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rparrott21
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Posts: 760
Location: Mckinney, Texas
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Fort Campbell
Vice Admiral
Joined: 31 Aug 2004
Posts: 896
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 Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for these. I'm collecting sites that make Electoral College Projections. |
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Steve Z
Rear Admiral
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 687
Location: West Hartford CT
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:50 pm Post subject: Fool me once... |
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I sincerely pray that all Republicans in the Florida panhandle go out and VOTE, no matter what the exit polls say in the Eastern Time Zone. If they're standing in line when the polls "close", they should stand there until they get to vote, and TURN OFF THE RADIO! The only poll that counts is that of the Secretary of State!
Rasmussen didn't look good today, but let's compare it with others:
Rasmussen Kerry +2
Zogby Bush +3
TIPP Bush +7
Gallup Bush +6
Average Bush +3.5. OK, where's the outlier in this sample? 
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The traitor will crater! |
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fr11
Seaman
Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 154
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Whacker77 wrote: | At least for now, don't get too worried about Rasmussen's poll. I think his poll has been good this year, but I think we just have to wait. This is the only poll that shows Kerry ahead. Remember, Rasmussen uses robots to poll. A person doesn't do the polling, the process is automated. If the trend continues, then start to worry. Kerry has won three daily samples in a row. He has not done this in more than three months. It could be that the randomness of polling and the weekend caught up to this poll.
Bush Kerry
46.3 48.1
46.5 47.8
46.4 49.3
Kerry's best day was yesterday. It won't drop until Thursday, but this the only poll that shows Kerry above the 46 percent mark. Bush has had a lot of 50 percent days in the past few weeks. Hopefully, they will show back up. |
Where'd you get this? Today is the only day that Kerry has lead in the Rasmussen poll - he has NOT won three daily samples in a row.
Today - Bush 46.4% Kerry 48.4%
10/24 - Bush 47.6% Kerry 47.2%
10/23 - Bush 48.0% Kerry 46.7% |
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rparrott21
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Posts: 760
Location: Mckinney, Texas
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Kimmymac
Master Chief Petty Officer
Joined: 01 Sep 2004
Posts: 816
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:22 pm Post subject: |
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As of today Bush JA rating is averaging 50.1 %. Gallup has it at 51%. 50% is the magic number in terms of re-election.
I put this out here just for grins, because polls, shmolls is how I basically feel. I feel like we should always work like we are 3 points down.
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The last refuge of scoundrels is not patriotism; it is finicky liberal humanitarianism.--Martin Paretz |
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sleeplessinseattle
LCDR
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 430
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:25 pm Post subject: Re: Rasmussen poll |
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| Steve Z wrote: | The Rasmussen poll looks scary at first glance, but it has been running in cycles, where Bush does well in midweek, and poorly on weekends. It's a three-day moving average, meaning that Monday's results were from polls taken on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Last Monday (Oct 17) numbers were low for Bush and high for Kerry, then Bush surged again. Earlier in the campaign, Rasmussen didn't poll on Mother's Day, and on Father's Day Kerry surged, but three days later Bush retook the lead. All the polls show that Bush has a big lead among married people, while Kerry leads among single people. Possibly, on the weekends, married people are busy running errands or going out with their families, while singles sit by the phone waiting for a date, and are ready to say Kerry when Rasmussen calls.
Rasmussen doesn't give "internals" for his polls, except (maybe) to Premium members. It would be interesting to see how many Republicans and Democrats are surveyed on any given day. We'll probably have to wait at least until Thursday to see whether today's Rasmussen results are really a bad trend or a weekend fluke.
Strangely enough, the Zogby polls, which are usually friendly to Democrats, show Bush leading 48-45, his biggest lead in a week. Yesterday Zogby also released state polls:
FL Bush 49-46
OH Bush 47-42
PA Kerry 47-45
MI Kerry 52-42
MN Kerry 46-45
WI Bush 48-45
IA Bush 47-45
NM Bush 49-44
Bush is leading the two big states of FL and OH, also WI, IA, and NM, and within striking distance in MN and PA. Zogby also showed Kerry leading Colorado by 4 points, but that's an outlier--every other CO poll shows Bush up by at least 6 points.
TIPP also shows Bush up 50-42, his biggest lead ever.
In any of these polls, a swing of a few percent might be due to about a few dozen people, who happen to either be home or not be home when the pollster calls. A better appreciation is possible when looking at the average results of several polls. According to RealClearPolitics.com, the average spread is Bush 48.6, Kerry 45.4. Bush has maintained a 2 to 3-point lead since the third debate.
http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html |
Good points all - when you look at the RCP averages Bush is having a good day today - his lead has extended and is looking good all over the Battlegrounds...that only bodes poorly for Kerry...also I love the Guliani move to counter Bubba's re-emergence. |
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sleeplessinseattle
LCDR
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 430
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:34 pm Post subject: Re: Fool me once... |
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| Steve Z wrote: | I sincerely pray that all Republicans in the Florida panhandle go out and VOTE, no matter what the exit polls say in the Eastern Time Zone. If they're standing in line when the polls "close", they should stand there until they get to vote, and TURN OFF THE RADIO! The only poll that counts is that of the Secretary of State!
Rasmussen didn't look good today, but let's compare it with others:
Rasmussen Kerry +2
Zogby Bush +3
TIPP Bush +7
Gallup Bush +6
Average Bush +3.5. OK, where's the outlier in this sample? |
For that matter everyone, everywhere should vote - battleground or not...we know that the Dems are gearing up for the legal shenanigans and the bigger a popular vote/electoral vote victory President Bush has the less legitimacy any such battle will have in the eyes of the people. If Bush wins by enough (say 5% or more in the PV and 25 or more in the EC) than the Dems will have to crawl underneath the rocks that they crawled out from under in the primordial soup & John Francois Kerrie with them - hahaha - that would be a great day. That will be one of the great days in my book.
