SwiftVets.com

[Schadow]

Leading up to the point when the US entered WWII, there was a broad sentiment for isolation. Avoid foreign entanglements and that sort of thing. Isolation was much easier to contemplate in those days of conventional arms and broad oceans. But times, they are a-changin'. We are under threat of death by entities with much greater capabilities of executing apocalyptic threats.

There was mention not long ago of a Pew Research poll which indicated 42% of Americans wished globalization would go away and were sympathetic toward US isolation. I'm not necessarily in favor of that idea but it got me thinking about the impact of total isolation. Here are some quickly conjured thoughts:

Canada and Mexico

Total isolation of the United States would no doubt be difficult due to our lengthy borders. However, recent posts in this forum spoke of a "North American Union" (NAU) consisting of the US, Canada and Mexico. This conceivably could be workable under isolation and would make available timber and petroleum resources while preserving a land bridge with Alaska (including ANWR). If the recent win of Calderòn in Mexico holds despite the Gore-like attempt by Obrador to overturn that election, Mexico could possibly become a worthy ally. Currently, at least, Canada has a government which is on friendly terms with us. Common borders with these two countries would be preserved (in a relaxed state) and these nations would, to an extent, retain their national identities. Canada's relationship with the UK would be ended.

When

Set a goal of seven years from the date of announcement of our intent to isolate to full implementation. Admittedly, such long notice has the danger of interference. On the date of full implementation ("I" Day) the following would be in place:

The United Nations

The NAU members would have dissolved their membership with the UN and the latter would have been expelled from the US.

Trade

All NAU trade with the world, both in and out, would have ceased. Could we get along without coffee, bananas, tea and chocolate, unless Mexico could provide? How about plastic toys from China and French wine? I'm sure that there are minerals whose loss of supply from abroad would be painful. Could I get along without a new Honda?

Travel

All international air and marine travel would have ceased. All passports and visas would be revoked.

Citizenship

During the seven years implementation period, expatriot NAU citizens living abroad would have to decide where they want to live. If they decide to continue to live abroad, their NAU member national citizenships would be revoked as of "I" Day. Persons holding dual citizenship would likewise have to decide where they want to live. Foreign nationals living in the NAU and desiring to stay would have to become citizens by one year before "I" Day. All others would be expelled.

Communications

International snail mail would cease. External communications would be restricted to electronic means and all such email, etc., to or from outside the NAU involving a foreign internet domain, would continue to be monitored by the NSA. Not much could be done about satellite transmission of television.

Defense

Notice would have been given to the world that existing mutual defense treaties would be abrogated. Robust ICBM and anti-ICBM assets would be emplaced and notice given reminding the world that all ICBMs bear return addresses and that the capitol of any country from which an ICBM is launched at the NAU, whether destroyed by us or not, would be reduced to rubble. NAU submarines would patrol the world's waters seeking and destroying undersea threats to the NAU homeland. Retaliation to SLBM launches from non-NAU submarines would have to be dealt with by means not yet defined. The NAU, in turn, would pledge non-aggression and non-interference in conflicts between non-NAU states. Ample notice of pending satellite and space launches would be given to the world with warnings against interference.

A robust intelligence satellite system would be emplaced and maintained both for sigint and visual monitoring of the entire earth. Anti-satellite attacks from foreign countries would be dealt with severely.

A generous territorial waters zone of perhaps 500 miles would be proclaimed, and rigorously enforced by fixed detection and our air, surface, and undersea assets. This brings up the delicate matter of what to do about our offshore possessions like Hawaii, Guam, and many others. They would probably have to be cut loose unless a way could be found to defend. Places like Cuba would wind up in our territorial waters and would be a special case to be determined. When Fidel croaks, perhaps that nation will go democratic and friendly relations could be resumed with possible acceptance into the NAU.

Energy

Building of many additional nuclear power generating plants would have been completed. Whether the NAU could produce enough hydrocarbon fuels is a question above my pay grade, but it's conceivable especially since the entire production would be used by the NAU.

Foreign Assets

NAU real property and business ownerships by foreign entities would have been sold back to NAU states. All NAU debt owned by foreign persons or entities would have been redeemed. (I know, that's a lot of money.) NAU would have established a common currency and outstanding $US, $CA and Mexican pesos would be declared worthless.

And, on and on. The more I think up features and effects of total isolation, the more bleak it sounds. But, will it become necessary for survival in this increasingly surreal world? And, would survival itself be survivable? It seems at times that the world depends on us for stability and, at the same time, hates our guts. If we were to stop playing that game and withdraw, would the rest of the world destroy itself and have us emerge as the "new world"?

Feel free to comment, including that I should get back on my meds.

Schadow
_________________
Capt, 8th U.S. Army, Korea '53 - '54

[NortonPete]

Debt.
Like or not we are borrowers in the world financial arena. For THAT reason alone we need to be THE leader. We need to be involved anywhere a negative outcome of events might threaten our economy.

There is only 1 days supply of copper in the world and it doesn't come from the US.

And then there is OIL .......

