SwiftVets.com

[DaveS]

Bush 272 vs Skeery 268 in the Elec. Coll.

Want to make a prediction?

[rb325th]

Bush will win with a lot more of a margin than that.
He will take enough of the swing states to keep this Nation safe from terrorism and the interference of the U.N. under kerry regime.
_________________
U.S. Army 1983-1995, 11C1P/11H2P NBTDT

[Mary Ann Parker]

This is for grins...

In horse racing we call that "faint hearted"...

Make someone give you big odds if you take that to the window

Make it a non-nervous day

Mary Ann Parker

[mcknz]

Bush 54% Kerry 45%
Bush 378 Kerry 160
Bush 40 states, Kerry 10 states (Illionis will surrounded by a sea of red states)

[Inatizzy]

GWB landslide.........

He'll take 48 states. It will be Reagan all over again.

Mark my words.

[reconflyer]

I'm looking for an @$$whomping.

Still, I'll be satisfied with any nature of victory.

As we say in the flying world, "Any safe landing is a good landing".

Or, "It's better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than to be in the air wishing you were on the ground".

Reconflyer out...
_________________
Active duty AF 1986-Present
Enlisted Aircrew 1990-Present

[Timberwolf]

Lets not be faint hearted here
Bush 478
Kerry 60
Nader 0

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp

I just might have to switch from Earthlink to AOL.

[Aristotle The Hun]

Bush - 58

Kerry - 40

Bush gets over 300 EV

Sam
_________________
Deportè Monsieur Kerrè

[Aristotle The Hun]

Presidential Election: Predict Bush, Kerry State Battles
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/articles.aspx?aid=2566
By Mike Bayham

With most of the states having made up their mind on the presidential race in February, less than a quarter of them can truly be regarded as still in play. Because of the close proximity of the weekend before Election Day, which are days when many people are engaged in Halloween activities thus disrupting the sample, reliable polling data will not be available until likely voters are surveyed on Monday night, with the results not being made known till early Tuesday morning.

With even the best barometers of the American pulse skewed, my predictions on how the race will fall will be based upon polls going into the weekend, historic trends, and some educated guesstimations.

Bush´s electoral foundation consists of Utah, Wyoming, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, for a subtotal of 150.

So-called "leaning" Bush states are Arizona, Missouri, Arkansas, Virginia, West Virginia, Nevada, and North Carolina, a combined 65 electoral votes, and the President will sweep everyone of them. Though polls show relatively closer margins in these states, Kerry is making no effort to compete for them anymore, indicating his own numbers show that they are not worth trying to salvage.

John Kerry´s rock-solids are New York, California, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Illinois, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Maine (both congressional districts) and Maryland for 153 electoral votes. The Bush campaign has only surrendered one Kerry leaning state, Washington, worth 11 votes, for a minimum Kerry-Edwards showing of 164.

One rather curious battleground state where Kerry has been leading but has unofficially conceded is Colorado, 9 electoral votes. Once again, there is the possibility that Kerry´s internal polls show an uglier picture than the public surveys published in the media. Perhaps Ted Devine has clairvoyance since Colorado has swung back towards the President, upping his total to 224.

The states still up for grabs are Hawaii, New Jersey, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Oregon, worth 147 electoral votes.

The good news for Bush is that all he needs is 46 more to win. The great news for Kerry is that virtually all of them have strong Democratic inclinations.

Of these states, New Mexico has polled the strongest for Bush, with Zogby giving the president a 4-point lead. With Nader on the ballot in a state he got nearly 4%, Kerry might be throwing in the towel on New Mexico, kicking in another 5 electoral votes.

For Kerry, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota represent must-wins. If Kerry loses either Pennsylvania or Michigan, it´ll be over. Minnesota and Michigan have surprisingly been tilting towards the President, meaning if they do go to Kerry, he´s going to have to earn them by maintaining an expensive media and time-consuming physical presence so as to not give Bush the opportunity to fill the vacuum in these Great Lakes-Industrial states. Bush´s campaigning in these three states are a strategic feint to keep Kerry´s resources tied up, but at the end of the day, their combined 48 electoral votes will likely boost the Democratic ticket up to 212.

