SwiftVets.com

[PC]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html

I think all the red and blue states are in place. I'll agree they will stay that way. I don't know if the map will change but on 10/27 they had Bush at 234 vs Kerry at 228.

I can easily make the case, especially after checking the odds at tradesports.com, that Dubya has a real solid chance of taking Florida and Wisconsin. That means he can lose Ohio, New Mexico, Minnesota and New Hampshire and still win this election.

Now this doesn't say I'm giving Scary Ohio, but Dubya can do it without Ohio.

[rparrott21]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Fort Campbell]

[Nathanyl]

the electoral-vote guy is a Democrat that's become more partisan as the election has gone on. He's predicting Kerry taking Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio and I don't see that happening.
_________________
Bill Hershey
www.worldwar4.net

[Steve Z]

The predictions from "electoral-vote.com" have been (literally) all over the map, swinging wildly from day to day as new poll numbers come in. He doesn't average poll results like RealClearPolitics.com does, but accepts as "gospel" the last poll he gets his hands on, usually Zogby, which is notoriously favorable to Democrats.

For example, Zogby now predicts Kerry will win Colorado by 2%, whereas five other recent polls in CO predict Bush by 5% to 7%.

Using a single poll to allocate a state to a candidate, even if it shows only a 1% lead, is like throwing darts at the map. In a typical poll, a 1% lead for a candidate can represent the opinions of 10 people or less! You get a small group of Republicans going to a campaign rally away from the phone, and it throws the state poll to the Democrats! But does that reflect reality?
_________________
The traitor will crater!

[mcknz]

Swing states:
Florida - 27
Pennsylvania - 21
Ohio - 20
Michigan - 17
New Jersey - 15
Minnesota - 10
Wisconsin - 10
Iowa - 7
Oregon - 7
Arkansas - 6
New Mexico - 5
Hawaii - 4 (I know it sounds wierd, but polls show it's neck & neck)
New Hampshire - 4

Assuming all the other states are locked up, the Bush starts with 221, Kerry with 164.
So, even if Kerry wins all three biggies, Florida, Ohio, & Pennsylvania, that puts him at 232 AND IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN HE WILL WIN.
Bush could still get to 270 if he wins all the other swing states except Michigan, New Jersey and Hawaii. There are other scenarios you can come up with where Kerry takes the big 3 but still loses.
I found this somewhat encouraging.

[mcknz]

Also, if Bush wins all the big 3, but looses everything else, he still gets 289 and wins!!!

[Fort Campbell]

I am still thinking Bush will take Florida.

[mcknz]

I just look at the map again, and if Bush wins Florida and Ohio that puts him at 268 and then he only needs to win one more swing state. VICTORY AHEAD!!!!

[misako]

Intrade update for today is:
Bush to win 56.8 (+1.2)
Kerry to win 44.1 (-1.7)
Contracts go to 100 for winner and zero for loser.
States for Bush:
FLA 63.0
OHIO 58.0 (+3.0)
Wisconsin 57.9
My take is Bush to win with 295-310 Electoral votes, but needs us all to vote and get all our mates to vote too.
Limey bookies have odds for Bush @4/6 on and Kerry @ 11/10 against.
I reckon these futures and betting are more on target and better than chatter in polls. Will keep monitoring as my $ are at stake as well as our future as a strong and sane world leader.

[Largebill]

Don't be timid, I'm calling Ohio for Bush (with my vote). EC count will be well over 300 (342 is my prediction).

[Gryffin]

Kinda late for a first post, but I've been reading so much that I haven't had time to say anything. First off, you folks have done a helluva job throughout this whole thing, and you are all to be congratulated.

Now, for my point. I've read that one of the Electoral College voters (from West Virginia and a Republican, I believe) has already expressed doubt that they'll vote for Bush, regardless of the State's vote. It is possible, given that scenario that there could conceivably be a tie. Although remote, it still remains a possibility. So, under the Constitution if there is a tie in the EC, the newly elected House of Representatives wil vote for the President. Considering there probably won't be a drastic shift in the make up of the H of R, Bush would remain President. HOWEVER, under this scenario, the Senate will elect the VP, and the Dems would only need a shift of 2 seats to regain a majority. We could still end up with Edwards as the VP.

Personally, with the number of whackers that have come out of the woodwork for Kerry/Edwards, I would be extremely concerned for W's safety for the next four. Any thought on this?

[buffman]

Bush will take Ohio!
_________________
Never Ever Give Up
America First

[srmorton]

Should the EV end in a tie, which I seriously doubt, it is the current
HOR and Senate that would pick the POTUS and the VP, not the
newly elected one. That would give the victory to BC04. I really
think that Bush is going to win in a landslide. I think the internal
polls that Kerry's campaign is doing must be scaring them. The
fact that he has been campaigning in states that should be blue
and is harping on the false missing weapons story to fire up the
ABB crowd shows that they realize they are behind. I live in NC
and can vouch for the fact that they have decided to run some
John Edwards ads here. This is a complete waste of money
because NC is a solidly red state. They are just pulling out all
the stops to try to eke out a victory.
_________________
Susan R. Morton

[Gryffin]

While I agree that the chance of a tie is at best remote, I think it would be the newly elected Congress to make the vote under those circumstances. I say that for the following reasons:

1. On the Monday following the second Wednesday of December (as established in federal law) each State's Electors meet in their respective State capitals and cast their electoral votes-one for president and one for vice president.
2. Senators and Congressmen both assume office at noon on the 3rd day of January (US Constitution, Amendment XX, Sec 1& 2).
3. The electoral votes are then sealed and transmitted from each State to the President of the Senate who, on the following January 6, opens and reads them before both houses of the Congress.

Note that the entire Congress takes office at noon on January 3rd, and the EC votes aren't presented to Congress for tabulation until January 6th. The Republican majority in the House is not likely to be overcome without some kind of electoral disaster meaning Bush would remain POTUS, a shift in the Senate is possible and most likely making Edwards VP.