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Anker-Klanker
Admiral
Joined: 04 Sep 2004
Posts: 1033
Location: Richardson, TX
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 Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 3:41 pm Post subject: Landslide Factor theory |
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An interesting theory advanced on PoliPundit (http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=4612):
| Quote: | | The Landslide Faction: Might the normal tendency of voters to ‘go with the winner’ be magnified this year because many voters who don’t feel strongly about the candidates do feel strongly that they don’t want it to be a close election with all the attendant Florida style recount madness. They will cast their vote to try to give the front-runner a 5 percent win instead of a 1 percent win. … This makes the pre-election polls, and the media spin on the polls, more significant than ever, of course. (At some point, a lead by either Bush or Kerry might reach a tipping point at which it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.) It also militates against fancy incumbents-lose-the-undecided and Democrats-win-on-turnout theories that say Kerry is in good shape if he’s less than 3 down going into Election Day. That might have put him in good shape in previous elections. But in this election, it could cost him the Landslide Voters, who (unaware of fancy theories) will look at Bush’s 3 percent lead and decide to help the president win big. That may be one reason why the Kerry camp is working so hard to combat the sense that Bush is even slightly ahead in the polls. … |
I don't think I buy this theory, but I can hope it's true WHILE WE'VE GOT THE MOMENTUM. At least it gives the Kerry campaign something else to worry about.  |
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neverforget
Vice Admiral
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
Posts: 875
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| Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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The incumbent-loses-the undecided theory has only held true in 1980 when Reagan clobbered Carter.
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RogerRabbit
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 05 Sep 2004
Posts: 748
Location: Oregon
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| Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | The incumbent-loses-the undecided theory has only held true in 1980 when Reagan clobbered Carter. |
And that did not take a lot of thought on the voters part
ps Judging by my previous posts about carter one may think I have a great dislike for him - well rest assured I Do
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"Si vis pacem, para bellum" |
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sround
Commander
Joined: 27 Aug 2004
Posts: 328
Location: Stockbridge, GA
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| Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 8:57 pm Post subject: |
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Re: RogerRabbit
Say, were you the rabbit that attacked him?
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ATACKM
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 22 Jul 2004
Posts: 145
Location: Detroit Mi.
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| Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 10:02 pm Post subject: |
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I've decided that the election, while not a landslide, will be won by GWB by a very large margin. I base this on the fact that the MSM is telling people to be good sheep and vote for Kerry ! They are spinning all the polls, they are spinning all the news and honestly I just don't think that America is as stupid as the Media wants them to be!
Jimmy Carter is an exceptional man and a true man of peace. With that said I believe he was one of the weakest presidents in our history. His intentions were noble and his heart was even bigger but lets face it, Bully’s come out in droves, to include that Terror Rabbit mentioned earlier.
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ATACKM
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Chuck Z Ombie AC2000
LCDR
Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Posts: 426
Location: Northern New Jersey
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| Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 10:24 pm Post subject: |
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Dont be surprised to see Bush down a few points by next week polls.
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sround
Commander
Joined: 27 Aug 2004
Posts: 328
Location: Stockbridge, GA
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| Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 10:54 pm Post subject: |
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Re: ATACKM
With all due respect for your opinion about Jimmy Carter,
I would like to point out to you that there are several stars on
the wall in the CIA lobby in VA. They represent officers who
suffered a tortured death at the hands of the KGB because Carter
(along with the Church Commission) didn't think it was very
'Christian' to spy on one's neighbor.
A true man of PEACE? I don't think so. Just like Neville Chamberland,
proclaiming "peace in our time," Carter was/is a pacifist, and I very
much blame him for emaciating our intelligence and defense capabilities
which directly lead to 9/11.
Lastly, the only reason Carter got the 'Peace Prize' from the Nobel
folks a couple of years ago, is because the pacifist-socalist Nobel
folks wanted to make Bush look bad by going to war.
Just my $.01 (50% professional discount)
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ATACKM
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 22 Jul 2004
Posts: 145
Location: Detroit Mi.
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| Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:39 pm Post subject: |
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| sround wrote: | Re: ATACKM
With all due respect for your opinion about Jimmy Carter,
I would like to point out to you that there are several stars on
the wall in the CIA lobby in VA. They represent officers who
suffered a tortured death at the hands of the KGB because Carter
(along with the Church Commission) didn't think it was very
'Christian' to spy on one's neighbor.
A true man of PEACE? I don't think so. Just like Neville Chamberland,
proclaiming "peace in our time," Carter was/is a pacifist, and I very
much blame him for emaciating our intelligence and defense capabilities
which directly lead to 9/11.
Lastly, the only reason Carter got the 'Peace Prize' from the Nobel
folks a couple of years ago, is because the pacifist-socalist Nobel
folks wanted to make Bush look bad by going to war.
Just my $.01 (50% professional discount) |
You missed the part about him being the Worst President in our history!
My point was that he would make a great Peanut Farmer and is probably a really quiet neighbor but as a leader he lacks any kind of credibility. Mother Teressa was a good woman, Huge heart, good intentions! Wouldn't make a very good president though.
I guess to clear things up, I'd say that in a perfect world, Jimmy Carter would be a great President. "We do not live in a perfect world, and we never have."
Your anger is wasted here, because essentially I agree with you 100%. Our difference is that I don't think of Carter enough to have the hate for him that I sense from you. I should also add that Carter was an elected president. Blame for his administration should be shared with the majority of America that thought to elect him.
