FF1047
Lieutenant
Joined: 11 Aug 2004
Posts: 222
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 Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:16 pm Post subject: Some clarity from National Review ... |
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http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_11_02_corner-archive.asp#044521
| Quote: | I DON'T BUY 'EM [Jonah Goldberg]
Several people have sent me these exit numbers (which, I now see, are also posted at Wonkette): K - B AZ 45-55 CO 48-51 LA 42-57 MI 51-48 WI 52-48 PA 60-40 OH 52-48 FL 51-48 MICH 51-47 NM 50-48 MINN 58-40 WISC 52-43 IOWA 49-49 NH 57-41 They're interesting, but wildly implausible. PA is not a 60-40 race. Indeed, were these numbers real -- or I should say reliable -- it's entirely possible that they're good news for Bush. If they were collected uniformly the same way. Why? Because any tally that comes up with a 60-40 race for Kerry in PA right now has to be filtering in some pro-Kerry way that would have to be equalized by the time the final tally is reached. If that filter had Bush losing in PA by 20 points and MN by 18, presumably the equalization of the numbers would push the close calls in Fla, IA and Ohio into Bush's column. Then again, I sincerely doubt that any of that scenario is at work here. I simply don't buy these numbers. That doesn't mean that Bush may not be losing right now or that the Kerry people are unwarrented in their alleged happiness right now. But if all the hullabaloo is being driven by these numbers in particular, I would definitely take a wait-and-see attitude. I would also vote, then wait-and-see. |
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JJC
USNA class of 1980 |
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