SwiftVets.com

[F. Rottles]

Here's a series of questions that have come up. Please don't throw any rotten eggs my way. ;-)

In response to the Christmas in Cambodia story, the following points are raised to take attention away from the specifics in Kerry's various versions and to reframe the discussion back to Kerry's bonafides as a combat veteran whose buddies endorse him for president:

1. O'Neill's book overstates by arguing a negative. That is, O'Neill claimed that Kerry had not been in Cambodia -- at any time during the Vietnam war. How can that be proved -- isn't it possibly, even remotely? How can O'Neill account for all of Kerry's time there?

(10 additional questions/observations deleted by Admin)
--

I have some possible answers. But this post is pretty long already.

Admin note: That's WAS pretty long

I'll come back with some bullet answers that have been used in forums by others and by myself.

Admin note: I would suggest that you argue your points and spare us cut and paste retorts.

[Me#1You#10]

I have split your post into it's own topic and expect that you'll be receiving more than adequate responses to your queries. However, whether intentional or not, posting a laundry list of observations leads to chaos in a thread and I'm deleting all but your first question.

I'll forward the remainder of your 10 observations to you in a PM for your personal reference which you may wish to post after your first question is addressed, assuming, of course, that you're here to discuss and not to disrupt. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and see how it goes.

[F. Rottles]

Yeh, I did say I thought it was a long post. I'm not trying to disrupt but I do think there are many questions used by Kerry defenders that distract from the various versions of his story.

Admin note: Devil's advocacy is a worthwhile exercise. Have at it...but let's try to keep this organized.

As for the first question which boils down to: "Anything is possible".

1. Except for Kerry's word, there's no other evidence that he had ever been in Cambodia. But his chain of command flatly state that he was never sent on a mission across the border. And they would have known about any and all insertion missions.

2. Swift boats were not built for clandestine missions. The crews were not equipped and trained for that either. The engines of a Swift boat were very loud and could be heard from miles away. And there were faster, quieter, smaller boats available for such missions. The SEALs had one type of boat built to their specifications: fast and well armoured.

3. Swift boats dominated on the major routes because those rivers and canals were wide and fairly deep. But such routes that crossed the border were blocked by a variety of measures such as physical barriers, patrol boats (ours and Cambodian), as well as electronic sensors. If Kerry had passed one of this points on the border, he would have drawn a lot of attention and there'd be something on the record that the men in his chain of command would recall.

4. The terrain and climate made if very difficult (and highly dangerous), if not impossible, for 50-foot long Swift boats to traverse the many minor streams and canals which were shallow and narrow. A Swift boat needed about 4 feet of depth for its two screw propellors; and about 10-15 feet of width for making fast 3-point turns. The border area around the Mekong Delta gets inundated during the rainy season -- which peaks in October -- but waterlevels drop very low during the dry season -- which starts in November and goes till July. Kerry was on the PCF-94 in Feb-Mar 1969 at the peak of the dry season. Even some major routes, like the Rach Giang Thanh river along the most westerly part of the border would have been tough to navigate in a Swift Boat at that time. Tidal conditions would have also made it difficult to count on speedy exits in low water. Conditions were more dry and extreme north of Sa Dec. The major routes were navigable but those were blocked.

I should add: "Even some major routes, like the Rach Giang Thanh river along the most westerly part of the border would have been tough to navigate in a Swift Boat at that time."

That is -- the water level of the upper reaches of the Rach Giang Thanh river would have been pretty low in Feb-March when Kerry was on the PCF-94. The river could still be traversed, of course, closer to the sea -- by Ha Tien. This is the river that Kerry mentions on his laste mission as described in his journal. It is bound by swamp and a variety of small streams flow into it from the Cambodian side.

Although Navy intel knew there were plenty of crossing points for Viet Cong infiltration along this part of the border, the Swifties were effective in disrupting the enemy's communications, supplies, and reinforcements in the dry season and in the rainy season also.


That's a start, anyway.

[F. Rottles]

(Material added to prior post)

Admin note: You may edit this material into your original post...and it makes responding incorporating "quotes" much less unwieldy. I'll do it for you this time. Thanks

[rbshirley]

[jimlarsen]

There's a mathematical way of treating this type of information, and while I'm not a mathematician I'll try to show how I believe it's done. Looking at the second and third items, we assign a probility that that item would prevent the assertion that "Kerry was in Cambodia on a secret mission"3. Let from being true. These probibilities are only gueses, but they illustrate the point.

