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Saturday, Oct. 30, 2004 12:29 a.m. EDT
Newsweek Poll: Bush Leads by 6 Points

With three days to go until the election, the Bush-Cheney ticket is gaining ground against the Kerry-Edwards ticket among likely voters in a three-way and two-way trial heat, according to the latest Newsweek Poll, taken over three days (Oct. 27-29).

In a three-way trial heat among likely voters, Bush-Cheney led Kerry-Edwards 50 percent to 44 percent, with Nader-Camejo at 1 percent. That's still a statistical dead heat and within the poll's margin of error.

However, it's up from last week's poll (48 percent for Bush to 46 percent for Kerry and 1 percent Nader). And in a two-way trial heat among likely voters, Bush-Cheney led Kerry-Edwards 51 percent to 45 percent. That's up from last week's 48 percent for Bush-Cheney to 47 percent for Kerry-Edwards, and within the margin of error.


Among registered voters the race is much closer: In a three-way race, Bush-Cheney led Kerry-Edwards 48 percent to 44 percent, with Nader at 1 percent.


In a two-way race, Bush-Cheney led 48 percent to 45 percent. That falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. Last week, Bush-Cheney and Kerry-Edwards were tied in a three-way race (Nader was at 2 percent) among registered voters at 46 percent each and in a two-way race at 47 percent each.

A strong, 59 percent majority of registered voters say they expect major problems or disputes over the voting on Election Day. Only 34 percent think it will go smoothly. And a 54 percent majority thinks it is likely that the vote will be so close that there will not be a clear winner on Tuesday night and the courts will determine the winner. Forty percent think that's not likely to happen.

Nine percent of registered voters and 6 percent of likely voters still say they have not made up their minds about who to vote for. Of those who already have decided who to vote for, 50 percent decided before the political conventions, 12 percent decided since the debates, 10 percent decided in September before the debates and another 11 percent decided in the summer, around the time of the political conventions.

For registered voters, terrorism and homeland security are the most important issues this year in determining their vote (24 percent).

Twenty-one percent say the situation in Iraq, 20 percent say the economy, and 12 percent say health care.

Regarding the situation in Iraq, the majority of registered voters (51 percent) think the U.S. did the right thing in taking military action against that country, down from 55 percent in the Sept. 2-3 Newsweek Poll (45 percent disagree, up 7 percent from the September poll).


Yet more people (55 percent) say that going to war there has not made America safer from terrorism (42 percent say it has). And 41 percent of registered voters say they are either very worried (13 percent) or somewhat worried (28 percent) that they or someone in their family might become a victim of terrorism.

As to pre-war intelligence that showed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, more registered voters (50 percent) think the Bush administration misinterpreted or misanalyzed it (43 percent say they didn't) than purposely misled the public about it (43 percent; 54 percent say they did not mislead the public purposefully).


And as to how long the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq, 28 percent say less than one year, 22 percent say one to two years and 17 percent say three to five years. Twelve percent say we should leave troops there more than 10 years and only 7 percent say we should bring them home now.

Meanwhile, a majority of Americans (56 percent) are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. at this time (39 percent are satisfied) and more Americans disapprove of George Bush's handling of his job (47 percent) than approve (46 percent). Yet more people would like to see him re-elected (48 percent, up from 46 percent in last week's Newsweek Poll) than not (46 percent, down from 48 percent last week).

However, among likely voters, the majority (50 percent) would like to see him re-elected than not (45 percent). And more registered voters believe that, regardless of which presidential candidate they support, President Bush will be elected (54 percent) instead of Sen. Kerry (30 percent).

For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed by telephone 1,005 registered voters aged 18 and older on Oct. 27-29, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. This Newsweek Poll is part of the Nov. 8 issue (on newsstands Monday, Nov. 1).