Pray for peace through the elections here also!
It's not time to be complacent - let's fight through, push on across the finish line!
We need to ------>>
Donate to the Swifties,
"get out the vote",
distribute Stolen Honor as widely as possible,
talk with college students,
and people on the street corners and malls
and all the other creative things people are doing that I've noticed on this board!
Sleepless |
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PrinceLazar
Seaman
Joined: 24 Aug 2004
Posts: 164
Location: Daley's tainted lands
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:16 pm Post subject: Re: Fool me once... |
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| sleeplessinseattle wrote: | | Steve Z wrote: | I sincerely pray that all Republicans in the Florida panhandle go out and VOTE, no matter what the exit polls say in the Eastern Time Zone. If they're standing in line when the polls "close", they should stand there until they get to vote, and TURN OFF THE RADIO! The only poll that counts is that of the Secretary of State!
Rasmussen didn't look good today, but let's compare it with others:
Rasmussen Kerry +2
Zogby Bush +3
TIPP Bush +7
Gallup Bush +6
Average Bush +3.5. OK, where's the outlier in this sample? |
For that matter everyone, everywhere should vote - battleground or not...we know that the Dems are gearing up for the legal shenanigans and the bigger a popular vote/electoral vote victory President Bush has the less legitimacy any such battle will have in the eyes of the people. If Bush wins by enough (say 5% or more in the PV and 25 or more in the EC) than the Dems will have to crawl underneath the rocks that they crawled out from under in the primordial soup & John Francois Kerrie with them - hahaha - that would be a great day. That will be one of the great days in my book.
Pray for peace through the elections here also!
It's not time to be complacent - let's fight through, push on across the finish line!
We need to ------>>
Donate to the Swifties,
"get out the vote",
distribute Stolen Honor as widely as possible,
talk with college students,
and people on the street corners and malls
and all the other creative things people are doing that I've noticed on this board!
Sleepless |
YEp. even if you live in Gardner, DC or San Francisco, GET OUT AND VOTE..
WE NEED TO WIN THE POPULAR VOTE AS WELL AS THE ELECTORAL..
Don't give the lawyers a reason to contest this election 4ever!!!
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---Prince Lazar---
Need some wood?!?! |
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GiveMeFreedom
PO3
Joined: 23 Aug 2004
Posts: 279
Location: Wisconsin
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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ok, an unofficial Wisconsin poll conducted yesterday by my husband and myself.
My husband and I ride Harleys, and yesterday was probably the last day that we were able to ride and not have our hands and faces freeze.  I decided to ride on the b*tch seat yesterday so that I could pay more attention to the signs, etc. and take a tally of Bush supporters vs. Kerry supporters (besides I could enjoy the fall scenery more on the back!). We went for about a 4-hour ride (with a few stops).
So, here was my Bush-vote counting process (I tried to follow dmackto's thought process on this!):
Everyone knows that 75% of Harley owners are Republicans, so I counted 75% of the Harleys out yesterday as being for Bush. They got an extra point if they had an American Flag or POW flag attached.
If we passed a house with a Harley out front, I counted it too - or if there were multiples - 1 vote for each Harley (again using the 75% rule) counted as a vote for Bush!
Cars with American flags and/or 'Support our Troops" magnets counted as a vote for Bush.
Houses with American flags & no sign out front were a vote for Bush.
Businesses with "Smile, your Mother chose life for you", counted as 2 votes for Bush.
Billboards with "Choose life", counted as 5 votes for Bush (I figure there have to be at least 5 people supporting it, because of the cost of a billboard).
And of course, the actual Bush signs themselves.
Don't get me wrong. We went through 1 Kerry/Edwards town and there were a lot of K/E signs - I kinda felt like I was in that movie for the "headless horseman".
Anyway, the final tally is Bush - 52%, Kerry 48%. It is definitely going to be tight here in Wisconsin - get out & vote!
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GiveMeFreedom
http://www.anysoldier.com
http://www.operationac.com
Support our Soldiers!! |
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msindependent
Vice Admiral
Joined: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 891
Location: Colorado
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:45 pm Post subject: |
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| The polls are slanted and run by democrats. I do look at the averages on realclearpolitics, but that's about it. Remember last time, the media were calling it all wrong on election night. People out west please continue to vote no matter what they are saying. They will be trying to trick everyone. It's up to us now, let's bring it on home and defeat Traitor Kerry in a huge way. |
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blue9t3
Admiral
Joined: 23 Aug 2004
Posts: 1246
Location: oregon
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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Givemefreedom, way to go--sounds like a nice afternoon. I have a question for you, what if the homeowner was lying unconsious on his front lawn with a kerry/edwards sign busted over his head? how many points can I get for that?
(please hurry, the suns out and Im going for a ride) 
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MOPAR-BUYER |
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Nomorelies
Vice Admiral
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 977
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 10:04 pm Post subject: |
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I dont believe it.
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Nomorelies Make a donation HERE |
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ocsparky101
PO1
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 479
Location: Allen Park. Michigan
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Rasmussen? Wasn't he some wierd Russian? |
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ocsparky101
PO1
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 479
Location: Allen Park. Michigan
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| Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Rasmussen? Wasn't he some wierd Russian? |
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