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greenvale
Seaman Apprentice
Joined: 25 Aug 2004
Posts: 86
Location: daughter, wife, mother, aunt of vets
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 Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 4:30 am Post subject: Swift Boat Backlash? |
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Just surfed onto Zogby.com..he does polls and has been pretty accurate..supposed to be one of the best. He sells his newsletter and at the top of the Sept 2004 issue:
The 2004 Presidential Election: Swift Boat Backlash
Since I would rather give a donation to SBVT and I don't have the money to pay for his newsletter...I wonder what the article is all about. Any ideas?
http://www.zogby.com/realamerica/index.cfm
God Bless America,
Greenvale |
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RMalloy
PO3
Joined: 23 Aug 2004
Posts: 280
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:19 am Post subject: |
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I've never been polled by Zogby, Gallup, or Pew in my life.
Has anyone else? |
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LewWaters
Admin
Joined: 18 May 2004
Posts: 4042
Location: Washington State
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:23 am Post subject: |
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If you of a mind to, you can register to be polled by Zogby here;
http://www.zogby.com/
On a fairly regular basis, I receive an email poll from them and always speak my mind. It's free and entirely voluntary.
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Clark County Conservative |
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RMalloy
PO3
Joined: 23 Aug 2004
Posts: 280
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:31 am Post subject: |
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Thanks for the info Lew, was easy to sign up. Now I can say I have
been in a Zogby Poll. |
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vietnamvet173
Seaman Apprentice
Joined: 03 Aug 2004
Posts: 95
Location: California
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 6:24 am Post subject: Re: Swift Boat Backlash? |
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| greenvale wrote: | Just surfed onto Zogby.com..he does polls and has been pretty accurate..supposed to be one of the best. He sells his newsletter and at the top of the Sept 2004 issue:
The 2004 Presidential Election: Swift Boat Backlash
Since I would rather give a donation to SBVT and I don't have the money to pay for his newsletter...I wonder what the article is all about. Any ideas?
http://www.zogby.com/realamerica/index.cfm
God Bless America,
Greenvale |
I wouldn't take it seriously. Zogby is a liberal and doesn't hide it. When the elites play games they often will pose a question in order to put an idea in the public mind. Open speculation on a “Swiftboat Backlash” changes the subject as well as creates Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD). Intellectuals play these games all the time
More people will vote for Bush based on “Unfit for Command” and the SBVT ads then will vote for Kerry due to some kind of backlash. It won't even be close. |
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Chuck54
PO1
Joined: 14 Aug 2004
Posts: 466
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 6:31 am Post subject: Re: Swift Boat Backlash? |
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| vietnamvet173 wrote: | | greenvale wrote: | Just surfed onto Zogby.com..he does polls and has been pretty accurate..supposed to be one of the best. He sells his newsletter and at the top of the Sept 2004 issue:
The 2004 Presidential Election: Swift Boat Backlash
Since I would rather give a donation to SBVT and I don't have the money to pay for his newsletter...I wonder what the article is all about. Any ideas?
http://www.zogby.com/realamerica/index.cfm
God Bless America,
Greenvale |
I wouldn't take it seriously. Zogby is a liberal and doesn't hide it. When the elites play games they often will pose a question in order to put an idea in the public mind. Open speculation on a “Swiftboat Backlash” changes the subject as well as creates Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD). Intellectuals play these games all the time
More people will vote for Bush based on “Unfit for Command” and the SBVT ads then will vote for Kerry due to some kind of backlash. It won't even be close. |
Yup, Zogby is playing a game. There is no backlash, its just a fantasy from the deparate left wing to cling to some hope that somehow, someway, bush will lose in november. Zogby's polls are useless.
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"And no pair has been more wrong, more loudly, more often, than the two Senators from Massachusetts, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry"
Zell Miller |
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7rrfs
Seaman Apprentice
Joined: 21 Aug 2004
Posts: 99
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 6:43 am Post subject: |
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if you want a true and accurate poll - go to the odds makers. they have no bias, no political agenda, no motivation except the money. and they are almost always dead on accurate in elections. especially close ones.
tradesports.com has Bush currently at 69 to 31 over Kerry (ask)
before the first swiftvet ad it was Bush 49 - Kerry 51
heh
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"I served admirably in Vietnam" John Kerry
"Yes, I committed atrocities in Vietnam" John Kerry |
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vietnamvet173
Seaman Apprentice
Joined: 03 Aug 2004
Posts: 95
Location: California
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 6:45 am Post subject: |
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| 7rrfs wrote: | if you want a true and accurate poll - go to the odds makers. they have no bias, no political agenda, no motivation except the money. and they are almost always dead on accurate in elections. especially close ones.
