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RogerRabbit
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 05 Sep 2004
Posts: 748
Location: Oregon
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 Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 12:58 pm Post subject: What the polls are telling us |
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http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneweb/mb_041020.htm
| Quote: | 10/20/04
What the polls are telling us
By Michael Barone
One week after the third and final presidential debate, there are enough post-debate polls to tell us where the election stands today. Here the results are gathered together by realclearpolitics.com. These are for the three-way pairings, plus the two-way pairings by Rasmussen, which doesn't ask a three-way question. Bush's percentages are listed first.
Fox News 49-42
Washington Post/ABC 51-46
Zogby 45-45
TIPP 48-46
CBS News 47-45
CNN/USAT/Gallup 52-44
Time 48-47
Newsweek 50-44
Rasmussen 48-47
Average 49-45
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Note that George W. Bush's percentages range from 45 to 52 percent while John Kerry's percentages range from 42 to 47 percent. In only one poll does Bush fall below 47 percent, which is Kerry's highest percentage.
It seems highly likely that Bush emerged from the debates a little bit ahead. Some Kerry backers argue that voters who are still undecided are likely to end up voting against the incumbent. But it's also possible that many of these will just not vote. And in any case, Bush is bumping up against the magic number of 50 percent. The debates helped John Kerry but evidently not enough to put him ahead.
Of course, these numbers are not etched in stone. They could change over the last two weeks. And John Kerry is close enough that it will take only a shift of a few percentage points to put him ahead. But he is not likely again to speak to as broad an audience as he did at the Democratic National Convention in Boston or the three debates in Miami, St. Louis, and Tempe.
These numbers are something of a rebuke to conventional wisdom. Most political insiders supposed that if Kerry was judged the winner of the three debates he would wind up leading Bush. Most political insiders thought Kerry did win all the debates (I didn't; I thought Bush won the second and the third). But, as with his convention, he didn't get the bounce they expected.
But there is something else that is curious about the numbers in the polls, when viewed over the whole course of the campaign since John Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination on March 2. Blogger Steven Den Beste has prepared an interesting chart. Den Beste charges that pollsters "deliberately gimmicked" the results, "in hopes of helping Kerry." I don't agree with that at all. But he has made another interesting observation. Eliminating some of the peaks and valleys of the Bush and Kerry percentages in realclearpolitics.com's average of recent polls, Den Beste shows that Bush's percentages have tended to rise over time while Kerry's have risen much less if at all.
He draws the Bush long-term trend line from a low point around 43 percent in May, when the media were full of stories about the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, to higher numbers around 45 percent in July and August, then up to the 49 percent level he has reached today. His long-term Kerry trend line runs through the 44 to 45 percent level in the spring to the 45 to 46 percent level in August, after the Democratic National Convention, to the same 45 to 46 percent level of today.
It seems curious that the percentages of the incumbent should rise while the percentages of the challenger have not risen much if at all. As a general proposition, you expect an incumbent's standing to change less, because voters already know much more about him than about his opponent. But that hasn't happened this time.
My tentative explanation is this. Bush's most effective opposition this year has come not from Kerry and the Democrats but from Old Media, the New York Times and the news pages of the Washington Post, along with the broadcast networks ABC, CBS, and NBC. Old Media gave very heavy coverage to stories that tended to hurt Bush—violence in Iraq, Abu Ghraib, the false charges of Richard Clarke and Joseph Wilson, etc. And during the first eight months of the year Bush did a poor job of making his case.
Then, suddenly, that case was made with maximum effectiveness at the Republican National Convention in New York—by John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani, by Zell Miller and Arnold Schwarzenegger, by Laura Bush and Dick Cheney and George W. Bush himself. Bush was able to get his message out unmediated by Old Media. (Fox News Channel had more viewers during the Republican National Convention than any of the old-line broadcast networks.) The message was simple: We need this president to protect the nation. Bush muffed the chance to deliver that message effectively in the first debate. But he made up for it in the second and third debates.