In 2000 New Hampshire contributed as much to Bush´s victory as Florida did. Having carried the Granite State by a scant margin four years ago, this was the Red state most likely to go Blue in 2004, especially with a New Englander on the ballot. Don´t take this as sour grapes, but with the favorable reapportionment of electoral votes, Bush can afford to lose New Hampshire´s 4 "big ones". Though it might not be pretty, I think Kerry will once again triumph in New Hampshire, for a total of 216.

And the last easy pick of the toss-ups is Florida. Minus Lieberman on the ticket, Kerry is going to have a tough time carrying the Sunshine State. Minus a premature call of the state while the panhandle is still voting, Bush should win by a modest margin. Unless those purloined 20,000 absentee ballots come into play, the legions of lawyers prepared to engage in a litigation bombardment might as well look into DisneyWorld´s parkhopper passes.

Brother Jeb was supposedly on the ropes two years ago and won by a landslide. Polls are showing the statistical tied state breaking increasingly for the GOP. Though Florida is once again a "must win" for Bush, he "should win" their 27 votes, raising the President´s electoral total to 256.

Though at this juncture shy only 14 precious electoral votes, here begins the hardest mile for George W. Bush.

The President must carry either Ohio or New Jersey or Wisconsin and one of the three medium sized states not locked up (Iowa, Hawaii, Oregon). The President might need a safety spread of 15 since a West Virginia Republican elector has threatened to bolt.

Ohio is going to be for John Kerry what Gettysburg was to General Lee. If Bush wins Florida and Ohio, there´ll be no need for snippiness in the election evening ritual phone exchange between the two candidates. Unfortunately, Ohio is the state where the potential for vote fraud and election controversy looms largest.

Most people have heard how the NAACP "outreach" efforts have led to the attempted registration of numerous deceased celebrities and cartoon characters, though this story is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of questionable election activity in the Buckeye State. If there is a sequel to Florida in 2004, reporters might as well prepare for a lengthy stay in the Columbus Econolodge.

Polls had shown Kerry with a slight lead in Ohio though an amendment that would prohibit gay marriage is on the ballot the same day. As the amendment is expected to pass by a healthy majority, the question is whether voters will associate this issue with Kerry´s social liberalism. If they do in spades, then Kerry will lose by a few points. As the most conservative of the industrial states and being home to the most Republican urban county in the north (Hamilton County) , I believe Ohio will stick with the President, thus deciding the election with a minimum 276.

But what if the loss of thousands of manufacturing jobs in Ohio is the issue that decides the state? If Ohio succumbs to the yearlong siege of economic doom and gloom the Democrats have laid, then Kerry stays alive with 236, though necessitating a virtual run on the table.

The two Blue states the Bush camp has coveted only slightly less than Pennsylvania are Iowa and Wisconsin. In 2004, Bush barely lost both despite their strong traditions of voting Democrat. This time, the GOP has set up an extensive grass roots operation in Wisconsin. Unfortunately for Bush, both states have started to go from Republican leaning to drifting towards Kerry, with a Saturday polling anomaly giving the Democratic nominee a ridiculous lead.

Bush operatives seem unfazed by the Wisconsin polls and have made a point of playing up Kerry´s "Lambert Field" gaffe. With Nader on the ballot in both states, these two agricultural states are Bush´s "Plan B" if Ohio goes to Kerry. Their combined 17 electoral votes are more than enough to substitute for a disappointment in Ohio and to give Bush another term, though just an our or two later had he won Ohio.

The last three states are considered "wild cards" as they have been surprisingly competitive in spite of their liberal reputation. As discussed in a recent column, Bush has a slight lead in Hawaii, which could be attributed to worries over North Korea´s drive for longer range missiles and nuclear weapons program.

