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Slednfool
Seaman
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 198
Location: New Brighton, MN
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W.P. Wily
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 101
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 Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 4:05 pm Post subject: Re: Good Poll Analysis |
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He certainly makes a good case for it.
| Quote: | In my opinion, the polls were being deliberately gimmicked, in hopes of helping Kerry. In early August it looks as if there was an attempt to engineer a "post-convention bounce", but it failed and was abandoned after about two weeks. But I'm not absolutely certain about that.
The data for September, however, is clearly an anomaly. The data is much too consistent. Compare the amount of jitter present before September to the data during that month. There's no period before that of comparable length where the data was so stable.
The September data is also drastically outside of previous trends, with distinct stairsteps both at the beginning and at the end. And the data before the anomaly and after it for both Kerry and Bush matches the long term trendlines.
If I saw something like that in scientific or engineering data, I'd be asking a lot of very tough questions. My first suspicion would be that the test equipment was broken, but in the case of opinion polls there is no such thing. My second suspicion would be fraud. |
Click the link and check out the chart.  |
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ccr
Commander
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 325
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| Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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These spikes, peaks, trends and valleys are all normal and accurate.
A POLL IS NOT A PREDICTION -- IT IS A SNAP SHOT.
Public opinion is fickle. Events in the political environment will impact the polls very quickly. Sometimes a change sticks (for example -- SVPT permenantly altered the environment), sometimes it is temporary (for example -- the GOP post convention bounce for Bush and the smaller post first debate bounce for Kerry).
We are still 16 days out. That leaves many, many news cycles for events to impact the political environment, and determine the outcome of this election.
This race is close enough that the beneficiary of any major event between now and election day will be the winner.
Ideal world, you run a campaign and build a big enough lead that you don't have to worry about an event you don't control determining the outcome. That hasn't happened here -- for either side. If not for SVPT, Kerry would probably be in that position.
_________________
Whose side is John Kerry really on? Take this quiz and decide for yourself.
http://www.learnthat.com/quiz/
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