Kerry helped confirm the Bush message in the debates—by saying American action had to pass a global test, by saying that Saddam Hussein's Iraq both was and was not a threat, by arguing that Saddam would "not necessarily" have remained in power if Kerry's course had been taken. He remains the man who volunteered the words "I did actually vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it." So in all the polls Bush continues to score better than Kerry on handling the war on terrorism and on handling Iraq.
Today's polls, if translated into election figures, would produce something like a 51 to 47 percent Bush win. Interestingly, those are the percentages by which Karl Rove's party-building model, William McKinley, beat William Jennings Bryan in 1896. I have a theory—I can't prove it; it's just a theory—that in these polarizing times there are low ceilings on both of our political parties. Both are unacceptable to near majorities of the voters. My theory is that the ceiling on the Democrats is about 51 or 52 percent and the ceiling on the Republicans is a little higher, about 53 or 54 percent.
The theory about the Democrats can be tested by looking at the 1996 and 2000 elections, when the Democrats were the incumbent presidential party in times of apparent peace and apparent prosperity—the best posture in which a party can run. Bill Clinton in 1996 won with 49 percent of the vote; if you add in one third of the Perot voters (they were mostly anti-Clinton that year), you get 51 percent. Al Gore in 2000 won 48 percent of the vote; if you add in two thirds of the Nader vote, you get 50 percent. Starting with 1994, Democrats have not won more than 48.5 percent of the popular vote for the House of Representatives; they did that in 1996 and won 48 percent in 1998 and 2000 and 46 percent in 2002. John Kerry, currently averaging 45 percent in today's polls, which would translate into something like 47 percent in an election, is running some distance below the ceiling, in this view.
It's not so easy to test my theory that Republicans have a 53 or 54 percent ceiling. Their best performances in the past decade have been in House elections, 52 percent in 1994 and 51 percent in 2002. George W. Bush is not running this year as an incumbent in a time of apparent peace or, in public perceptions, a time of apparent prosperity. (Actually, the economic numbers are about where they were when Bill Clinton was running for re-election in 1996, but Old Media consistently report economic news more pessimistically when Republicans hold the White House than when Democrats do.) For Bush to be ahead after the pummeling he has taken from Old Media and from the Democratic-funded 527 organizations' $60 million-plus ad runs is a considerable achievement. But of course running ahead two weeks out is not the same as winning the election. For a definitive assessment of the polls we must wait for the election results.
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ocsparky101
PO1
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 479
Location: Allen Park. Michigan
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Well now the democrats are telling us now that we should not pay attention to the National Polls now. That we have to go to the local polls to find out what is happening. Well here is Michigan according to the Detroit Free Press. By the way a liberal rag here in Michigan and also in Wayne County which is the bastion of Liberalism in Michigan. Bush 49 Kerry 44. I think that at about this point John Kerry is trying to decide where he went wrong. Was it calling America's Heroes murderers and rapists or just something as simple as telling the American People to bring it on. |
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Jack Mclaughlin
PO3
Joined: 13 May 2004
Posts: 280
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 2:02 pm Post subject: |
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| The polls are telling us that more and more Americans are coming to the conclusion that in the battle against terrorism Kerry does not measure up. Also the image that con man Douglas Brinkley tried to conjure up as a bonafide hero in his book of lies and distortions, Tour of Duty, Kerry has been exposed by the swiftees as a total fraud and phony. |
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Son Of The Godfather
Captain
Joined: 29 Jul 2004
Posts: 540
Location: Camarillo, CA
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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Think of what a glorious message it would send the terrorists, Soros, MSM (are there differences?) if there was a Bush sweep of most (or all!) states on Nov 2.
Highly unlikely, but man, would that energize the nation!
Dan Rather: "And in a related story, Janene Garafolo and Al Franken were found deceased in a small apartment Nov 3... apparently involved in a suicide pact. The suicide notes are said to be "fake, but accurate"... Courage."