Item 2. Let's say that, given the noise, size and vulnerability of the Swift Boat, the probability of one being used for such a secret mission is 1 in 100.

Item 3. Let's say that the probability that Kerry could find a way to enter Cambodia that went undetected is 1 in 20 .

Now the total probability that the proposition is true is the product of the three probilities that we just decided on. That means we multiply the numbers together to get the combined probability . That gives us 1 in 2,000 as the probability that Kerry is correct. Now we look at how many missions Kerry could have been on during the time he was there, assume it's 200. Then the number of missions Kerry might have been on that were secret voyages into Cambodia is 0.1. Since there is no such thing as a partial mission this drops to 0.

More rigorous methods could be used to get better confidance, but my point is that there comes a point when we have enough reasons that it can't be true to conclude with certainty that it isn't true.
_________________
-I'm Jim, and I approve what I write, unless it's wrong.
Speak softly and carry a BIG STICK. -T. Roosevelt
Need some WOOD? -G. Bush

[stylin19]

The answer, to me, is very simple.

Knowing John Kerry, he would have used an illegal incursion into Cambodia, during his 1971 Senate testimony. He didn't.

He would have woven it into part of his "Hero" story. He didn't.

John Kerry never ever mentioned an illegal incursion into Cambodia until he did a movie review about "Apocalypse Now".
He essentially stole Martin Sheen's role and replaced it with himself.
_________________
U.S.M.C. - 1969-1971
RVN- 1970-1971

[F. Rottles]

Me#1 -- Thanks for the fixes.

The FAQ-building thread pointed to the Resources section of the forum. My list of questions about Kerry's Cambodia story is not my list of questions but those that have been used, to some effect, to counter the allegations against Kerry. Is this the appropriate place to continue summarizing how to deflate those particular questions?

--

For Q1, in sum --

The "anything is possible" question comes up a lot, of course. I like the idea of describing a few factors -- lack of a mission from chain of command, inappropriateness of PCFs for stealth runs, influence of climate and terrain on possible routes, lack of corroborating eye witnesses -- and the suggestions added here by others are excellent ways to bracket those factors: start and conclude with points that cut through the distractions.

1. Probability is so low it is nill for practical purposes.
2. Kerry has varied his story for political effect, yet he was silent about it in his 1971 testimony.
3. Kerry has made unsupported assertions so it is not up to others to prove a negative.

His variable stories depend on Kerry's word alone. And his word contradicts the firsthand experiences of all who have come forward -- including his "band of brothers".

I do have a research question about the Cambodia border.

Question:
Has anyone seen, or possess, a navigational map of the Ha Tien canal system from the war period? Something that would show seasonal waterlevels, larger streams, tidal influences, along the length of Rach Giang Thanh, for example, and for the routes near that part of the border.

[BuffaloJack]

Going into Cambodia without direct orders would have been out of character for Kerry as he wanted to minimize any danger to himself. He received no orders to go to Cambodia, didn't want to be in combat, and really wanted coastal duty because of its relative safety. None of the Naval units went to Cambodia until Kerry had already been stateside for many many months.
Kerry was never in Cambodia.

[eliptak]

Let's really simplify this. Would you, or anyone else in their right mind, drive the waterborne equivelent of a Greyhound Bus into Cambodia on a "SECRET" misson. This is so absurd even the Kool-Aid drinkers can't really believe it. There were so many more appropriate ways to insert a team in a target area that I can't conceive of anyone dumb enough to consider the use of a swift boat.

After three years in the infantry, I did an additional seven years as a counterintelligence agent. That's army MOS's 9666, 971A, or 97B, for commissioned, warrant, or enlisted, respectively for those that understand. On a 1971 extended TDY to RVN from the 441st MI Detachment, 1st SFG in Okinawa, I was attached to SOG as an intelligence analyst. As far as I knew, SOG was handling this kind of operation and personally never heard of the Navy being involved to any great degree. That doesn't mean it didn't happen; just very inlikely. Don't worry; nothing realy super secret here anyway.

To imagine "The Great Traitor" driving his amphibious Greyhound Bus into Cambodiaa is stretching my imagination more than my poor, little brain can handle. This is such a crock of s***, I simply cannot believe anyone gives any real credence to the idea of John F'n Kerry in Cambodia.
_________________
Ed Liptak
B/2/502
101st Abn Div
1966-1967

[kmudd]