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GoEagles
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Posts: 147
Location: Philadelphia
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 Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:41 pm Post subject: analysis of polls |
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6-months ago, I thought whoever won 2 of the 3 big swing states - PA, OH and Florida will win the election. That is not necessarily true anymore.
The way I see it, Bush has 227 EV's pretty solid, with the following swing states:
- FL - 27
- OH - 20
- MN - 10
- WI - 10
- IA - 7
- NM - 5
- NH - 4
(total of 83 ev's in these 7 swing states)
My realistic prediction is PA, MI, and NJ will all go to Kerry. This means that Florida is critical for Bush to win the election (duh).
If Bush wins Florida, he only needs another 16 ev's to wins the election, he can get that if
- he then wins Ohio or
- he then wins 2 of - WI, MN, IA or
- he then wins NM and NH and one of WI, MN, IA
Overall then, if he wins Florida, he will most likely win the election. If he doesn't win Florida, he can still win if he gets 43 ev's of the remaining 57 ev's - to do so, he would need to win OH, WI, MN and one of IA, NM or NH. This would be tough to get all of those. It all comes down to Florida, IMO.
_________________
"We cannot win this election" - John Fraud Kerry 11/3/04
Would you have gone to war with Iraq?
"You bet we might have" - John Fraud Kerry |
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jataylor11
Vice Admiral
Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 856
Location: Woodbridge, Virginia
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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President Bush is leading in by at least a couple of points in IA (7), WI (10), NM (5), MN (10) -- this totals 32 points -- this makes his total 259 this means he only needs to win one of Fl, PA or OH
Plus Hawaii is in play (4)
Kerry has too many states to try to cover. All the polls have always under valued Republican votes.
I think there are people out there who will break for President Bush in order to avoid chaos both with the election and also in not wanting to change leaders during the WOT. --- not the barking moonbats -- but those Reagan Democrats and Independents who still love the United States of America and support our military/troops |
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rparrott21
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Posts: 760
Location: Mckinney, Texas
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Bush could win the election, even if he loses Ohio and Florida...by picking up states that Gore barely won......can't remember, but I heard it this morning. |
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Wind Walker
Seaman Recruit
Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Posts: 33
Location: Florida
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:32 pm Post subject: |
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The most important thing to remember is that this is going to be a close race, and we must get out & VOTE!
We all like to take our pot-shots at the DNC, but in reality they are working hard on getting out their voters (along with a high probabilty of some extra's) on Nov 2nd.
Drag Any & EveryOne you possibly can to vote for Bush, and report any & all problems (if any arrises).
This is a MUST PEOPLE............FOR REAL........WE HAVE TO OVERLOAD THE VOTES THIS TIME TO AVOID ANY CONFLICTS........WE NEED A LANDSLIDE!!!!!
Battle Ground States, Swing States, Not Swinging States, Sideways States, Big States, Small States.......ALL STATES....REPUBLICANS MUST STAND TOGETHER NOW! 
Don't depend on the RNC to bring this election home for us, even though we are all sure they are doing everything possible. We must also pitch in, and do whatever it takes (home-phone banks, friend-to-friend correspondence, computer generated flyers of support, etc...).
DON'T TRUST THESE POLL NUMBERS!
A very large amount of the new-comers to the election process is young & are not accounted for in the polls. If the POLLS show BUSH with a 20 POINT LEAD on the 1st, he could still be behind, so go VOTE & Drag another VOTER with you!
Offer rides to our supporters.......set up car pools in advance!
This is the most important vote in your life.......ESPECAILLY, THIS TIME!
Have a great day,
Wind Walker  |
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RogerRabbit
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 05 Sep 2004
Posts: 748
Location: Oregon
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:33 pm Post subject: |
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http://jaycost.blogspot.com/
| Quote: |
...my (apparently) long-anticipated take on Hawaii...
Umm...ummm...ummm...actually there is not much to say. Two polls show Bush in the lead with a high percentage of undecided voters; both have high margins of error. This is a good sign for Bush, but unless I see some more evidence, I still think Kerry carries HI.
Why is Hawaii so close? Four likely reasons:
1. HI has a habit of voting for incumbent Presidents. They voted against Reagan in '80, for him in '88. They almost voted Ford in '76, and if it were not for Perot, would have voted Bush in '92.
