign (including cruise missiles) would be overwhelming. And, even though we have limited mine sweeper capability, we could probably take out the mines as a threat to shipping. However, the numbers of low-tech Iranian PCF-type boats available for swarming around shipping is a bit troubling.
The strait is a narrow funnel through which a huge amount of oil and other transport flows, including our Navy. Just imagine a hundred or so of these gnats circling counter-flow around a carrier at high speed looking for an opening to mount a Cole-type attack. I don't think our Navy ships carry sufficient Phalanx batteries to counter such a non-conventional attack, primitive though it may be. It would be fun for some Navy pilots to strafe them (in daylight, anyway) but the numbers of boats that Iran evidently has available creates a strong chance of one or more of them getting through.
That scenario is going to take some real thought to counter.
Schadow
_________________
Capt, 8th U.S. Army, Korea '53 - '54 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
PhantomSgt
Vice Admiral
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 972
Location: GUAM, USA
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:21 am Post subject: |
|
|
The Iranians have been shopping at the French, Russian (Soviet) and Chinese Arms Supermarkets for quite some time now. Don't underestimate their missile defence systems and electronic countemeasures they have purchased at will from the governments above. Embargo? You must be kidding, there is no embargo.
_________________
Retired AF E-8
Independent that leans right of center. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
I B Squidly
Vice Admiral
Joined: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 879
Location: Cactus Patch
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:36 am Post subject: |
|
|
The Iranis deployed these launchs during the Tanker War when all their US built ships were rusted at the piers. They are almost impossible for R2D2s or 5" radars to pick up. We were given Stingers as a stop gap and the carriers stayed at Gonzo Station, Masirah outside the straits. This scenario would take alot of Stingers....shades of Okinawa! Are there any 'gun' fighter aircraft anymore?
When the Roberts hit a mine they Navy had not a single sweeper and went on a crash building program. Hopefully they're still around.
I'm afraid all this saber rattling is leading to war sooner than later.
_________________
"KILL ALL THE LAWYERS!"
-Wlm Shakespeare |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Anker-Klanker
Admiral
Joined: 04 Sep 2004
Posts: 1033
Location: Richardson, TX
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 8:50 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Now get a good map of the region and look at the geographical relationship of the Straits of Hormuz to the UAE - you know, that place we probably managed to royally PO in the last few weeks, and who previously provided one of the biggest support naval bases outside of the USA ... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Schadow
Vice Admiral
Joined: 30 Sep 2004
Posts: 936
Location: Huntsville, Alabama
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:44 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Anker-Klanker wrote: | | Now get a good map of the region and look at the geographical relationship of the Straits of Hormuz to the UAE - you know, that place we probably managed to royally PO in the last few weeks, and who previously provided one of the biggest support naval bases outside of the USA ... |
Yep, I'm afraid we'll all have to get familiar with this geography.
There are two interesting CIA reports, including maps and geopolitical data. One is for UAE, here:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ae.html
And, one for Oman, whose far northern enclave occupies the actual land tip separating the Persian Gulf and The Gulf of Oman, here:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/mu.html#Issues
Schadow
_________________
Capt, 8th U.S. Army, Korea '53 - '54
Last edited by Schadow on Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:24 am; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Army_(Ret)
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 108
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:12 am Post subject: |
|
|
"low-tech Iranian PCF-type boats available for swarming around shipping is a bit troubling."
Schadow: You just stated the reason the Missouri should be taken out of mothballs. I realize that would be like Quail hunting with a howitzer, but if one of those boats runs into the Missouri's hull, the blast wouldn't even scratch the paint.
I never was a big fan of heavy aluminum.
_________________
Peace is acheived through victory |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Schadow
Vice Admiral
Joined: 30 Sep 2004
Posts: 936
Location: Huntsville, Alabama
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:51 am Post subject: |
|
|
| I B Squidly wrote: | | ..... Are there any 'gun' fighter aircraft anymore? |
I can't think of one offhand. The AC-130U "Spooky" gunship has a lot of firepower, including one 25mm GAU-12 Gatling, one L60 40mm Bofors cannon, and one M102 105mm cannon. (A 105 in an airplane? Good grief.)
Then there's the A10 Warthog with all kinds of hurt on board. They could get to the strait pretty fast from the UAE if that country is willing and the Congress hasn't declared them an full-fledged enemy by then.
Schadow
_________________
Capt, 8th U.S. Army, Korea '53 - '54 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Navy_Navy_Navy
Admin
Joined: 07 May 2004
Posts: 5777
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:09 am Post subject: |
|
|
Hubs was "in the neighborhood" when the USS Samuel B Roberts hit the mine.
We took out two of their oil platforms, a few of their warships and some speedboats.
