SwiftVets.com

[MadIvan]

There are many conservative people, just the Conservative Party as a political organisation, is a mess. And most conservative people don't live in large cities like London.

I don't relish the idea of Prime Minister Blair (who has been good in many ways) having to deal with the EU and John Kerry. According to the Scotsman newspaper, Blair has kept his distance from Kerry and with good reason.

Regards, Ivan
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[Bob Chamberlain]

This may sound funny (odd), but I think the main factor that is driving the French is that, above all, they want to matter. The French have never come to accept the fact that they really aren't all that important any more on the international scene. There is a very real resentment that English has supplanted French as the "international" language for diplomacy and trade. I think that if "President" Kerry were to play up to the French pride, he might actually get them to commit tropps - for a while - until the first kidnapping and beheading. But the French will always be looking out for the interests of the French (which is certainly their right) and they will never do anything that might look as if they were pawns of the Americans.

The German question is more complex. I lived in Germany for 16 years (1980 through 1996) and I came to know the German people pretty well. The German people have a very strong respect for America and an appreciation of what the Americans (and English) did for them after WWII. There was such a sharp contrast between conditions in the Western Zone of Occupation (US, Britain and France) compared to the Eastern Zone (USSR), that the West Germans had absolutely no doubt as to which side their bread was buttered on.

For decades, the three main political parties in Germany were the CDU/CSU (conservative), the SPD (socialist) and the FDP (liberal). The FDP formed coalitions alternately with the SPD and the CDU/CSU to form the ruling majority. Their "prime ministert" (Bundeskanzler) always came from either the SPD or the CDU/CSU. For most of the years I was in Germany, the Bundeskanzer was Helmut Kohl of the CDU/CSU. He was a good friend of the US and there were strong relations between the two countries. But the Germans are VERY sensitive (as are the Japanese) about sending troops into foreign countries. Too many people, at home and abroad, have too many bad memories about the last time that happened.

Over time, the FDP became weaker and the Gruenen (the Greens - environmentalists and more radical left wingers) became stronger. After the Wall fell and Germany was reunited, the former communist party in the East reconstituted itself as the PDS. Before long, the PDS and the Gruenen got together in a coalition they called "Buendnis 90" (much like the CDU/CSU, except very left wing) and this party became the third most powerful party in Germany. Then in the 1998 elections, the SPD and Buendis 90 polled strongly enough that they became the ruling majority and Gerhard Schroeder, the leader of the SPD, became Bundeskanzler.

But this hasn't really caused any shift in popular support or feeling for America. If you were to poll the German people and ask them if they support what America is doing in Iraq, I think you would probably find a majority of maybe 70/30 in favor. The West Germans clearly remember when America did the same thing for them 60 years ago. But the German people are not any more ready today than they were 15 years ago to send troops overseas. So this is not an issue that might change they way they vote in internal politics.

So, Germany now has a left-liberal government and a left-liberal media (as we do), so things aren't going to change as far as military (or political) support for America is concerned. And John Kerry can whistle all he wants. He is not going to change that attitude any more than President Bush can.