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misako
Ensign
Joined: 27 Aug 2004
Posts: 53
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 Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:58 am Post subject: intrade futures update @7.00 PM PDT |
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Update re futures and betting on Intrade:
Bush to win 54.4 (3.3)
Kerry to win 46.9 (-1.3)
Re states for bush to win:
Colorado 70.0 (+2.0)
Fla 61.9 (+0.9)
Minn 39.0 (0.0)
New Mex 51.5 (-1.5)
Ohio 47.8 (-0.2)
Penn 24.0 (-1.5)
Wisc 52.0 (-2.0)
Bush was low this AM but recovered and went ahead after dippy OBL video as I would expect. Can only hurt Kerry, I hope. Maybe new 527 "Kockroaches for Kerry" |
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Woodrow
Seaman Recruit
Joined: 11 Sep 2004
Posts: 47
Location: on the Chisolm Trail
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| Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 2:02 am Post subject: |
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| link please |
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misako
Ensign
Joined: 27 Aug 2004
Posts: 53
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| Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 2:07 am Post subject: |
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www.intrade.com, Woodrow, and they are based in Ireland and over 1 million trades re Bush today and some heavy $ ie folks doing $ 55,000 buys which is serious money.
Cheers and good luck and let's get the vote out. |
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GoEagles
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Posts: 147
Location: Philadelphia
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| Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 2:34 am Post subject: |
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The Iowa Electronic Markets are usually pretty good predictors as well. Here are the latest values, as of 10:15 EST, 10-29-04:
Kerry............0.467
Bush.............0.538
DEM04_G52...0.151
DEM04_L52....0.316
REP04_L52.....0.321
REP04_G52....0.217
**Contract definitions
DEM04_G52: Kerry receives 52% or more of the two-party popular vote
DEM04_L52: Kerry receives the biggest share, but less that 52%, of the two-party popular vote
REP04_L52: Bush receives the biggest share, but less that 52%, of the two-party popular vote
REP04_G52: Bush receives 52% or more of the two-party popular vote
_________________
"We cannot win this election" - John Fraud Kerry 11/3/04
Would you have gone to war with Iraq?
"You bet we might have" - John Fraud Kerry |
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Woodrow
Seaman Recruit
Joined: 11 Sep 2004
Posts: 47
Location: on the Chisolm Trail
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| Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 4:00 am Post subject: |
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Thanks MISAKO.
GoEagles, does that read Bush wins if election today, but Kerry wins the popular vote? |
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You GottaBeKidding
Rear Admiral
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
Posts: 692
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| Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 4:30 am Post subject: |
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| Well I'm hoping that the one with the four lines isn't right 'cause it's showing the Dems winning.... |
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FreeFall
LCDR
Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 421
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lrb111
Captain
Joined: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 508
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| Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 5:20 am Post subject: |
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| You GottaBeKidding wrote: | | Well I'm hoping that the one with the four lines isn't right 'cause it's showing the Dems winning.... |
caution there, That was yesterday (Thursday) final. They have kerry with teh popular, but not taking the election.
It is also the most volatile because there not very many people in it. So, if one person buys or sells, complimentary swings in Bush/kerry lines appear.
That's why the lines mirror image each other so much.
Go with misako's group, real people, a larger group, open market, and real cash.
_________________
said Democratic Chairman Terry McAuliffe. "It is inexcusable to mock service and sacrifice."
well, when even the DNC can see it,,,,, then kerry is toast. |
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blue9t3
Admiral
Joined: 23 Aug 2004
Posts: 1246
Location: oregon
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| Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 5:30 am Post subject: |
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UT OH ....back to tech. Hmmmm
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MOPAR-BUYER |
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GoEagles
Lt.Jg.
Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Posts: 147
Location: Philadelphia
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| Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Woodrow wrote: | Thanks MISAKO.
GoEagles, does that read Bush wins if election today, but Kerry wins the popular vote? |
No, it reads Bush wins if election today, but with less than 52% of the popular vote.
_________________
"We cannot win this election" - John Fraud Kerry 11/3/04
Would you have gone to war with Iraq?
"You bet we might have" - John Fraud Kerry |
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misako
Ensign
Joined: 27 Aug 2004
Posts: 53
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| Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Have tracked Iowa also, but that market is pin money for futures betters (Has maximum of $500 total allowed to bet). Intrade is far better indicator as big volume and serious money and will update every day from here on out and will try to do arond 6-7 PM PDT or PST whichever it turns out to be as most of day's action over by then. Happy roll back time to all. |
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misako
Ensign
Joined: 27 Aug 2004
Posts: 53
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| Posted: Sat Oct 30, 2004 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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Well, why should I keep all mates waiting? Here it is for 9.00 PDT
Bush to win 55.5 (+2.8 )
Kerry 44.7 (-2.3 )
Bush wins Pop vote 55.5 (+2.8 )
Kerry 47.0 (+.1)
Re states for Bush:
Colo 74.0 (+1.9)
Fla 61.0 (+0.3)
HI 29.0 (+6.5)
Iowa 57.9 (+1.9)
Minn 40.0 (+0.5)
Ohio 52.0 (+4.7)
PA 26.0 (+3.1)
Wisc 51.3 (-1.8 )
New Mex 60.0 (+6.4)
Bush electoral college 270+ 52.8 (0)
280+ 42.0 (0)
290+ 38.0 (+3.5)
300+ 29.0 (+0.7)
350+ 10.2 (+0.9)
So I reckon good AM for us and US and Bush and didn't want to keep everybody waiting. Let's keep voting and keep rolling and OBL did right stupid screw-up for Kerry. So much for islamic terrorist masterminds. Similar stuff happened in WWII for Nazis re Duke of Argyll and Hess and re Duke of Windsor, who got banished to Bermudas. Read Corville's "Fringes of Power" for details if of interest.
And on my bloody silly M/S keyboard if I type 8 ) I get an emoticon like so  !! |
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