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IpsoFacto
Seaman
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 163
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 Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 2:51 am Post subject: Kerry is no Reagan!! |
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Bad news for Kerry from the latest results from Gallup:
An excerpt of their latest article analyzing the results from their latest polls say:
| Quote: | In other words, the candidate who is ahead on Labor Day usually wins the election, regardless of changes in the margins over the last two months of the campaign.
More specifically to this year's situation, of the six elections since 1936 in which the gap between the candidates diminished by seven points or more, only two have led to a victory by the candidate who was behind on Labor Day: 1948 and 1980.
Bottom Line
Only 2 out of the 17 elections exhibit all of the developments Kerry would need if he is to win this year (i.e., more than a 7-point gap change and a lead change):
1980, with Reagan's 14-point "gap change" and eventual victory after Carter had been ahead on Labor Day
1948, with Truman's 13-point "gap change" and eventual victory after Dewey had been ahead.
The four other races in which the lead narrowed significantly for the candidate ahead on Labor Day (1996, 1976, 1968, and 1964) ultimately did not experience a lead change; the candidate ahead on Labor Day won, albeit by smaller margins than the Labor Day estimate would have predicted. However, as noted, the final outcomes in 1976 and 1968 were close to a lead change, although the Labor Day leader eventually won.
There are exactly 55 days to go before the election on Nov. 2. Obviously, much can change between now and then. Indeed, hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent by both campaigns over the next two months in an attempt to change people's minds about the election. The news media will give extraordinary coverage to the candidates' every utterance. Three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate are planned at this point, and they could have a major effect on voter sentiment. Plus, Kerry is shaking up his campaign staff and we can expect some new and different strategies from his side of the ledger that could affect the race. |
See the whole article here... http://gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=12970
BELIEVE ME, KERRY IS NEITHER REAGAN NOR TRUMAN!
Mr. Kerry. You are toasted!! 
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SteamSnipe
Seaman Apprentice
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 75
Location: Great Lakes, Il
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 2:58 am Post subject: Kerry no Reagan: you are correct Sir |
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| I remember the Carter-Reagan race, and how everyone thought Reagan was a dangerous maniac, or at least that's how Carter protrayed him, and Reagan just blew him away in the debates. That was the turning point IMHO. Kerry will be even worse after the debates, as he tries to articulate his scatterbrained flip-flop postions on the issues. Hopefully, they will also ask about military service, which would completely bury him |
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The Balloon Artist
PO3
Joined: 25 Aug 2004
Posts: 262
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:10 am Post subject: |
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Kerry no Reagan? He's not even a Dukakis.
Dukakis had the frame of mind not to say what he would do. But whatever he did say remained constant. Hats off to McGovern and Mondale for the same.
_________________
What about John Kerry's four months in Vietnam qualify him to be president?
Al Gore was there for five. |
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stop kerry
Seaman Apprentice
Joined: 07 May 2004
Posts: 96
Location: Columbus Ohio
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:21 am Post subject: |
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Why compare him to Reagan??? His one and ONLY vision is that he is John F. kennedy reborn  |
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IpsoFacto
Seaman
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 163
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:32 am Post subject: |
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Im sorry, i am sorry 
I have sinned by comparing Kerry to Reagan. But wait, it was not me, it was the context of Gallup's article.
So, i rephrase...
Kerry is not even Dukakis. |
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cipher
Vice Admiral
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 902
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:36 am Post subject: |
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Kerry's no McGovern, either.
At least McGovern deserved his military decorations.
And McGovern took Massachusetts. Kerry may not.
_________________
USMC 69-72, 7th Comm, 3rd MarDiv, FMFPAC
US Army 75-79, 97th Sig, SHAPE, NATO
Arkansas National Guard 79
Defense contractor for US Navy, SSPO, SP-20, SP-24, OP-12 84-92 |
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The Balloon Artist
PO3
Joined: 25 Aug 2004
Posts: 262
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:43 am Post subject: |
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| cipher wrote: | Kerry's no McGovern, either.
At least McGovern deserved his military decorations.
And McGovern took Massachusetts. Kerry may not. |
I was just a kid whern McGovern ran but I grew to have alot of respect for him as a man.
Carry Massachusettes he did. Do you know who was heading up jhis campaign there?
Not a Trick question.
With Mass having a Republican Governor it is not an impossibility that he will not carry the state given that Mit gave Kennedy a run for it some years ago.
_________________
What about John Kerry's four months in Vietnam qualify him to be president?
Al Gore was there for five. |
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IpsoFacto
Seaman
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 163
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 am Post subject: |
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Call me nuts, but i think Bush will carry all the states except:
New York
Hawai
Maryland
Delaware
California
Vermont
and Massachussets
I think he will lose everywhere else. |
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Beatrice1000
Resource Specialist
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 1179
Location: Minneapolis, MN
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:05 am Post subject: |
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| cipher wrote: | | Kerry's no McGovern, either. |
Geez, I hate to do this but ... I've been reading some of the declassified FBI files and from what I see, McGovern is closer to Kerry than you'd think -- here's a snip from a 1971 article, along with a current article about Kerry/McGovern:
FBI (unclassified files): from a newspaper clipping re: 4/71 - protests/Kerry Senate testimony
“At the Foreign Relations Committee hearing, the veterans gave a standing ovation to McGovern when he accused all American forces in Indochina of war crimes. Acknowledging the cheers, McGovern, the only declared presidential candidate for 1972, said, “I have never been prouder of a group of Americans than I am of these combat veterans here.”
Washington Times 3/10/04 article, compares Kerry/McGovern.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20040310-123817-7751r.htm |
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bach04
Lieutenant
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 212
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| Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:13 am Post subject: |
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IMO Dukakis is ten times better than Kerry will ever be. Even though I don't agree with the liberal policies of Dukakis, I still give him alot of credit for sticking behind his principles and not flip flopping based on what the public wants to hear. He was a true liberal from Massachusetts, but he didn't have to hide that from others. Same with (gulp) Jimmy Carter - even though he was the worst pacifist of them all, he still held onto those convictions and principles that made him a liberal dove. On the other hand, we have Johnny boy whose principles are clearly compromised, who has absolutely no standard platform to run on, who just makes himself and the DNC look like complete idiots day in and day out. Sometimes I yearn for the good ol' days of Mr. Dukakis.  |
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