tradesports.com has Bush currently at 69 to 31 over Kerry (ask)
before the first swiftvet ad it was Bush 49 - Kerry 51
heh |
LOL!!! You are right. This is a case where money makes someone honest. Money is not always the root of evil. (: |
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srmorton
PO2
Joined: 07 Aug 2004
Posts: 383
Location: Jacksonville, NC
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:27 pm Post subject: |
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Zogby used to be Rush's favorite pollster because his was the
closest to the outcome of the 2000 election. He had Gore
closing in the last couple of days. I really think that was an
accident, because his polls always show GWB in the worst
possible light. (Back in the spring, he said that the race was
"John Kerry's to lose".)
Whenever anyone talks about the 2000 election, they never
mention that the election was called for Gore at least 10 minutes
before the polls were set to close in the Florida panhandle. As is
usually the case, those in line when the polls closed would have
been allowed to vote. Witnesses said that people in their cars
turned around and went home. They also said that those in line
did not bother to wait around to vote. Since this is one of the most
Republican areas of Florida, that little error probably cost Bush
thousands of votes. Many of the final totals in western states were
also affected because people who might have voted for Bush did
not even bother to go vote. It's possible that he could have won
one or two of those states, especially Arizona. There were also
many absentee ballots in CA that were not counted because Gore's
winning margin was high enough that they would not have changed
the outcome. (This from the Democrats who want "every vote to
count".) This long story is to say that had the media behaved
responsibly in the first placed, the Florida recount would have
never taken place and Gore would not have won the popular vote.
It was the peculiar circumstances of the 2000 election that made
Zogby's poll look so good.
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Susan R. Morton |
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Scott
Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy
Joined: 24 May 2004
Posts: 1603
Location: Massachusetts
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 11:11 pm Post subject: |
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| srmorton wrote: | Whenever anyone talks about the 2000 election, they never
mention that the election was called for Gore at least 10 minutes
before the polls were set to close in the Florida panhandle. As is
usually the case, those in line when the polls closed would have
been allowed to vote. Witnesses said that people in their cars
turned around and went home. They also said that those in line
did not bother to wait around to vote. Since this is one of the most
Republican areas of Florida, that little error probably cost Bush
thousands of votes. |
The media called the Florida vote at 8:00 PM EST - one full hour before the polls closed in the Florida panhandle (which is in the Central Time Zone).
(Best explanation I've read of this is in Weapons of Mass Distortion by Brent Bozell.)
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Bye bye, Boston Straggler! |
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Tom Poole
Vice Admiral
Joined: 07 Aug 2004
Posts: 914
Location: America
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 11:15 pm Post subject: |
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Regardless of the media bias and the consequent loss of thousands of GOP votes, the recount by a number of left wing media indicated the right guy won anyway.
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'58 Airedale HMR(L)-261 VMO-2 |
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old vet
Seaman Recruit
Joined: 19 Sep 2004
Posts: 1
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 11:48 pm Post subject: |
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First post with a couple of observations.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
This is a quote from their site about different pollsters and their techniques.
| Quote: | | A reader pointed out another block of voters who are missed in telephone polls: people using Internet telephone companies such as Vonage. Early adopters of new technologies like VoIP (Voice over IP) are typically highly skilled urban professionals with college degrees working in modern industries. This is prime Kerry territory. Their numbers are still small, but here is another example of voters who are predominantly pro Kerry being undersampled by the telephone polls. As a compensation, they are likely to be oversampled in Zogby's interactive polls. In any event, this raises yet another methodological issue. |
Here is part of Zogby for September. However, this seems a few weeks out of date.
| Quote: | The controversial attack ads by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth have dealt Sen. John Kerry’s presidential bid a big hit, and President George W. Bush owes the Swift Boat Veterans credit for much of his recent surge, or so goes the Conventional Wisdom. But is that really true?
The current popular narrative in this presidential election has Mr. Kerry falling behind in the race for the White House because of the recent attacks. In the past couple of weeks the newspapers and pundits have been criticizing Mr. Kerry’s campaign team for failing to respond to the charges in a timely fashion. Now during the week after the Republican Convention, President Bush’s campaign should be preparing for a backlash.