Some statistics -
[quote]
Total foreign ownership of US Federal deficit currently stands at 45% as of end of first half of 2005 COUNTRY OWNERSHIP OF U.S. GOVERNMENT DEBT

Japan $687.3Billion

China $252.2 Billion

United Kingdom $182.4 Billion

Caribbean Banking Centers $102.9 Billion

Taiwan $71.8 Billion

Germany $63.5 Billion

Korea $61.7 Billion

OPEC $54.6 Billion

Hong Kong $48.1 Billion

Canada $47.8 Billion

Grand Total $2,065.5 Billion

Conclusions:

* Foreign sources financed 54% of US Federal deficit in 2002, 73% in 2003, and 99% in 2004

* Total foreign ownership of US Federal deficit currently stands at 45% as of end of 1st half of 2005

* The US Government currently owes Japan $687 Billion, China $252 Billion, and Korea $62 Billion - together $1.0 Trillion

* The US Government currently owes $2.0 Trillion to foreign lenders
[\quote]

[dusty]

My thoughts.

Some would say that the reason Hitler got as far as he did is because of our isolationism at the time.
I don't think that in todays world, which as you rightly pointed out is radically different from the time before WWII as far as the global reach of many different nations. we can afford to close ranks and try to ignore them.
To me we pretty much have to stay engaged in a big way in world affairs for our own good. Leave em all alone and I think we know what they will do. They will come after us as a concerted, all for one...destroy America force. Our wealth is something they would just naturally have to have for themselves.
Much better to keep at least some of them on our side as long as we can.
IMHO anyway.

Dusty
_________________
Left and Wrong are the opposite of Right!

[Schadow]

Norton Pete and Dusty:

Apologies for the time-out. Cable just came back up after an outage of about 24 hours. *%#@%* thunderstorms.

The immensity of a move to total isolation would, I believe, preclude it from ever happening. Those 42% in the Pew poll either haven't given it much thought or are living in the 1940s. The economic impact alone would be immense, although with the world's highest GNP, the US would have a shot at paying everyone off.

I wonder, though, if even the threat of such a move would get the attention of our so-called "friends" around the world and cause them to start acting more like friends should and give more concrete help on the I-F threat.

Critical mineral supplies would be a concern although, NP, I don't think the copper situation is as bleak as you portrayed. The US and Chile are the world's largest producers with 18% each. Canada makes 8% and Mexico a lesser amount. The US is a net exporter. And, surprisingly, Western Europe is the largest consumer with Asia coming up fast. There are two good sources for copper info from the Bureau of Mines here and here.

Anyway, an interesting concept.

Schadow
_________________
Capt, 8th U.S. Army, Korea '53 - '54

[NortonPete]

Hi Schadow,
I agree with your comments. As to copper my favorite metal I must disagree. I'm in the A/C business right now and they price copper daily at the supply house. Its now 3.50 lb. The links are for 1990 data ( oh wish I was back in 1990 ) Below is some more current data but its still a year old. Copper went up 70% in the last few months. There is only one days supply and we are importing it. See below.





Salient Statistics—United States: 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005e
Production:
Mine 1,340 1,140 1,120 1,160 1,150
Refinery:
Primary 1,630 1,440 1,250 1,260 1,180
Secondary 172 70 53 55 55
Copper from all old scrap 316 208 206 186 190
Imports for consumption:
Ores and concentrates 46 72 27 23 (2)
Refined 991 927 882 807 920
Unmanufactured 1,400 1,230 1,140 1,060 1,140

Exports:
Ores and concentrates 45 23 9 24 110
Refined 23 26 93 118 45
Unmanufactured 556 506 703 789 820
Consumption:
Reported refined 2,620 2,370 2,290 2,410 2,270
Apparent unmanufactured3 2,500 2,610 2,430 2,550 2,290
Price, average, cents per pound:
Domestic producer, cathode 76.9 75.8 85.2 133.9 169
London Metal Exchange, high-grade 71.6 70.7 80.7 130.0 165
Stocks, yearend, refined, held by U.S.
producers, consumers, and metal exchanges 952 1,030 657 134 70
Employment, mine and mill, thousands 8.2 7.0 6.8 7.0 7.0
Net import reliance4 as a percentage of
apparent consumption 22 37 40 43 40
---------------------------------
this is when it was 1.90 its now 3.49
Events, Trends, and Issues: Copper prices trended upward throughout the year, and the COMEX spot price reached a record-high monthly average of $1.90 per pound in October. Despite a more than 3% estimated growth in world production of refined copper, production was insufficient to meet global demand, and the refined copper production deficit that had developed during the preceding 2 years continued through at least the first 3 quarters of 2005. Global inventories of refined copper held in metal exchange warehouses continued their downward trend, falling below 100,000 tons during the third quarter of the year. This shortfall occurred despite a decline in global consumption, which, according to estimates compiled by the International Copper Study Group,6 declined slightly for the first 7 months of 2005 compared with that for the same period in 2004. Strong growth in China and India was more than offset by reduced use by other significant consumers. Global mine production fell short of its anticipated growth owing to production shortfalls in the United States and South America, and mine capacity utilization fell to its lowest level in recent years. New capacity and increased capacity utilization was expected to reverse the global production deficit, and a modest production surplus was anticipated for 2006.


Heres a more recent link April2006

[Schadow]