2. HI has a popular new GOP governor, Linda Lingle.
3. There is a hotly contested mayoral race in Honolulu (so I am told) where the GOP is doing well (I am told).
4. Some 21% of Hawaii's residents work for the government. Most of these people are connected to the military, which retains a large presence there, which in turn probably effects the attitude of all Hawaians toward Bush and the war on "terrah."
posted by Jay @ 2:28 PM 4 comments
Bush Has Strong Advantage in Florida
I have completed my in-depth analysis of the registration situation in Florida. From it, I have concluded that Bush has a real advantage relative to his 2000 position in the Sunshine State. He will likely carry it once again.
Unfortunately, Florida is too big for me to do the kind of comprehensive analysis I did with Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire and other states. There is just too much data. It makes analysis, well...unruly. Furthermore, counties in Florida are really diverse. However, this is not to say that there are not some important points to be made about Florida. Overall, I think the state's registration statistics look very good for Bush. Just please bear in mind that any projections I make about specific regions, while they are based on actual data, remain somewhat rough.
Macro-Analysis of Registration Statistics
First, and most important, the GOP has closed the 2000 registration gap with Democrats by a little over 4,000 votes. This, as well as the migration of registered voters to "independent status," has amounted to a .6% net change in overall registration toward the GOP against the Democrats. The changes in partisanship have largely followed the partisan breakdowns of each county. In other words, red counties have become more red. Blue counties have become more blue. Changes in every county were very miniscule. Few counties became more red or more blue by more than 3% of their overall registration.
Thus, Florida provides even more evidence that the Democrat's 527s have been pure bluster. Time and again we heard them yim-yammering about "record registration" successes. We can add Florida to the list of states where this has simply not panned out. So far, we have also documented this in New Mexico, Minnesota and Iowa.
Second, it is important to note that independents are not much of a factor in Florida. Though they have increased as a percentage of the electorate (while the GOP and Democrats have both declined), they only account for about 15% of the entire electoral makeup. Thus, it is all an issue of turning out the party members. And it is here that the GOP has a distinct advantage this time around.
The Panhandle and the Southwest
Why was the election so close in 2000? Simply stated, many of the strongest red counties badly underperformed in turnout. State-wide turnout was a whopping 68.9%. Yet the the Florida Panhandle and Southwest Florida agged behind quite badly. These were, by far, Bush's strongest parts of the state and, by far, the lowest-performing parts of the state. Consider the following statistics about the Panhandle:
* Bush won these counties 65.0% to 33.6%.
* Average turnout in these counties was 62.2% -- a full 7% lower than the statewide margin. Many counties had radically lower turnout. Dixie County had a turnout of less than 50%. Four counties (Taylor, Washington, Hamilton, Madison) had turnout less than 60%.
* If these counties had performed on par with the rest of the state, Bush would have netted over 4,600 votes in this area. Expect these places to turn out like gangbusters this time around. You think people in Miami-Dade are upset about "voter suppression?" Well, they are not the only ones. They called Florida for Gore ten minutes before voting ended in the panhandle. This place is prime territory for the "72 Hour Program." Look for it to boost turnout significantly here.
* These places have increased their voter rolls by 40,000 voters, or 10.7%. There are now 418,464 voters in these counties. This growth has been overwhelmingly Republican. If these counties turnout at 69%, this time around, Bush should net 23,000 in the entire panhandle.
Southwest Florida, another GOP stronghold, also underperformed in 2000. In the last four years, it has also become much more Republican. Boosting GOP performance, and taking advantage of increased GOP populations should net Bush about 2,000 votes in the southwest.
All in all, Bush's base areas should give him about a net 25,000 votes.
South Florida
The strongest blue counties were Broward, Palm Beach and Miami Dade. Their turnout was much higher than the red areas: 64.6% for Broward, 67.0% for Palm Beach, 69.8% for Miami-Dade. It is extremely, extremely difficult to increase turnout beyond these levels. GOTV organizations run face-first into the law of diminishing marginal returns. So, it is difficult to imagine these counties exceeding these margins, especially if Bush has made inroads among blacks voters in Broward and Miami-Dade, which recent polling data suggests he has.
