SwiftVets.com

[GoEagles]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Ohio_Fall%202004.htm

According to the same poll, they were tied at 47 last week.

Zogby's latest in Minnesota has Bush down 5, which means Florida will be essential.
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"We cannot win this election" - John Fraud Kerry 11/3/04

Would you have gone to war with Iraq?
"You bet we might have" - John Fraud Kerry

[rparrott21]

Wait till Arnold gets there..Hasta la vista baby..

[coolhand]

Not necessarily. There are many crazy scenarios, but WI, IA and NM look good and he has an additional seven votes from reapportionment.

I sincerely hope OHIO poll is legit and a reaction the hunting photo op. Even Howard Fineman admitted the local Ohio radio stations tore Kerry apart after the duck hunt. State polls usually have a lag time and this drop may indicative of Ohio residents witnessing Kerry at his lamest and phoninest

[GoEagles]

[sleeplessinseattle]

[Fort Campbell]

This is interesting and comes from the Real Clear Politics Site:

In our initial electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection. At the time we suggested that one of the President 's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching some of the Gore states (IA, WI, MN NM, and OR), giving the President an alternate option of collecting an EC majority that Senator Kerry really never had.

As of today this alternate option, if necessary, for President Bush is starting to look more and more like a very real possibility. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play: eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP State Averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strategy in getting to 270 Electoral Votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.

While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.

Turning the conventional wisdom completely on its head President Bush could even lose all three of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan. Granted, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan, but with a poll in Michigan showing the President ahead by five and Mason-Dixon calling it a one point race, coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot (unlike PA and OH), it's not totally impossible. In this scenario Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 Electoral Votes and Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three electoral vote pick up.

While the Michigan option is a little far-fetched the other two are not. The problem for Senator Kerry is he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both those states. All of Bush's backup Electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses FL and OH and Kerry hangs on to PA and MI.


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Get out the vote in FL and OH!