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ATACKM
Gulf War Veteran
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sround
Commander
Joined: 27 Aug 2004
Posts: 328
Location: Stockbridge, GA
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:23 am Post subject: |
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Re: ATACKM
Points well taken and noted. Perhaps it is that I have lived in Georgia
for the last 30 years that explains the (apparent) anger, as
some may extend the pacificist/failure to all Georgians, though
I like to think we've made up for Carter with Zell and NEWT.
I would certainly agree Carter is one of the best EX-POTUS'
we've ever had, in that he does loads of good work
all over the world, but I just wanted to (repectfully)
make the point that is it very unwise to elect a pacifist
as CiC. I'm hoping and praying Americans remember
that lesson on Nov 2. 
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ccr
Commander
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 325
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:35 am Post subject: |
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The undecided vote does go to the challenger -- but not at the presidential level.
The undecided rule works because they are undecided on the incumbent but don't know the challenger. At the presidential level, the challenger is well enough known for people to make a decision on both.
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Navy_Navy_Navy
Admin
Joined: 07 May 2004
Posts: 5777
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:48 am Post subject: |
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I will pray that this landslide theory is occurring to millions of Bush voters across the country who still haven't committed to actually going out to vote on election day.
I want a landslide partly for that reason - but mostly I want a landslide because I want John Kerry and his anti-military Komrades to suffer a humiliating defeat.
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Altering course to starboard - On Fire, Keep Clear
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minnie presley
Commander
Joined: 13 Jul 2004
Posts: 307
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:00 am Post subject: kerry |
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| we really need to start praying, that he is not elected, he had a crowd of 10000 in las cruces yesterday, some of his speech,I fought, a war I went to war willingly and I bleed, that BS I could not finish reading the jouirnal I was so angry, |
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ocsparky101
PO1
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 479
Location: Allen Park. Michigan
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:22 am Post subject: |
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| According to Dick Morris the problem with these polls today is that these pollsters are dealing with old less than 53% turnout election figures. This election is predicted to be in excess of a 60% turnout and that makes a hugh difference. |
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neverforget
Vice Admiral
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
Posts: 875
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:56 am Post subject: |
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I don't know about a landslide; I pray for it. However, I do know this:
Carter is a disgrace as a former president. He, and in many respects Clinton, constantly violate the tradition of former presidents not attacking a sitting president, especially regarding foreign affairs. Carter is not just a pacifist, he cannot find a Communist tyrant he doesn't shower with adoration. He was instrumental in validating an obviously corrupted re-election of Chavez in Venezuela. Now, personally, I think he is one of the most sour carpers and naggers of all time.
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jataylor11
Vice Admiral
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 856
Location: Woodbridge, Virginia
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 2:22 pm Post subject: |
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| ocsparky101 wrote: | | According to Dick Morris the problem with these polls today is that these pollsters are dealing with old less than 53% turnout election figures. This election is predicted to be in excess of a 60% turnout and that makes a hugh difference. |
Are these additional 7% the people suddenly motivated by hate of President Bush enough to vote? I doubt it. Most non voters are those people who think all politicians are crooked/evil and their vote does not matter.
There were approximately 106 million voters in 2000 out of 156 registered voters and 205 million people of voter age. This was a turn out of 51% of the voter age population, or 2/3rds of registered voters. The highest turnout of voter age population occurred in 1960. It has dropped every year since except for 1992, with Ross Perot on the ballot the first time, turnout was 55%.
In 2000, an estimated 4 million conservative Christian voters stayed home because of the last week surprise DUI charge and President Bush being an unknown. These voters now know President Bush. There are expected to turn out for President Bush this year --- this would account for 4% of the additional voters.
While there are a few people who say they voted for Bush in 2000 and will not in 2004, I do not think there are many of these people -- they are just spokespeople for the Kerry campaign. Their reasoning parrots DNC talking points. Christin Brietweiser(sp), one of the 4 NJ 9/11 widows, is one example. These 4 vocal ladies are on the opposite side of the issue of at least 40 other families. I think the 9/11 security voters would vote in the same rates as 10 to 1 for President Bush versus Kerry.
IMHO there are many more who voted for Gore or did not vote that will now vote for President Bush, versus the reverse (my household and many of the Swift Vets included). Also, IMHO I believe there are more non-voters motivated to vote these year on the issue of national security/war on terrorism. This is an issue that favors President Bush 2 to 1 or 3 to 1. The largest jump in new voter registration I have see is about 10%. IMHO those "security moms" for President Bush substantially out number the anti-Iraq (pro -terrorism) voters.
What have internal polls shown us:
President Bush is doubling his votes in the African-American community
President Bush is slightly ahead or tied in the female vote
Where is Kerry getting an increase in voters?
Think about the additional 5 million people who turned out to vote for Perot the first time that did not vote before or since. Think about the Perot voters you know. Would you describe the Perot voters as extreme liberals? anti-war? favoring global tests and global government? pro-communist? pro-socialist?
IMHO if an additional 5 million "Perot" voters come back to the polls I do not see them motivated there by Kerry. Kerry is just more of the same extreme liberal from Massachusetts. These 5 million plus the 4 million conservative Christians would raise voter turnout to 60%. IMHO President Bush captures at least 6 million of these votes (I actually think he gets about 7.5 million of these votes) --- This is a landslide for President Bush. |
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