Sweaty DNC bosses have made the embarrassing decision to spend money in a state Gore won by double-digits in 2000. Will desperate, last minute ads be enough to calm the nerves of a liberal, pro-SDI state? Or will Dick Cheney´s Sunday before the election appearance help nail down the Aloha State?

Admittedly there aren´t many scenarios where Hawaii could come to the rescue of either candidate and the election will be largely decided while Hawaiians are still at the polls. As much as my 2000-era naiveté would love to give the Aloha State to Bush, my hardened 2004 persona knows better. Four more votes to Kerry.

A swing of less than a quarter of a percent would have been enough to put Oregon in Bush´s column in 2000, with a major assist from Ralph Nader who drew 5%. Regrettably for Republicans, Nader didn´t make it on the Oregon ballot in 2004, but his name may still be written in. Because Oregonians vote via mail, the election is already over there. Polls have shown Kerry leading there beyond the margin of error, making it a safe bet that Nader won´t spoil anything in this Green State. Another seven votes for John Kerry.

Finally there is the great Byzantine republic of New Jersey, home to the fictional Sopranos and to government officials even more corrupt than the HBO characters. Late polls show a Bush movement there and the race is statistically tied.

Why might you ask? First, southern New Jersey is in Philadelphia´s media market, so residents close to the Pennsylvania border have been exposed to the President´s ads. Secondly, the northern part of the state is a giant suburb of New York City, making it a place where the 9-11 pro-Bush vote could be most pronounced.

Pessimists have complained that even if it is close, the Democrats will only steal it. However, I think that Republicanism carries such a stigma in the northeast that some poll respondents might be afraid to admit who they really support, thus leading to a Bush underpolling.

Throw in the sundry scandals of the state´s ethically challenged and orientationally confused governor and New Jersey could be the big surprise on election night...especially if the President makes a trip to Bergen County before November 2. Since I have written so much this year about the Garden State and their flagship university, I am going to personally indulge in this one state and call it for Bush, assuming he beats out the vote fraud margin of theft. Take that Rutgers!

So with my arguments laid bare with a sense of realism in all but one of the 50 states in the union, I hereby predict George W. Bush will receive 311 to John Kerry´s 227. But to be frank, I would not mind being wrong on the details so long as the electoral tally give Bush at least 270.

I keep saying over 300. This guy must be doing the same stuff I am.

Sam
_________________
Deportè Monsieur Kerrè

[lftrn97]

I'm betting that a lot of voters will become undecided the minute the curtain closes in the voting booth...the suburban mom who suddenly realizes that she can affect how the world 20 years from now looks to her kids...the quiet, church-going African American who faces their own moral code without the pressure of the loudmouths in their 'hood...the older "democrat" veteran who sees the faces of the swift vet pows before marking his ballot...the union worker who is free of the workplace propaganda....the polls have all of them for sKerry now but I believe their silent voices in the booth will trigger a landslide

[rhv5862]

I sure hope you are all correct. A Kerry win would be a total disaster for the country.

RHV

[Fort Campbell]

[Navy_Navy_Navy]

My sister has aol and she sends me a link to that aol straw poll every now and then.

They wipe the slate clean once a month, so I'd think that it's about to get cleared again.

A couple of interesting things about the aol poll - you can only vote once per main account.

And aol deluges their customers with Kerry ads.
_________________
~ Echo Juliet ~
Altering course to starboard - On Fire, Keep Clear
Navy woman, Navy wife, Navy mother

[rhv5862]

I knew there was a reson I canceled AOL.

RHV

[Schadow]

The numbers from the big United Kingdom betting book, "Betfair", show £2.3 million ($4.2 million) have been wagered on Bush, while Kerry has attracted only £680,000 ($1.25 million) in bets. Bush is now at 5 to 1 odds to stay in office, whereas gamblers can still get odds of 2-1 on Kerry to win.

Interesting, these Brits.

Schadow
_________________
Capt, 8th U.S. Army, Korea '53 - '54