I expect Bush to do better among blacks, thus reducing Kerry's overall base to work with -- if Bush improves by 5% (and Kerry declines by 5%) among black voters this would yield him a net 75,000 votes statewide. Note that this estimate is conservative relative to recent studies. It presumes that Bush does as well as past GOP presidents have done with black voters -- 12% (rather than the 7% in FL he pulled in 2000). I do not expect him to get 18% of the black vote. If he did that, the election would be over by 10:30 PM EST on Election Day.
Thus, between a burgeoning Bush base and a shrinking Democratic base, I would estimate that Kerry begins 11-02-00 by roughly 100,000 voters in the hole relative to where Gore found himself in 2000.
Orlando, Tampa and Daytona
Where can Kerry make this up? If he beats Gore's performances in a few key swing sections of the state, he might be able to make up for the improving GOP base and the maxed-out Democratic base. Orange County, where Orlando is, went to Gore by 2%. It is a potential site for Kerry gains. Urban Orlando went heavily for Gore and the suburbs went for Bush. If Kerry can beat Gore's performance in the suburbs, he could make inroads against the Panhandle and prop-up his declining base.
This is quite possible for Kerry, though 100,000 net votes from Orlando is not possible. Bush actually underperformed in Orange County in 2000 (GOPers were outnumbered in Orlando by 1% and Bush lost the County by 2%). Look for him to improve here, despite the decline in the percentage of Republicans.
The fact that registered Democrats are now +4% in the area means that Kerry can possibly improve on Gore's result, but probably not by more than net 2% (if Bush performs at par relative to GOP registration, that is where this area would land). That would net him about 10,000 votes on Gore.
However, this presumes that Kerry does as well in minority-majority district FL 03 as Gore did in 2000 (Gore won it by 30%), which I do not think he will do. Kerry's loss of black voters is not limited to South Florida. It can hinder him here in Orlando as well.
More important than Orange County for Kerry is the Tampa area. This is the key swing section of the state. No candidate won any of the greater Tampa area's counties by more than 8%. Kerry could possibly improve here, particularly in the suburbs of Pasco, Hillsborough and Hernando Counties. He could also do better in Pinellas County, where St. Petersburg is located.
However, these -- like Orlando -- skewed a tad Democratic in 2000. Of the five congressional districts in this area, three of them lean Republican (FL 5, FL 9, FL 12) and one is a swing district (FL 10). Overall, the GOP outnumbered Democrats in Tampa by 16,000 registrants. However, the whole area only went for Bush in 2000 by 2,000 votes, which means Bush underperformed here (and is undoubtedly working on improving his result -- imporantly for Bush, 17% of this population is made up of military veterans). Loook for Bush to do better among Republicans here.
In what is good news for Kerry, the Democrats and the Republicans are now at rough parity in the area (the Democrats have netted 16,000 votes in the area, which is good news for Kerry). This means Kerry could split Tampa with Bush. This would net him about 2,000 votes. Much like Orlando, though, this presumes that Kerry does very, very well among black voters. Much of Gore's result in the area was due to FL 11 (comprising urban Tampa and St. Petersburg), which is 26% black. Thus, Kerry runs into the same problems here in the Tampa area that he has in Miami and Orlando.
Generally, this area, though Democrats have made gains in it, is just too split to counter the ostensible gains in the GOP base and Bush's inroads among the Democratic base. Kerry would have to improve significantly on Gore in FL 5, FL 9, 10, 12, and retain Gore's strong 2000 position in FL 11 to make up Bush's gains in the panhandle and his troubles with black voters. I do not see that happening.
Kerry has few options in the Daytona Beach area, i.e. Volusia County. It went for Gore by 8% last time around. Don't expect that to happen again. The GOP has actually gained 2.6% on the Democrats in Volusia, whose turnout in 2000 was 70%. So, Kerry has no new net voters and no real opportunities to increase base turnout in Volusia. The pro-GOP shift in Volusia should roughly counter-act any pro-Democratic shift in Orlando. That leaves Kerry with only Tampa to work with to make those 100,000 votes Bush nets in the Panhandle and in southwest Florida.
