SwiftVets.com

[neverforget]

After months of the tightest presidential election contest in recent memory, a new NEWSWEEK poll suggests momentum may be moving toward President George W. Bush. As the bitter campaign enters its final days, against the eerie backdrop of a surprise appearance by Osama Bin Laden, Bush’s lead is still within the poll’s margin of error, but it’s larger than last week. If the election were held today, 50 percent of likely voters would go for Bush and 44 percent would go for Kerry. (Ralph Nader would receive 1 percent.) That compares to a Bush lead last week among likely voters of 48 to 46 percent.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6367631/site/newsweek/
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US Army Security Agency
1965-1971

[ccr]

Here is a very interesting graph from RealClearPolitics.com that points to the election breaking towards Bush:



At the electoral college/battleground level, there is also some pretty solid evidence that things are breaking in Bush's favor.

The UBL and Assem the American tapes are also events that push things in Bush's favor.

All that said, this thing can still go either way.

By my count, Bush is solid to the tune of 221 EVs to 170 for Kerry and 147 swing. Neither candidate has closed the sale.

In addition, I will not be stunned to see an upset in a so called "safe state".

The good news is, Kerry has to make the sale for 100 EVs and Bush only has to do so for 49 EVs.

Here are my swing states: ME CD1, NH, PA, FL, NJ, OH, MI, WI, MN, AR, NM, HI.

My preditiction: 300-238 Bush with the popular vote going 49-47-1.

The wild card for all of this is how successful the Kerry forces are in stealing the election.
_________________
Whose side is John Kerry really on? Take this quiz and decide for yourself.

http://www.learnthat.com/quiz/

[Lily]

So a 6 point lead is a tie?

[Truegrit]

Good news. I supposed we have OBL to thank for a momentum surge towards Bush. I keep my fingers crossed that any other breaking news between now and Tuesday doesn't push people back towards Kerry, betrayer of Vietnam Vets, appeaser of leftwing dictators, and charlatan!
_________________
Ted Harwood, Ph.D.
Enlisted, U.S. Army ('57-'60)

[ccr]

[Ohio Voter]

Not necessarily attributed to OBL. Polls take some time to tabulate and put out. I think there is at least a week drag on the polls. Today's poll going toward Bush might be from Kerry continuing to blame Bush for the missing weapons. It was disgusting to say the least. Any thinking person could clearly see Kerry will say and do anything to get a vote, even to trying to fool a voter. Voters do not like that.

[Kimmymac]

Eight points is condisered a landslide...but 6 points is a tie.

Got it.
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The last refuge of scoundrels is not patriotism; it is finicky liberal humanitarianism.--Martin Paretz

[srmorton]

I do think that the weapons thing was a disaster for Kerry. I had
dinner with two dear friends of mine last night that are "flaming
liberals". They are both very intelligent. The wife has two masters
and the husband has a doctorate. They are both Christians - in fact,
the wife is the organist at my church and the husband and I sing in
the choir. We usually do not talk politics at all because we have just
agreed to disagree. The wife brought up the weapons thing and it
was clear that they did not know the "evolution" of the story. They
still think that terrorists took the weapons. I think that most people
are better informed than that and have paid attention to the new
developments in the story rather than listening to Kerry's distortions
of the truth. Any "undecided" voter that paid attention to the news
at all this week would be turned off by the way that the Kerry
campaign has handled this story. I do think it is the main factor
for the movement toward Bush that we are seeing now and OBL
will probably just solidify this. Americans are not going to let the
man who was responsible for the cold-blooded murder of 3000
people tell them who to vote for!
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Susan R. Morton

[PrinceLazar]

[Guest]