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~ ~ ~ EXIT POLLS begin at 2pm ~ ~ ~ Post here
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ProudDaughterofVet
Commander


Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 340
Location: New York

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:11 pm    Post subject: ~ ~ ~ EXIT POLLS begin at 2pm ~ ~ ~ Post here Reply with quote

Finally..we are here..now, as someone who used to do this type of work, I would like to offer some assistance in what to watch for:

Be advised that the campaigns will begin to receive exit polling at 2pm.
Check with drudge frequently during the day..he will update as he can.

Watch turn out in cities, urban areas..minority voting, suburban voting.
Watch the faces of the representatives of both parties, as they talk on tv. Already I am beginning to see the Washington Post say that the Evangelical vote is 50%HIGHER THAN they predict than in 2004..(example of what the spin will be in just one case)
Listen to the campaign representatives from both sides..LISTEN to the words they use..We think compared to "we know"

Subtle, I know..but by 6pm you will know..and I am confident of our victory already..revised..Bush 53% Kerry 47%

Have a great fun day..OH< HAPPY HAPPY DAY!!!!

PD
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coolhand
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Joined: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 255
Location: MA/RI

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't be a sucker for early exit polls. They are heavily weighted with college kids, union workers, retirees and other Democratic constituents. The DNC will spin this like craxy and try to suck the energy out of the central and western states. Beware.
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Inatizzy
Former Member


Joined: 28 Sep 2004
Posts: 439

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya know I have never been exit polled, but if I was, and someone asked me on my way out of the booth who I voted for, I would tell them it was none of their freakin business!
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nightingale97
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Joined: 20 Aug 2004
Posts: 50
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Drudge is saying Kerry within "striking distance" in FL and OH. That could be 4 points?..Not worried then.
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WallaceNails
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Joined: 07 Aug 2004
Posts: 89

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...



KERRY CAMPAIGN FINDS COMFORT IN FIRST BATCH OF EXIT POLLS

"Comfort"? - LOL!!!
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Nathanyl
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Joined: 24 Aug 2004
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

KERRY CAMPAIGN FINDS COMFORT IN FIRST BATCH OF EXIT POLLS


Read between the lines. The Kerry campaign is putting their best face on right now. Kerry is behind in Ohio and Florida.
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Me#1You#10
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Joined: 06 May 2004
Posts: 6503

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, and the Yankees were "competitive" till the third out in the bottom of the ninth.
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peter
Lieutenant


Joined: 22 Aug 2004
Posts: 214

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rush says Kerry up 1 in FL and Oh

But warns listeners first exit polls always wrong.
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GoEagles
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Joined: 14 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A lib posted this on another site, he said he got it from Kos, so don't treat it as gospel -

........AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
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ccr
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Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 325

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you go to http://www.nationalreview.com they have lots of state exit poll information.

HOWEVER....

There appears to be quite a bit of confusion and conflict.

Various reports on the early exit polls have:

OH:

Bush +8
Bush +1
Bush -4

FL

Bush -4
Bush -1

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW....

If you go to http://www.exit-poll.net (you may not get in because Drudge linked to the site and I think he crashed it Wink ) you will get nada data on their methodology and (most importantly) weighting of their samples.
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peter
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Joined: 22 Aug 2004
Posts: 214

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GoEagles wrote:
A lib posted this on another site, he said he got it from Kos, so don't treat it as gospel -

........AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57


who is "Kos" 60/40 in PA seems far fetched.
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ccr
Commander


Joined: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 325

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From....

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp

Quote:
SECONDHAND INFO [Ramesh Ponnuru]
I'm told that pollsters close to the Bush campaign think that Bush is up in Florida and New Hampshire, down in Wisconsin, even in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and "doing well" in Ohio. And they don't think that the exit-poll numbers on NRO about Ohio add up. Fwiw.
Posted at 02:37 PM

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GoEagles
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kos is http://www.dailykos.com/ - an EXTREMELY liberal anti-Republican website.
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angelnoel
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Joined: 30 Oct 2004
Posts: 174
Location: Bradenton, Florida

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DON'T BELIEVE EARLY EXIT POLLS! They are not reliable.

The Kerry family did not look happy after voting in Boston. The Bush family is absolutely glowing in OH and on arrival at White House. Must be the Internal polls we don't know about.

And Drudge is the last place I'll be checking any results, unless they link to RealClearPolitics.
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Leslie
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kos is an extreme left-winger!
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