Conclusion
All in all, I just do not see a lot of options for Kerry. I find it very, very hard to believe he can get such high turnout in South Florida, as well as gain such a large margin of victory there. Meanwhile, Bush has tens of thousands of new voters waiting for him in the Panhandle and the southwest. The eastern coastline offers no answers for Kerry -- it counter-acts the pro-Democratic swing of Orlando. Kerry's only hope is to pull a major victory in the Tampa area. Like I said, I think this will be extremely difficult for him.
The evidence from the resgistration statistics and 2000 turnout statistics are sufficient for me to predict that Bush will win Florida. With a Democratic base that will likely vote a net 10% less Democratic relative to 2000, and a GOP base that will likely vote more frequently Republican relative to 2000 -- Kerry just faces too large a deficit.
Note for all of you poll watchers, if Kerry loses Florida by 100,000 -- he will lose it by about 2%. This means that you will see pro-Kerry polls between now and election day. It is a statistical inevitability. Roughly one in every six polls, actually, will be pro-Kerry. So, don't worry about the polls! Just keep your eyes on my rolling, unweighted average (which currently shows the likelihood of a Bush FL victory at |
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/
_________________
"Si vis pacem, para bellum" |
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sleeplessinseattle
LCDR
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 430
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:04 pm Post subject: |
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Wow RogerRabbit, thanks for that comprehensive link re: Florida - certainly looks hopeful for Bush and ousting Kerry...
Sleepless |
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Steve Z
Rear Admiral
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 687
Location: West Hartford CT
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:09 pm Post subject: Florida |
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Excellent analysis, Roger Rabbit!
There could be one more wild card that could increase GOP turnout in Florida--the Senate race. In 2000, a lackluster Bill McCollum lost the Senate race by over 250,000 votes, while Bush barely squeaked by in Florida.
In 2004, there is an open-seat race (no incumbent), and the Republicans are running Mel Martinez, a well-known Cuban-American who was in Bush's Cabinet. Martinez should galvanize the Cuban-American vote for himself, possibly with "reverse coattails" for Bush, and his Spanish-language ads could win non-Cuban Hispanics for himself and Bush as well.
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The traitor will crater! |
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PrinceLazar
Seaman
Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 164
Location: Daley's tainted lands
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:14 pm Post subject: Re: Florida |
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| Steve Z wrote: | Excellent analysis, Roger Rabbit!
There could be one more wild card that could increase GOP turnout in Florida--the Senate race. In 2000, a lackluster Bill McCollum lost the Senate race by over 250,000 votes, while Bush barely squeaked by in Florida.
In 2004, there is an open-seat race (no incumbent), and the Republicans are running Mel Martinez, a well-known Cuban-American who was in Bush's Cabinet. Martinez should galvanize the Cuban-American vote for himself, possibly with "reverse coattails" for Bush, and his Spanish-language ads could win non-Cuban Hispanics for himself and Bush as well. |
I agree that Bush looks quite solid in Florida.
BUT THE FACT IS THAT DESPITE THIS KERRY WILL SEND HIS LAWYER MAFIA OUT OVER THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.
We have to TURN OUT IN MASSES LIKE NOTHING BEFORE.
PLEASE, LET EVERYBODY YOU KNOW THAT YOU THINK WILL VOTE FOR ANYONE ELSE THAN KERRY GO OUT AND VOTE!!!
WE NEED A LANDSLIDE TO AVOID A LEGAL LITIGATION INTO THE NEXT MILENNIUM. Do you want to hear every time you watch TV, talk with liberals or whatever else that "Bush stole the election"!?!?!
NOT THIS TIME< NAA NAAA NEVER>
GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
_________________
---Prince Lazar---
Need some wood?!?! |
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ocsparky101
PO1
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 479
Location: Allen Park. Michigan
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Don't be to fast in counting Michigan out as a Bush win. Both the Detroit News and the Detroit Free Press have Bush in the lead. I was talking to the people in the Bush Victory Center and the Phone Banks are still running 3 to 1 on their calls for Bush. MSM would like for you to believe Michigan is solidly Kerry but it is not. Bush to be in Michigan on Wednesday also. |
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