Media coverage turned a small ad by the Swift Boat Veterans into a huge story. Half (50%) of the electorate has seen the Swift Boat ads, while another two in five (40%) have heard about the ads. They have also clearly reached their intended target. More than half (52%) of independents have seen the ads, a higher percentage than either major party.
The bad news for Mr. Bush is that the Law of Unintended Consequences seems to be taking hold. While 13% of the electorate has moved away from Mr. Kerry because of the ads, 23% has moved away from Mr. Bush because of the ads. And while one-fifth of the electorate believes the Swift Boat Veterans’ side of the story, fully half (50%) believe the story of Mr. Kerry and his fellow crewmates.
Mr. Bush’s campaign may be hurt on two fronts by these ads, first from the independent swing vote, and second by the Democratic base. One in five (20%) independent voters have moved away from Mr. Bush in response to the ads, while only 13% have moved away from Mr. Kerry. Independents also remain unconvinced of the charges—while 16% believe the Swift Boat Veterans, nearly half (49%) believe Mr. Kerry’s side of the story.
This ad campaign may have also impacted voter intensity in a way the Swift Boat Veterans did not intend. The ads seem to have shored up Mr. Kerry’s base, and energized core Democrat voters to work harder to elect Mr. Kerry. More than two in five (44%) Democrats and half (50%) of Kerry/Edwards voters are now less likely to vote for Mr. Bush or more likely to vote for Mr. Kerry because of the Swift Boat ads. In contrast, just one in five (22%) Republicans and one-quarter (25%) of Bush/Cheney voters are more likely to vote for Mr. Bush or less likely to vote for Mr. Kerry.
This may largely be due to the limited effectiveness these ads had in convincing even Republicans of the Swift Boat Veterans’ tales. Nearly half (45%) of both Republicans and Bush/Cheney voters believed the story of the Swift Boat Veterans over that of Mr. Kerry, while on the other side, four in five (80%) Democrats and nearly nine in ten (88%) Kerry/Edwards voters believed Mr. Kerry’s side of the story.
These most recent numbers suggest Mr. Bush’s rise in the polls may have been more a result of a better presence in the media during the month of August. They also suggest that any gains that Mr. Bush may have made from these ads has peaked and has the potential to do him harm by turning off independents and energizing the Democratic base. |
It seems from the first site that the methodology is online users which may trend toward librals.
I also think a quick FAQ sheet answering all the basic facts where Kerry himself has flip-flopped on the medals and stories would be just great. We all know that a liar always trips himself up and his own book does not jibe with the facts in many of the accounts that are now showing up with action reports.
Some work needs to be done to use his own words against him on these medals, etc.
I have a split in my extended family. My wife and I agree. No problem there. One son and wife were brain washed in a California university and see conspiracies every where. They do not like Bush but will vote for Kerry but they do not think he is very great either!
My sister and husband will vote for Bush but heard many negative stories about the Swifties. She is reading the Book and now is changing her mind!
The other sister will vote like my Mother and they only read and watch MSM. They think Bush would like to be saluted like Hitler. I have learned after all these years now to argue politics with your mother. Ain't worth it.
I have 3 "Unfit" books and handing them out whenever someone is willing to read.
This book has made me the most active campaigner in decades! |
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greenvale
Seaman Apprentice
Joined: 25 Aug 2004
Posts: 86
Location: daughter, wife, mother, aunt of vets
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| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2004 11:59 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for letting us see what Zogby was talking about. I still believe the truth will come out in the end and the MSM will have egg on it's face once again. I know in my heart that the SBVT have had a major impact. If not for them the "War Hero" .."Saint"..."Savior"..aka.. Kerry would be known by the fake personality that he wants us to see. Thank God for the Swifties..
God Bless America,
Greenvale |
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Navyfam
Seaman Recruit
Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Posts: 27
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| Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2004 12:01 am Post subject: |
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I think it's very important to remember that Swift Vets are not acting in a vacuum. The MSM can harp on whether or not there is a backlash towards the Swift Vets, but KERRY and his record, and his flip flops and his patent dishonesty are the main reasons Swift Vets has been so successful. I love this site and have directed many people to it.
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Sailors in family WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, 1st gulf war and many peacetime. |
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sevry
Commander
Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 326
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| Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2004 12:19 am Post subject: Re: Swift Boat Backlash? |
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| greenvale wrote: | | Just surfed onto Zogby.com..he does polls and has been pretty accurate |
No - you might be thinking of PEW, or Gallup on a good day. Me, I'm not convinced by polling, itself, as a trade. But Zogby? No one believes Zogby. |
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