After that tiny little taste, I really don't think they want the full seven courses.
Our mine-detection capacity is much better than we think it is.
And after the Cole incident, they're not going to get away with anything in the vicinity of a US or friendly ship.
I'm chalking it up to saber-rattling.
_________________
~ Echo Juliet ~
Altering course to starboard - On Fire, Keep Clear
Navy woman, Navy wife, Navy mother |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
baldeagle
PO2
Joined: 27 Oct 2004
Posts: 362
Location: Grand Saline, Texas
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:49 am Post subject: |
|
|
The Iranians just may be stupid ........or crazy.......enough to try this, but if they do it will be mass suicide on their part, especially if they are dumb enough to go nuclear.
Assuming it stays conventional..............
The Navy and Air Force both are under utilised in Iraq, that job falls mostly on the grunts (Army/Marines).
The Navy has about a dozen carriers, 9 0r 10 CVN's and a couple of conventional powered, of which they could muster about half, along with associated task forces w/ each carrier composed of Cruisers, Destroyers, auxilliaries (AO's, AK's etc) plus at least one Attack Sub with each Group. Each Carrier with embarked Air Wing of 80-90 aircraft, including ECM and Hawkeyes, plus all combatant ships, including the Subs, carrying Cruise missiles, as well as ship to ship and defensive missiles and torpedoes.
One Carrier Task Force is an awesome force. Six or seven all in the same area would be capable of unbelievable firepower.
Top that off with the Air Force hitting everything they've got with the F-117's, B-1's, B-2's, B-52's, F-15's F-16's, F35's, and (I believe they have a few operational) F-22 Raptors, plus a few EC-135 command and control birds, and you will see another "new-and-improved" shock and awe like the little crazy man in Tehran can not even imagine.
With the Hawkeyes extending the Carrier's "eyes" out to several hundred miles, those "gunboats" would never get close enough for any kind of USS Cole type of attack and doubtfully close enough to launch any type of missile.
I'm not any kind of expert on the USA "Order of Battle", just a retired Navy lifer, but, those folks in Tehran, listening to a bunch of Ayatollahs bluff and bluster, better re-assass their capabilities before initiating a all-out war with the Israelis and the US.
All that said, if they get a couple of nukes and are fools enough to throw them toward Israel, Iran will almost instantly become a glass lined hole in the desert, considering that Israel already has a considerable # of Nukes which they will not hesitate to use if attacked by nukes.
JMHO, of course.
ETA: Anyways, I suspect that there is already an Oplan (or 2) stashed away in some Generals or Admirals safe in the big 5 sided puzzle palace , which pretty well covers every thing Iran can muster.
_________________
"In a word, I want an American character, that the powers of Europe may be convinced we act for ourselves and not for others; this, in my judgment, is the only way to be respected abroad and happy at home." --George Washington |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
GenrXr
Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 05 Aug 2004
Posts: 1720
Location: Houston
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 4:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Schadow wrote: | | I B Squidly wrote: | | ..... Are there any 'gun' fighter aircraft anymore? |
I can't think of one offhand. The AC-130U "Spooky" gunship has a lot of firepower, including one 25mm GAU-12 Gatling, one L60 40mm Bofors cannon, and one M102 105mm cannon. (A 105 in an airplane? Good grief.)
Then there's the A10 Warthog with all kinds of hurt on board. They could get to the strait pretty fast from the UAE if that country is willing and the Congress hasn't declared them an full-fledged enemy by then.
Schadow |
Some of the AC-130 are equipped with laser beams now and have been very effective in the Iraq insurgency. The baddies know we have flying platforms which can at the speed of light vaporize them and this scares the hell out of them as well as kill them instantly. Why this new weapon is not discussed? Just another mistake in the war we fight. Our technology should be highlighted and shown to everyone as opposed to sold whole sell by corrupt politicians such as Clinton. Wield and hold high our mighty sword!
_________________
"An activist is the person who cleans up the water, not the one claiming its dirty."
"All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to stand by and do nothing." Edmund Burke (1729-1797), Founder of Conservative Philosophy |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
I B Squidly
Vice Admiral
Joined: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 879
Location: Cactus Patch
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:03 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Navyx3,
One ironic aspect of using those Irani oil platforms for target practise was having USS Kidd in company. She and her 5 sisters had been built for the Shah and never delivered.
The Missouri and her Battleship Battle Group arrived at the Gulf in '87. Where the carriers couldn't enter the Straits it was felt the indestructible Mighty Mo' would blast her way through anything. We had to get back to Alava Pier so I never learned if she got to strut her stuff. She's now a museum but I understand the Iowa is still looking for a home.
_________________
"KILL ALL THE LAWYERS!"
-Wlm Shakespeare |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
