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A New Tet Offensive?

 
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Hammer2
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:32 pm    Post subject: A New Tet Offensive? Reply with quote

Today while I was watching the news from Iraq, about the sudden upsurge of bombings and attacks in the last couple of days, it struck me that this may be the equivalent of the 1968 Tet offensive.

Tet, for those who don't know, was a political offensive by the Communists that had one goal in mind - to make it appear that the Communist forces were undiminished by 2 years of American attacks and that they could still strike in large numbers at will. They were successful in creating this image in the American media and thus were able to shape American public opinion. The Tet offensive was the turning point in the war and led directly to the American withdrawl.

The Communists risked everything on this gamble. They had planned for 2 years for Tet. They built up men and material for the offensive that they desperately needed elsewhere and could ill afford to waste. They knew that they had no military objective in this offensive. They knew that most of their men would be killed and their material destroyed. They knew that the VC insurgency would be crushed. They did it anyway!
By all historical accounts, the Viet Cong, as an effective fighting force, were wiped out in South Vietnam after Tet. Nearly all engagements from that point forward were with regular NVA forces.

Now, let's look at Iraq.

Remember the DC snipers? Two guys with a rifle were able to paralyze a huge area. A couple of thousand diehards with military weapons can do a lot more.
These guys are smart, they know our political scene, and they know our history. If they can use the media to present an image of Iraq as out of control and getting worse, they think they can discredit Bush's policy and throw the election to Kerry. They know the history of Democratic presidents and know that if Kerry wins, an American withdrawl will soon follow.
In line with this objective they are launching the equivalent of a Tet offensive. Their goal, between now and Nov 2, is to launch as many bombings, ambushes, kidnappings, and assassinations as they possibly can. They will be seen operating in large groups. They will attempt to portray their forces as strong and unstoppable. Their goal is to fill our news with these images. The cost to them is unimportant, if they succeed, they can rebuild their power later. They are taking the same gamble the Communists did, expecting the same results.

They know the stakes, DO WE?

If Kerry wins, America will abandon Iraq just like it did Vietnam. Iraq will become a hotbed of international terrorism and we will pay a high price in American lives here at home. The Middle East will remain a hotbed of terrorism for years to come. A new generation of Leftists will dominate our political scene. A new litany of lies and distorted history will be created.

If Bush wins we won't have an easy time of it, but in 4 years we will have a peaceful Iraq, a neutered Syria, and possibly a free Iran. The veterans of Vietnam and Iraq will be vindicated. Terrorism will fade away into history. This is a world worth fighting for!

So what do we do?

What we need to do is remember the lessons of Tet, stand with our president and work for his re-election. Spread the word, tell your friends and family, remind them of the lessons from Tet. Stand firm, believe in the rightness of our effort, and do not fear. Let the enemy expend himself in this offensive, and he will hasten his own destruction.
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"An armed society is a polite society" - Thomas Jefferson
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Last edited by Hammer2 on Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:34 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Hammer2
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just heard Kerry on the news saying that Iraq is out of control. That whole areas are under the control of Jihadis & Terrorists that were not before. That Iraq is getting worse, not better.

Kinda proves my point, dosen't it?

Sounds like they need each other.
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"An armed society is a polite society" - Thomas Jefferson
"The beauty of the Second Amendment is that it won't be needed until someone tries to take it away." -- Thomas Jefferson
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noc
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey Hammer,

I would love to see this in editorial pages. Have you sent this out yet?

There is a good media list in the Research area for email too.
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Hammer2
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

noc wrote:
Hey Hammer,

I would love to see this in editorial pages. Have you sent this out yet?

There is a good media list in the Research area for email too.