SOTG
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Geano
Lieutenant
Joined: 28 Aug 2004
Posts: 237
Location: Kentucky
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 3:19 pm Post subject: |
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Keep an eye on KERRY vrs FLU vaccine....no matter what the administration says, he's gonna harp on it, and in Louisville KY they were lined up three hours deep yesterday...even us Seniors....
This may have an impact...esp FLA do you think?
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MSM Lead Nov 3 2004 "Kerry Oval Office Hopes killed by 10,000 Mice..."
Candidate had declared mice "only a nuisance".
States they "moved too Swiftly".... |
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Jack Mclaughlin
PO3
Joined: 13 May 2004
Posts: 280
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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| To Son of Godfather: When this mission is completed, we are going to miss your spirited posts, your sense of humor but most of all your down to earth honesty. |
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Truegrit
Lieutenant
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 246
Location: Massachusetts
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 3:57 pm Post subject: Solid analysis |
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This is pretty solid analysis.
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Ted Harwood, Ph.D.
Enlisted, U.S. Army ('57-'60) |
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Anker-Klanker
Admiral
Joined: 04 Sep 2004
Posts: 1033
Location: Richardson, TX
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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When following these very confusing poll numbers, it might be well to remember that there is a basic conflict-of-interest in this whole process.
Pollsters, like the news business, are in it for what they can earn by selling their product (no interest, no money). And there is a lot of competition this year. Tight poll numbers produce news and demands for more polls - and there's your conflict-of-interest.
But when everyone says that the polls are tied, the guy who claims to have a break-through (i.e., non-tied) poll, is suddenly thrust to the head of the pack as the most news-worthy item of the moment.
Etc., etc., etc.
Bottom line though is that there's no commerical advantage for either the pollsters or the news media to have polling results consistently showing one candidate winning over the other.
Keep that in mind while trying to retain your sanity over the next week and a half. |
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sround
Commander
Joined: 27 Aug 2004
Posts: 328
Location: Stockbridge, GA
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:08 pm Post subject: |
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Just seen on FOX:
Amid a crush of chanting Kerry supporters...a fellow in a Flipper (dolphin) costume!
What a hoot!
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Mission Accomplished!! |
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Son Of The Godfather
Captain
Joined: 29 Jul 2004
Posts: 540
Location: Camarillo, CA
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Jack Mclaughlin wrote: | | To Son of Godfather: When this mission is completed, we are going to miss your spirited posts, your sense of humor but most of all your down to earth honesty. |
Thanks Jack! Enjoy your posts as well.
My sincere hope is that "the mission" will have planted the seeds of discontent with folks on a number of fronts...
Kerry being #1 (please don't let up on this a-hole even after the election!), MSM bias, Michael Moore, Hollywood crackpots, etc...
Uh oh, I think I have an urge to go see Team America now. 
SOTG
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diane in IL
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 102
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:47 pm Post subject: |
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I thought that Micheal Barone was a die-hard liberal. Maybe I'm wrong.. but if he is, I would say he has "seen the light"
diane in IL |
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srmorton
PO2
Joined: 07 Aug 2004
Posts: 383
Location: Jacksonville, NC
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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Maybe you have him confused with someone else. He is a prominent
conservative who is the co-author of The Almanac of American Politics
which first appeared in 1971 and has been published every two
years since then. He is very objective, however, and will call things
as he sees them, so it is possible that you have heard him say things
that are not flattering to conservatives. You can find his columns on
Townhall.com. A link to them can also be found on Drudge's website.
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Susan R. Morton |
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RogerRabbit
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 05 Sep 2004
Posts: 748
Location: Oregon
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 6:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I thought that Micheal Barone was a die-hard liberal. Maybe I'm wrong.. but if he is, I would say he has "seen the light" |
Michael Barone from Michigan is about as conservative as you could get and very intelligent to boot (as most conservatives are)
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