SwiftVets.com

[ccr]

There are ten key states (ones the public surveys have the two candidates within the MOE and can go either way) where Nader is on the Ballot:

IA
MI
MN
WI
FL
NH
NJ
NM
NV
WV

HOWEVER....

The following national pollsters are only reporting the Bush/Kerry numbers:

Zogby
CNN/Gallup
Survey USA
Mason-Dixon

But, if you look at the polls that DO INCLUDE NADER, Bush's numbers look much better.

For example:

FL Quinnipiac | 10/27-31 -- Bush +8
WI FOX News | 10/30-31 -- Bush +3
WI Badger Poll | 10/23-10/27 -- Bush +3
IA FOX News | 10/30-31 -- Bush + 4
MN Humphrey Inst | 10/24-10/27 -- Bush + 3
MI Detroit News | 10/26-28 -- Kerry + 2 (Avg of all polls is Kerry +3.5)
NM Rasmussen | 10/26 -- Bush +4
NM Albq Jrnl | 10/26-29 -- Bush +3

One anomaly to the state numbers where the Nader factor is included and Bush performing better than the average of the rest of the polls is:

FL FOX News | 10/30-31-- Kerry +5
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[buffman]

From rushbo


RUSH: Poll analysis here: Get the New York Times with Bush up three; same thing in the Pew Research Center poll. Bush holds a slight edge over Senator Kerry, about a 1,925 likely voter sample. Bush with a three-point edge 48-45. Ralph Nader draws 1%, 6% are undecided. Let's look at state by state Mason-Dixon polls. These are state-by-state polls, and let me give you a little history: Mason-Dixon was the most correct pollster in 2002, picking the right winner in 22 out of 23 polls. Their average error on each candidate was 1.8%. By comparison in 2002, Zogby picked the wrong winner in 5 out of 17 races. He only got 12 right, with an average error on each candidate about 2-1/2%. So with that, Mason-Dixon getting 22 of 23 states correct in 2002, here we go, Florida -- and these results were out yesterday. Florida, Bush 49-45. Arkansas, Bush 51-43. Colorado, Bush 50-43. Ohio, Bush 48-46. Iowa, Bush 49-44. Michigan, Kerry 47-45. Missouri, Bush 49, Kerry 45. New Hampshire, Kerry 47, Bush 45. Nevada Bush 50, Kerry 44. West Virginia, Bush 51, Kerry 43. Oregon, Kerry 50, Bush 44. Pennsylvania Kerry, 48, Bush 46. Wisconsin, Kerry 48, Bush 46. Minnesota Bush 48-47. New Mexico, Bush 49, Kerry 45. If it happens that way, it's over, my dear friends. We've got Florida for Bush. We got Ohio for Bush. That's it. It's over, if Mason-Dixon is correct about this.
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