Noc, I just did! Thanks for the suggestion.
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"An armed society is a polite society" - Thomas Jefferson
"The beauty of the Second Amendment is that it won't be needed until someone tries to take it away." -- Thomas Jefferson
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neverforget
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Excellent post, Hammer2.
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Arty Guy
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The thought has also occurred to me, as I am sure it has to many many others, including people in the administration, that we may see some kind of attempted "tet" offensive. Since I have a son working for one of the engineering firms over there, I hope this does not happen, but I think it is likely. I think the Bush people are taking the best position that they can on this, and likely attacks in the US; namely that this is to be expected and does not change anything. It will be very important how our trustworthy, unbiased, reliable, even handed, wise, and honest MSM handle these events if they occur.
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joeshero
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Expect more bloody attacks in Iraq as the election in the US is getting closer. Today's attack I think it's just a prelude to a more horrendous ones in the coming days. The terrorists want to create the "Madrid effect" in the US. But to launch a similar attack in the US will be backfired against their plan. I do think that the US must conduct an 'October operation" in Iraq to prevent this from happening. The participation of Iraqi people must be increased.
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rb325th
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I posted about this a couple days ago. There are plans or at least talk amongst the terrorist of pursuing an offensive in the nextcouple months. Their desire as stated above is to create an atmosphere of doom and gloom in Iraq in order to influence the election. I have been told they even have flyers out about doing this to insure the election of Kerry. Why? Because it is their belief based on Kerrys comments that we will cut and run if he wins. (Trying to get one of those mailed to me, hopefully it will happen before long.)
Of course the DoD is not publicising this, nor is the MSM. Both for obvious reasons. The MSM wouldn't dare link Kerry and the increase in attacks ( he just does not understand how much his rhetoric effects Operations Overseas), and the DoD is not likely to make that little tidbit public, can you only imagine the cries of foul from the Kerryites?
Keep the Troops in your Prayers folks, it is going to get hot over there. It is not unlikely it will happen, it is already starting, our Troops have been aggresive in their posture and are ready for anything that comes at them.
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MikeM
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was with ya up until ya said this:

"If Bush wins we won't have an easy time of it, but in 4 years we will have a peaceful Iraq, a neutered Syria, and possibly a free Iran. The veterans of Vietnam and Iraq will be vindicated. Terrorism will fade away into history. "

I don't think you can state this with any degree of certainty. And if you do get this published, that particular line of reasoning will, with good reason, get ripped to shreds.

Other than that I believe that thier strategy is similiar to what you described.
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Chuck Z Ombie AC2000
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

After the elction if Bush wins i think the gloves will come off and we will start really hammering these strongholds. We certainly have the might to level every city in Iraq to powder . Its only a matter of how far we are willing to go.
I think W will go quite far to stop these attacks.
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azpatriot
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chuck Z Ombie AC2000 wrote:
After the elction if Bush wins i think the gloves will come off and we will start really hammering these strongholds. We certainly have the might to level every city in Iraq to powder . Its only a matter of how far we are willing to go.
I think W will go quite far to stop these attacks.


Yes and from certain hint's if you listen to the whitehouse you kind of get the fealing Iran might just be next. Interesting that the IAEA won't be finished investigating Iran untill November.
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flagreen
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hope you're right about crushing the insurgents after the election. I was PO'd that our magnificient Marines were not allowed to finish the job in Fallujah earlier this year when they had the opportunity.
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Hammer2
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flagreen wrote:
I hope you're right about crushing the insurgents after the election. I was PO'd that our magnificient Marines were not allowed to finish the job in Fallujah earlier this year when they had the opportunity.


Just a thought, If we had gone into Fallujah and locked the place down, what do you think would have happened? My guess is the bad guys would have melted into the background and become very hard to smoke out. Not to mention all the bad press it would have generated. These guys are pro's, not a ragtag bunch like Al Sadr's militia.
Now consider this - we cordon off the city, let them operate openly, let them think they're in charge - they let their guard down. The Iraqi Govt. sends in their best intel teams. The Iraqis ID the bad guys, track their movements, infiltrate their circles, find their safe houses and weapons caches and pass the intel to us. We then use aircraft & precision guided munitions to take them out.
Not as satisfying as the John Wayne approach, but very effective.
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"An armed society is a polite society" - Thomas Jefferson
"The beauty of the Second Amendment is that it won't be needed until someone tries to take it away." -- Thomas Jefferson
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