SwiftVets.com

ccr · Commander Joined: 10 Aug 2004 Posts: 325

As much as the early exit polls will prove to be a black eye for the MSM, the reaction to them is going to be an even worse black eye for the blogosphere.

The reaction has been the online equivalent of shouting fire in a crowded theater.

The exit polls today are much, much better than they were four years ago.

As far as following the money goes, all I can say is that you have to look at the big picture. The smart money already voted -- the smart money doesn't day trade.
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the0point · Lt.Jg. Joined: 22 Aug 2004 Posts: 140

That post from The Kerry Spot shows that the Bush team has total confidence in a Bush win. Let's all calm down, take a drink of something...something strong...make a few phone calls to any friends who haven't voted yet, or remind them to vote on the way home from work (yes you, reading this, call your friends and tell them to vote if they have not voted yet, this election will be won because of the people, not the MSM), and then we can settle into a dicussion about all accurate, trusted, verified polls and actual vote tallys. I think we'll all be resting easier by tomorrow morning.

UPDATE: More from The Kerry Spot. Another GOP operative reports in.

WORD FROM OBI-WAN [11/02 05:54 PM]

Word from Obi-Wan Kenobi, longtime GOP operative:

What you're hearing about the unreliability of exit polls is accurate. They are focused on urban areas. The exit polls need to be conducted in person, and obviously the media, even with their combined resources, have to pick and choose which polling places to conduct those exit polls. They under-poll rural and suburban areas.
They also do not count early and absentee votes, which traditionally benefit Republicans.

In the 1990s, the CNN exit polls were considered so skewed and so bad that GOP campaign strategists regulary added at least two or three points to the Republican candidate's total.

He also noticed that the earlier garbage polls, with their 59-41 women/men breakdown, were equalized to the more likely proportional turnout, Bush would win several key states like Ohio in a rout.

Before anyone loses their optimism, wait until someone's reputation is on the line in making these calls on the swing states.

I would observe that blowing the call on Florida in 2000 didn't seem to hurt the networks' reputation too much.

I have also heard, on good authority, that one of the highest-ranking campaign folks on the Bush-Cheney campaign has said, "We will win Ohio. We will win Florida. And Pennsylvania is tied." Unfortunately, this person didn't provide numbers.

ProudDaughterofVet · Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:59 pm Post subject:

Great post from NRO..and quite encouraging..we will be okay..Bush will win, they would not be saying this if they did not mean it, something is in the air, and Kerry might have been popping the corks to quickly..

MOOD [Shannen Coffin]
Just got off the phone with a source connected to the White House. Political operations there is very confident and completely dismissive of the early day numbers, citing the skewing of the sample that has been discussed here. Confident that Bush will win OH and FL, that he will roll in WVa (ten points?) and that Mel Martinez will carry Florida. Not someone who is given to bluster.

This came from NRO..so hmmm, and BTW, Bush can still win even if he loses Ohio, but he must win Florida..and Ohio is now only +1 for Kerry, was +4..see, seems the dem counties came in a bit too early..keep the faith and if anyone has any info, please post. More info is better than guessing..
PD
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"We will not tire, We will not falter, We will not fail."
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Inatizzy · Former Member Joined: 28 Sep 2004 Posts: 439

Peter,
If Zogby really has already called the election for Kerry with a landslide electoral win (I would like to see the link please) then he is the stupidest person in the world. He's so partisan it stinks. Why do you listen to this garbage?

Steve Z · Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 11:02 pm Post subject:

For anyone scared of unfavorable exit polls: When the networks called Florida for Gore in 2000, then-Governor George W. Bush said, "That doesn't look like the numbers I've seen". The 6% "Gore Lead" extrapolated from the exit poll would have been 360,000 votes, but
the numbers from the Florida Secretary of State's office, at that time, showed Bush LEADING by 120,000 votes. True, lots of late-arriving Dem votes from Pea Brain County knocked that lead down to a razor's edge, but never got anything near what the exit poll showed.

What COUNTS is what ALL the voters did, including early voters, absentee voters, and anyone else who might not have met an exit pollster. In 2000, the exit poll was conducted on less than 5,000 people. If Kerry leads an exit poll by 1%, that's 50 people...if all the Floridians on this board go out and vote, the Kerry lead disappears!
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Navy_Navy_Navy · Admin Joined: 07 May 2004 Posts: 5777

Zogby was a one-hit wonder and a big contributor to the DNC and the Kerry campaign.

His brother is heavily into the Kerry campaign and Palestinian supporter.

I have as much faith in Zogby as I have in John Kerry himself. Wink

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peter · Lieutenant Joined: 22 Aug 2004 Posts: 214

RogerRabbit · Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 11:06 pm Post subject:

A reader points out that as of about 5:50 p.m., the AOL online exit poll has about 371,000 votes at 57-41 for Bush. The AOL poll is, of course, completely unscientific, but is it any less so than the exit polls whose numbers are flying around the web?
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peter · Lieutenant Joined: 22 Aug 2004 Posts: 214

Inatizzy · Former Member Joined: 28 Sep 2004 Posts: 439

Lily · Lieutenant Joined: 08 Aug 2004 Posts: 244

BenJaxBchFL · Seaman Joined: 07 Aug 2004 Posts: 198

Zogby has Kerry 311 Bush 213

Okay Bush wins FL Kerry 284 Bush 240

Bush wins Ohio Kerry 264 Bush 260

Landside my ass.
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The war against terrorism is not that Americans might die rather that we would alter our way of living. If we get to a point where we choose not to go out because of fear, our economy will sink and in the end so will our nation. Vote Bush.

knightowl77 · Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 11:16 pm Post subject: The Bottom Line is

If you haven't yet voted GO VOTE.

If you have voted, make sure EVERYONE in your family has voted, then start working on your neighbors. If we all do this we cannot lose.

No matter what the exit polls say-VOTE and VOTE NOW!

We Win!
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ProudDaughterofVet · Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 11:16 pm Post subject:

AS the Bush Campaign has been telling us all day..Drudge alarm now

TIGHTENING His words..seems our peep are coming out now..

BTW first polls close in Indiana at 7..at least we know that is a RED state all the way..

Zogby is an arse..Can not wait to see his face tomorrow.. Embarassed

PD
_________________
"We will not tire, We will not falter, We will not fail."
-President George W. Bush

www.timetotakeastand.blogspot.com

angelnoel · Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 11:17 pm Post subject:

Excuse me, but the polls are still open EVERYWHERE in the USA. In about 45 minutes the polls in the FLORIDA Eastern time zone close. The Panhandle of FLORIDA closes ONE HOUR later because they are in the Central time zone.

Zogby is a non-poll because of the small group polled. Think he also has an agenda.

Never fear, soon after 7PM EST the real news will be everywhere.

Keep the faith. Wink

Have a good stiff drink and order pizza delivered.