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Check out this poll!
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Barbie2004
Commander


Joined: 18 Sep 2004
Posts: 338

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 2:17 pm    Post subject: Check out this poll! Reply with quote

Check out this poll.

After you click on the link, wait about 5 seconds or so for the map to pop up. Then click on your state of choice.

It may not be "scientific" but it is very "interesting."

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp

Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
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jataylor11
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Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 856
Location: Woodbridge, Virginia

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All this means is that more of us still using AOL are voting for Bush.

I guess all those using less expensive internet providers may vote differently. .... or maybe this is the true split and the pollers are adhering to a pre 9/11 split of Rep. Dem & Ind.
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Chuck54
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Joined: 14 Aug 2004
Posts: 466

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This poll is as good as any. Scientific shmientific, rejoice over the poll...party your arse off, enjoy life...., then vote for Bush.

Of course the poll can't be accurate, who cares, any excuse to have a good time is good enough for me! Laughing Wink

If that poll is accurate, I won't survive the post election revelry.
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Barbie2004
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Joined: 18 Sep 2004
Posts: 338

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, I know it is not "scientific," but I do think it is very revealing.

Most of the polls the MSM uses only has a sample size of around 1,000 people.

This "straw poll" has around 210,000 people.

Bush 55% 478 EC The clear winner! Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Kerry 44% 60 EC

If I remember my statistics right, the closer your "sample size" gets to the actual "population size" the more validity it has.

The other thing I like about the aol straw poll, is that it knows "where you live" so it is able to allocate your vote(s) to your state, so it gives us a peek at what the distibution is across the country give those aol users.

It is true that you can vote as many times as you have screen names, but this is true of either side, so I am sure it probably happens with considerable frequency.

Nevertheless, I believe that it is more accurate than the polls the "pundits" use.

Final Note: I personally believe that Kerry is not getting above 30% of the electorate. What scares me is that I think that the MSM is trying to convince us that Kerry has more support than that, using the "polls" as their proof. Then I think they are going to try to steal the election with voter fraud.

I don't believe that I would call that poll "accurate," just more evidence that I think the MSM is attempting to manipulate the public.

Consider this: the MSM keeps claiming that Bush lost all three debates. I completely disagree with that.

No matter what the MSM tells us, we have to VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!


Last edited by Barbie2004 on Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:08 pm; edited 2 times in total
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shadowy
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Joined: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 301
Location: St. Louis, MO

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.jewishworldreview.com/mort/zuckerman.html

The Democratic party is not the party of the working man anymore. It's the party of the elites--not AOL users.
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Tom Poole
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Joined: 07 Aug 2004
Posts: 914
Location: America

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks to Chuck and Barbie. I needed a little pick-me-up. However, the left coast hat trick seems a bit much but works for dreams.
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Me#1You#10
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Joined: 06 May 2004
Posts: 6503

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 4:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Moving to Geedunk

Thanks
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Skypilot
Seaman Apprentice


Joined: 02 Sep 2004
Posts: 82
Location: Eastern PA

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like the betting mans' poll numbers, even though I'm not a gambler. You know they must be pretty confident to place money on the race.


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DaveL
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Joined: 25 Aug 2004
Posts: 300

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 4:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the other hand, this electoral college poll (linked below) has been showing a disturbing trend since the third debate, showing Bush gradually losing his commanding electoral lead, and Kerry now potentially garnering enough electoral votes to win the election!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It seems to be just too close to be confident in any particular outcome.
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JCJR
Lt.Jg.


Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 114

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DaveL wrote:
On the other hand, this electoral college poll (linked below) has been showing a disturbing trend since the third debate, showing Bush gradually losing his commanding electoral lead, and Kerry now potentially garnering enough electoral votes to win the election!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It seems to be just too close to be confident in any particular outcome.


I agree, it is very close and anything can happen before NOV 2.

However, electoral-vote.com has some pretty old results for some of the states. The most recent dates I see, are OCT 17, and many are a week or more old.

It is also worth considering that the electoral-vote.com guy is a Kerry partisan, though that didn't keep him from predicting Bush ahead a couple weeks ago. But it is possible be that his wishful thinking could affect his color map.
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Skypilot
Seaman Apprentice


Joined: 02 Sep 2004
Posts: 82
Location: Eastern PA

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
DaveL Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 4:57 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the other hand, this electoral college poll (linked below) has been showing a disturbing trend since the third debate, showing Bush gradually losing his commanding electoral lead, and Kerry now potentially garnering enough electoral votes to win the election!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It seems to be just too close to be confident in any particular outcome.


Sorry to say but I think you better find a better site than electroral-vote.com for unbiased info. Have a look at the political cartoons, there all all anti-Bush/pro-Kerry and there is not even one pro-Bush link!
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azTrish
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Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 133
Location: Arizona

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bush Country ... Map of U.S. Counties Won by President George W. Bush on November 7, 2000

http://www.fraudfactor.com/images/humor/ffbush2000counties.gif

Not too hard to believe as Gore had at least a chance back then, Bush was the unknown in all actuallity and the DUI last minute.. early call election.

This President is a likeable guy to average Americans. Kerry isn't.
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DaveL
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Joined: 25 Aug 2004
Posts: 300

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skypilot wrote:
Sorry to say but I think you better find a better site than electroral-vote.com for unbiased info. Have a look at the political cartoons, there all all anti-Bush/pro-Kerry and there is not even one pro-Bush link!

I have been following this website daily for months and always read all of the commentary associated with it...no doubt the webmaster is pro-Kerry big time...but I have not detected any particular bias in his published map and poll data, and in fact, Bush has been shown to have commanding leads for large periods of time, and the webmaster's commentary showed great disappointment during these periods. I am open to suggestions of other electoral college map sites...anyone know of any good ones?
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nightingale97
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Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 50
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see one problem with the map from a southern stand point and that is that no poll or map I have seen has Ms or La as "weak" Bush. I have lived in the south all my 50+ years and Bush will win big in both Ms and La. There are several other areas that are very different from the recent polls I have been seeing. Looks a little fishy to me but I'm just a voter not a poli-pundit.
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DaveL
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Joined: 25 Aug 2004
Posts: 300

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nightingale97 wrote:
I see one problem with the map from a southern stand point and that is that no poll or map I have seen has Ms or La as "weak" Bush. I have lived in the south all my 50+ years and Bush will win big in both Ms and La. There are several other areas that are very different from the recent polls I have been seeing. Looks a little fishy to me but I'm just a voter not a poli-pundit.

...and the map also shows Kerry "weak" in CA, widely expected to be strongly in the Kerry win column on Nov 2...the threshold the webmaster uses for "strong" support is a pretty substantial 10% lead. MS and LA fall just a point or two below this currently but have bounced around higher than this too...but clearly an 8-9% Bush victory in these states would be a landslide there.
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